WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I love the inclusion of Geos on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 How much of a difference would 4-6" of snowpack make in a marginal situation like the Milwaukee area would be in? I see ORD's surface temps are more marginal than 850s, but even if this were to shift NW, it is possible these models will not pick up on existing snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Looking at the sfc wind field and not isobars, looks like the NAM takes the sfc low over MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Looking at the sfc wind field and not isobars, looks like the NAM takes the sfc loop over MDW Very bouncy in the sfc low depiction/track. Almost gives you a headache lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Very bouncy in the sfc low depiction/track. Almost gives you a headache lol ' Yeah no kidding, makes you wonder what the GFS will do. 12z run was over Indy to SBN/DTX/nw OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 MKX went for warning, and DVN will follow with their afternoon suite. Can't post text though I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Anyone else having issues with the NWS site being extremely slow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ' Yeah no kidding, makes you wonder what the GFS will do. 12z run was over Indy to SBN/DTX/nw OH. The farther NW track is still in play but the NAM seems to be overdoing it. Preference is for the more consistent global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z 4km NAM Well that lines up now with the RGEM almost exactly from what I've seen. Nice little freezing rain lolli over my back yard too. Thinking I'm going to bail on my cottage country plans to watch this unfold. Could be a memorable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Anyone else having issues with the NWS site being extremely slow? Yep. I can get on NWSChat okay, but the web sites are extremely slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow ... Madison continues to prove to be the #1 location in the MW for block buster snowstorms.I don't think this is shaping up aa a blockbuster snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 MKX went for warning, and DVN will follow with their afternoon suite. Can't post text though I'm sorry. And meanwhile (as of 3:15) ILX is apparently still pondering their next move--their FD and HWO still haven't been updated. IMO I'd go at least a WWA for the counties west of the Illinois River for now--then wait and see on whether another one might be needed further east (including along the I-55 corridor). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Chris scott taking this threat very seriously for areas in and around the GTA. Say's it could be biggest ice storm in decades. Heres an in house model forecast he posted on twitter from TWN. Bb9ELNkCQAAXz_M.jpg People should listen when Chris Scott takes things seriously. He's not one to hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The farther NW track is still in play but the NAM seems to be overdoing it. Preference is for the more consistent global models. Only about a 90 mile difference, which is big for individual forecasts, but in terms of weather model error, not too horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 And meanwhile (as of 3:15) ILX is apparently still pondering their next move--their FD and HWO still haven't been updated. IMO I'd go at least a WWA for the counties west of the Illinois River for now--then wait and see on whether another one might be needed further east (including along the I-55 corridor). I would think they are going to put up some sort of headline NW of the IL River. Otherwise they really would not jive with neighboring AFOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 APX issues watches but cancels out WWA that was in effect until 8, all the while some of the heaviest snow of the day is happening. event total today 5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 FWIW the 18z NAM looks about 5-10 degrees too warm with current temps in southern KS/OK. 19 degrees at EWK north of ICT where the NAM has about 30. ICT as an example just how bad models are doing. Black dots are observed temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 LOT going with a warning in the watch area. 03 PM CST...DISCUSSION ON WINTER STORM WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.HEADLINE NOTES FOR STORM...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR:WINNEBAGO...LEE...OGLE...BOONE...MCHENRY AND DEKALB COUNTIES.THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KANE AND LAKECOUNTIES IN ILLINOIS.A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR:FORD...IROQUOIS...NEWTON...JASPER AND BENTON COUNTIES.RC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azcards1014 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Quick question, I love in Hamilton Ontario very very close to Lake Ontario. Lots of models are showing heavy Freezing rain/ ice for Hamilton. Will I get less, or more rain because of my close proximity to the water. Really appreciate it. Thanks a lot. Best weather forum there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Anyone know if TWC will be doing live reports from the snowy side of Winter Storm Gemini (thanks to their crazy naming system)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Snippet from IWX afternoon disco. When I read this, I thought Hoosier wrote it. AN ITEM OF STILL LOW CONFIDENCE LATETONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IS PTYPES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAINSHIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY.LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT SATURDAYMORNING AS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SOUTHERNPLAINS WHICH LENDS CONCERN IN DRIER WET BULBS BEING MAINTAINEDACROSS THE FAR NORTH THAT COULD SUPPORT FZRA. CURRENT THINKINGTHAT MORE WIDESPREAD FZRA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OFLOCAL AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO MONITOR LOW LEVEL WETBULB TRENDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR POSSIBLE IMPACTS. MUCH OFTHIS WILL DEPEND ON EXACT LOW TRACK AND EXTENT/TIMING OFNORTHERN/STREAM SOUTHERN PHASING THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ONRESIDENCE TIME OF SHALLOW COLD LAYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 LOT going with a warning in the watch area. 03 PM CST... DISCUSSION ON WINTER STORM WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. HEADLINE NOTES FOR STORM... A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR: WINNEBAGO...LEE...OGLE...BOONE...MCHENRY AND DEKALB COUNTIES. THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR KANE AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR: FORD...IROQUOIS...NEWTON...JASPER AND BENTON COUNTIES. RC No advisory farther south? It's a challenging system for sure but there's pretty good model agreement on the threat of fzra at least in the morning and early afternoon. After that who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ILX is now finally on board--and every county in their CWA is now under a headline. WS warning west of the Illinois River; Freezing Rain Advisory from the Illinois River to the I-55 corridor, and Flood Watch continues for remaining counties to the south and east. From their HWO: FLUS43 KILX 202111HWOILXHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL311 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013ILZ027>030-036-040-211200-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-311 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CSTSUNDAY...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRALILLINOIS..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTPATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THISAFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND ACROSSTHE AREA OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN VERYLIGHT...BUT SLIPPERY CONDITIONS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ONUNTREATED ROADS AS TEMPERATURES SLIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TOAROUND 30 DEGREES BY OVERNIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAYA WINTER STORM WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOTHE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THEPRIMARY THREAT...CONTINUING SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING WITHRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO A MIX OFFREEZING RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL SNOW LATER SATURDAYNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO A QUARTER INCHIS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR GALESBURG. BETWEEN 2 AND3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAYNORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES SOUTHEAST OFTHE ILLINOIS RIVER..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.$$ILZ031-037-038-041>043-047>051-211200-CASS-DE WITT-LOGAN-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-SANGAMON-SCOTT-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-311 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CSTSATURDAY...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRALILLINOIS..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTPATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLEOVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...BUTSLIPPERY CONDITIONS COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON UNTREATEDROADS AS TEMPERATURES SLIP JUST BELOW FREEZING DURING OVERNIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAYA WINTER STORM WILL BRING A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOCENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BEPOSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY SATURDAYAFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORECHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAYNIGHT...AND ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOWPOSSIBLE THEN. UP TO A TENTH INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLEESPECIALLY FROM I-55 NORTHWEST..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.$$ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-211200-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION-311 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRALILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAYHEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF TAYLORVILLE TO DECATUR TOCHAMPAIGN LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AS MUCH AS 4 INCHESPOSSIBLE NEAR THE WABASH RIVER BY LAWRENCEVILLE. THIS HEAVYRAINFALL COUPLED WITH RECENT SNOW MELT...COULD LEAD TO FLOODINGOF MANY AREA RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z GFS look like it went south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z GFS came a bit SE with the deformation snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z GFS came a bit SE with the deformation snow band. Could I see a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Could I see a map? try browsing around here. maybe some others can post links to their favorite snow maps. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It is noteworthy that the LOT watch upgrade to warning excludes Kane and Lake counties, which remain with a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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