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December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3


Chicago Storm

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Will be in your area tomorrow Bo, a few of us are planing on ridding the sleds over to East Jordon for lunch. The new snow today will help getting in and out of town. That trail can get pretty bare heading down close to town and the water.

where do you stay at (what town)?  I don't think you're going to find anything bare tomorrow. 

EJ got around 5" today.

 

Eating at Murray's?

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LOT...

 

WE HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO WARNING AND
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR LAKE AND KANE COUNTIES.

THE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL FEATURE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR NEAR
THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES OUT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT QUICKLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WAVER
AROUND A BIT ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE 850 AND SURFACE LOWS.
THEREFORE...I HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH
TRACK THE 850 LOW RIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS TRACK FAVORS NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS
FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP WITHIN THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE 850 LOW TRACK. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS...WITH
SNOW RATES LIKELY TO REACH OR EVEN EXCEED AN 1 INCH PER HOUR AT
TIMES...GIVEN THE GOOD COUPLING OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND THE GOOD FRONTOGENESIS. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO SUPPORT GOOD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WARNING
AREAS. I CHOSE TO LEAVE THE WATCH IN PLACE FOR LAKE AND KANE
COUNTIES. THESE AREAS MAY ALSO SEE 6+ INCHES OF SNOW...IN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTIES...BUT DUE TO THE POTENTLY FOR SOME SLIGHT SHIFTS YET
IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FARTHER
NORTHWEST TRACK...I CHOOSE TO HOLD OFF.

THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA...AND PLACES TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING POINT...SO IT APPEARS THAT ICING AMOUNTS
MAY BE LIMITED SOME...ESPECIALLY NEAR CHICAGO. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...I STILL THINK THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL TO HAVE AN AREA OF
SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS...OF 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-80 UP TO AROUND THE I-88 CORRIDOR. CLOSER TO THE LAKE AND THE
CITY ICE AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS DUE TO THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. IT APPEARS THE MAIN ICING
THREAT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THEREFORE...WE HAVE SOME TIME TO BETTER IRON OUT THE
AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
AN SPS.

THE SNOW THREAT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WARNING AREA APPEAR
TO SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH IN ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY
LIGHT SNOW OR EVEN FZ DRIZZLE GIVEN THE LOSE OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO DROP TO UNDER AN INCH BY THE TIME YOU GET
CLOSE TO CHICAGO AND INTERSTATE 80.

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it's not mine.

 

it's warm out.

 

definitely getting at least some plain rain with this one ;)

 

my 72+ hours .8" call is looking money.

Whose ever it is needs to recalibrate as it is about 2-3 degrees above every personal station in Chicago, and enjoy your rain I know you are going to love it.

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