Boogieman Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Chris Scott just announced that there is a 70% of over 1.5" of ice and gives a "worst case scenario" of 3" of ice accretion. I can't even imagine 3" of ZR. 1.5" is terrifying enough. This will not only affect everyone traveling, but even those who are staying put with the high probability of power outages. Where I'm at, there are a LOT of 50+ year old trees that even 0.5" of ice would just have a field day with. 1/4" is worrisome enough, let alone any more than that. It's right before Christmas. A lot of people are stuck home with hardly any extra money right now. Having to keep a generator filled up and running for several days isn't cheap. I know we couldn't run ours for more than a few days right now. I just keep hoping that this ice storm forecast busts low big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks guys for the info. I'm officially rooting for rain for YYZ. As awesome as it would be to witness the headache is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Here comes north Americas finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Just to be aware, several locations downstream have been busting low on temperatures, those who are riding the fence like here at Detroit could really be in for a surprise. The boundary with this weak system has been slightly delayed to shift south and east, so that is the other side of the coin. GFS Ensemble forecasts for tonight from yesterday looked a bit different than what actually exists now, at least at the 850mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks guys for the info. I'm officially rooting for rain for YYZ. As awesome as it would be to witness the headache is too much. Rain is out of the question at this stage. It's a toss up between how much PL we get instead of ZR. Have a safe flight. ZR starting up now and it's very slippery outside. Luckily YYZ has one of the best deicing in North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Still drizzle here in LA crosse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 this is going to be an amazingly dry run for ORD I'll say this, the one thing I didn't see coming a few days back was this drying trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Rain is out of the question at this stage. It's a toss up between how much PL we get instead of ZR. Have a safe flight. ZR starting up now and it's very slippery outside. Luckily YYZ has one of the best deicing in North America. Some short range models are indicating a period of RN at the onset of the event. Once we get past about 4pm tomorrow, it is safe to say that we are looking at periods of heavy ZR or maybe even PL depending on BL thermals with highest chance of PL north of highway 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z NAM is coming back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol, defo all the way back in central KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks guys for the info. I'm officially rooting for rain for YYZ. As awesome as it would be to witness the headache is too much.As a weather geek I'm torn. As much as I'd love to witness the power of a full blown ice storm, it would obviously be a difficult and trying time.That's the thing about weather, whatever happens, happens. Can't control it either way, might as well enjoy the natural wonder of whatever goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z NAM is coming back west. i guess a couple locations in OK being marginally cooler than guidance didn't matter after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 As a weather geek I'm torn. As much as I'd love to witness the power of a full blown ice storm, it would obviously be a difficult and trying time. That's the thing about weather, whatever happens, happens. Can't control it either way, might as well enjoy the natural wonder of whatever goes down. I guess many of us in Ontario won't have access to the forum. Goodbye everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 0z NAM is coming back west. Such a useless model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 lol, defo all the way back in central KS Advisory snows back to OMA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 i guess a couple locations in OK being marginally cooler than guidance didn't matter after all. I feel like this argument comes up every storm but I've yet to see it make any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 The NAM should just stop running. What a joke of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I guess many of us in Ontario won't have access to the forum. Goodbye everyone Most difficult thing of all will be not being able to post about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I feel like this argument comes up every storm but I've yet to see it make any difference. correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 As a weather geek I'm torn. As much as I'd love to witness the power of a full blown ice storm, it would obviously be a difficult and trying time. That's the thing about weather, whatever happens, happens. Can't control it either way, might as well enjoy the natural wonder of whatever goes down. You need to be prepared, it's winter. it's no joke. If you have major power failure, you will probably have to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Most difficult thing of all will be not being able to post about it! I do sincerely hope that everyone stays safe. It is on my mind that there could be fatalities out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I guess many of us in Ontario won't have access to the forum. Goodbye everyone Your one funny guy, you know that? I think your developing weather insomnia.No reason to overpanic my friend, think positive and stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I feel like this argument comes up every storm but I've yet to see it make any difference. it does make a difference when it comes to ZR ... which isn't really a big player in most storms...but looks to be a little more prevalent this system compared to most others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NAM further west? Lol and the GFS further east. Shaping up to be an interesting 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 You need to be prepared, it's winter. it's no joke. If you have major power failure, you will probably have to move. Oh I'm well aware of the potential dangers. Just trying to make the best of it is all. Like I said, you can't control the weather, so you might as well enjoy it... Well enjoy is a relative phrase. Ive been engrossed in thr models for days and its come down to the wire. But these model runs have really got my heart racing. Its exciting. In the words of DT, I'm just a sick twisted weather freak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 it does make a difference when it comes to ZR ... which isn't really a big player in most storms...but looks to be a little more prevalent this system compared to most others absolutely on a local and maybe even regional level, but halfway across the country... not so much. Weather isn't driven from the surface. in any case... lets see if the GFS can go east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Oh I'm well aware of the potential dangers. Just trying to make the best of it is all. Like I said, you can't control the weather, so you might as well enjoy it... Well enjoy is a relative phrase. Ive been engrossed in thr models for days and its come down to the wire. But these model runs have really got my heart racing. Its exciting. In the words of DT, I'm just a sick twisted weather freak. enjoy, and take pictures-video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I feel like this argument comes up every storm but I've yet to see it make any difference. I don't consider 5 degrees marginally cooler and in an instance where many locations are right on the edge of being rain vs freezing rain this point does merit value in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Oh I'm well aware of the potential dangers. Just trying to make the best of it is all. Like I said, you can't control the weather, so you might as well enjoy it... Well enjoy is a relative phrase. Ive been engrossed in thr models for days and its come down to the wire. But these model runs have really got my heart racing. Its exciting. In the words of DT, I'm just a sick twisted weather freak. It is going to be an interesting situation unfolding. I feel like a lot of the public is going to be caught off guard if it unfolds like the models are saying because the weather was barely a mention on all 4 evening news casts. As well almost all of them are saying Toronto will be predominately rain with the worst in the North, West and East. I would also caution against Rain being thrown out the window. Im personally not worried (though prepared, batteries, water, ext) because from previous borderline events the Lakeshore escapes. South of the 403/QEW has a good chance to see mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 NAM rapes Toronto with ice. It was the last hold out in the warm camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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