A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Sparks could fly in here tonight. Would love to see a super juices se run out of the nam tonight This thing is locked and loaded, the NAM may (should) trend se to match up with the GFS but everything looks to be unfolding as expected. EDIT: the QPF number on my final call is going to bust way high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Alek. Link to that page? I know its probably easy to find.... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Guelph Ontario could be the bullseye for a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Point forecast currently is 4-9" total through Sunday night. Sleet and Snow Saturday night and then all snow after 12am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Stuck at the airport and can't see jack with this blackberry. Can one on the Toronto members give me an update on the 18z suite? It showed about 1.25 to 1.50 qpf in terms of ice. It still had the core of the precip just south of the GTA, however, it was still pretty messy. Looked the same as previous runs. I think its time to invest in another phone SSC, haha. Finally back in Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Looks like I'll be warming the bench on the next two events. Seems temps are going to be 33°F overnight as a low and just as marginal till Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Already very slippery out downtown. Saw many people slipping all over the place. I can only imagine what 1.5"+ of ice accretion would do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 GTA gets destroyed. About 15 mm more ZR with the 18Z than the 12Z showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Point forecast currently is 4-9" total through Sunday night. Sleet and Snow Saturday night and then all snow after 12am. Ditto.South 'burbs had their dumping last weekend. Had a glaze on untreated surfaces last night, this morning and again this evening. Snowpack stuck around and has that glazed shine now in the headlights. Icicles intact on the roof. We're about as ready as we can get for a run at the high mark at least in N. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 GTA gets destroyed Wow that's impressive. I was in central Arkansas a few years back when northern ark got hammered. I don't wish that on anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Wow that's impressive. I was in central Arkansas a few years back when northern ark got hammered. I don't wish that on anyone I'm very concerned to say the least. Busiest travel weekend of the year. I fear the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 GTA gets destroyed. About 15 mm more ZR with the 18Z than the 12Z showed I sincerely hope it doesn't materialize. People have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm very concerned to say the least. Busiest travel weekend of the year. I fear the worst.I have never been to Toronto or the area. Lots of trees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Stuck at the airport and can't see jack with this blackberry. Can one on the Toronto members give me an update on the 18z suite? 18z GFS shifted SE slightly and is showing a storm with predominantly PL for the GTA, with maybe some ZR mixed in late. The RGEM trended wetter and is showing widespread 40-50mm of ZR through the city of Toronto, with 50-60mm down towards guelph, milton, brantford Etc. GGEM has 30-40mm of ZR, with some PL mixed in north of the 401. NAM did come in cooler, but not yet there with the consensus. Shows about 10-20mm of ZR with highest accums as you get towards and north of the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Chris Scott just announced that there is a 70% of over 1.5" of ice and gives a "worst case scenario" of 3" of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I haven't spent too much time looking at the Toronto ice threat, but after looking at a few soundings it's definitely looking pretty scary. This one's from 06z tomorrow night near Toronto. Looks like a classic freezing rain sounding. Fairly deep warm layer above a shallow, but effectively cold surface layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 In the lolly of 50-75mm between Toronto and London is the 401 Hwy. Running in this sector is a huge power line supplying hydro to Windsor and SW Ontario. I remember the lines in Quebec coming down many years ago from the weight. Please let the maps be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Chris Scott just announced that there is a 70% of over 1.5" of ice and gives a "worst case scenario" of 3" of ice accretion. That would be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Cyclone can you add a link to the NAM Soundings above. TKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 In the lolly of 50-75mm between Toronto and London is the 401 Hwy. Running in this sector is a huge power line supplying hydro to Windsor and SW Ontario. I remember the lines in Quebec coming down many years ago from the weight. Please let the maps be wrong. worst case scenario. 60mm can destroy transmission lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I see multiple 37s and a 38 right near me. I'm not saying it's 38 but it's quite warm. The point being stebo's "no way" chicago sees rain call was premature. I was wrong about Chicago getting rain. Like I said you are going to thoroughly enjoy your 35 and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I was wrong about Chicago getting rain. thanks stebo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 thanks stebo No problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Cyclone can you add a link to the NAM Soundings above. TKS It's from twisterdata. Just choose which model/hour you want and click wherever you want the sounding/hodo and it generates it for you. http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Every time I see Mr perfect on this site I think back to my WWF and wcw days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 No problem ....really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 In the lolly of 50-75mm between Toronto and London is the 401 Hwy. Running in this sector is a huge power line supplying hydro to Windsor and SW Ontario. I remember the lines in Quebec coming down many years ago from the weight. Please let the maps be wrong. Overhead power lines (the big structures) can handle 40-50mm of ice accretion. 15mm of ice accretion can snap power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Just to be aware, several locations downstream have been busting low on temperatures, those who are riding the fence like here at Detroit could really be in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 I'm nervous enough regarding ice here in the northern tier of counties in IN and hoping it stays north along the I-94 corridor. Slight shift can have significant impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 RAP matching up nicely with surface frontogensis Wouldn't be surprised if storm total QPF is around .5 or less for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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