WxMidwest Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 MKX Snow Output.. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/snowaccum/SnowMap_MKX.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Temps in the southern Plains are underperforming. Will be curious to see if this has a slight effect or no effect on the ejection point of our low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Temps in the southern Plains are underperforming. Will be curious to see if this has a slight effect or no effect on the ejection point of our low. really scraping the bottom of the weenie barrel now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Most likely outcome, I believe, leading wave continues to slog east and gradually collapses overnight and Sat with remnant over Lake Ontario, main low finds difficulty in pushing fronts back north and tracks over EVV towards TOL then turns east over ERI and just south of ROC. Precip in w NY all rain most of event ending as wet snow. Precip in s ON goes rain to fr rain to ice pellets to snow which may mean no particular location gets massive freezing rain but for GTA will speculate 10 mm rain, 5 mm fr rain, equivalent to 5 mm pellets then a 7 to 12 cm snow top up near end of event Sunday. Worst freezing rain likely to be London to Hamilton. Meanwhile would agree with earlier estimates on snow west and north of Chicago but could heavy up the WI amounts and expect 7-12 inches across central lower MI into parts of s/c ON north of a Sarnia to Guelph to Peterborough line. Detroit gets mostly rain and freezing rain topping off with 1-2 inches of snow near end of event. That trends to 3-5 inches in Pontiac to Lansing. Ohio and Indiana mostly rain changing over in north towards end of event. 1.5" to 3.0" across Chicago from south to north, 5 to 10 across southeast WI. There is maybe a 20-30 per cent chance that this would all go colder and back to a larger snowfall event, still don't entirely trust the northward drift on some model runs and leading wave is not the main player so whatever it does could be irrelevant. Recall that before the Chicago blizzard in 1967, Toronto (and Georgetown where I was then a high school student) hit 60 F on the 25th then went into a massive ice pellet-freezing rain storm on 26th to 10 inches of snow on 27th. Something like that is still possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 really scraping the bottom of the weenie barrel now Maybe. Sometimes it's just a local thing and other times it has ramifications downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This is a very tricky forecast for DVN's Eastern and Southern zones as the snowfall will cut off very sharply in those areas... tremendous warmth just to our S waiting to be advected NE into these areas and concerns about models always underdoing WAA. Ogle, Lee, Henry, Henderson, Warren, and maybe Knox counties are going to have some tremendous variances on snowfall totals...possibly 3-4" differences across the county I would guess is likely. NW Chicago zones are probably good for 2-4" down to 1-2" at best in the city itself. Okay specific calls.... ORD...1.8 MKE...2.9 MSN...6.3 DBQ...8.2 DVN...6.3 MLI...4.2 CID...8.2 ALO...7.4 IOW...8.2 OTM...8.2 BRL...3.9 IRK...4.9 De Kalb...3.2 Galesburg...2.2 DSM...4.7 LSE...5.1 Okay that's all I have right now off the top of my head with best guesses at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 So the 12z EURO text shows .59 to fall at ORD with surface temps around freezing and 850 temps at or below zero. Should any stock be put into that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 got the generator gassed up and ready. looks like i will probably need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 So the 12z EURO text shows .59 to fall at ORD with surface temps around freezing and 850 temps at or below zero. Should any stock be put into that? Check thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This is a very tricky forecast for DVN's Eastern and Southern zones as the snowfall will cut off very sharply in those areas... tremendous warmth just to our S waiting to be advected NE into these areas and concerns about models always underdoing WAA. Ogle, Lee, Henry, Henderson, Warren, and maybe Knox counties are going to have some tremendous variances on snowfall totals...possibly 3-4" differences across the county I would guess is likely. NW Chicago zones are probably good for 2-4" down to 1-2" at best in the city itself. Okay specific calls.... ORD...1.8 MKE...2.9 MSN...6.3 DBQ...8.2 DVN...6.3 MLI...4.2 CID...8.2 ALO...7.4 IOW...8.2 OTM...8.2 BRL...3.9 IRK...4.9 De Kalb...3.2 Galesburg...2.2 DSM...4.7 LSE...5.1 Okay that's all I have right now off the top of my head with best guesses at this point. Wow 5 inches in La crosse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This is a very tricky forecast for DVN's Eastern and Southern zones as the snowfall will cut off very sharply in those areas... tremendous warmth just to our S waiting to be advected NE into these areas and concerns about models always underdoing WAA. Ogle, Lee, Henry, Henderson, Warren, and maybe Knox counties are going to have some tremendous variances on snowfall totals...possibly 3-4" differences across the county I would guess is likely. NW Chicago zones are probably good for 2-4" down to 1-2" at best in the city itself. Okay specific calls.... ORD...1.8 MKE...2.9 MSN...6.3 DBQ...8.2 DVN...6.3 MLI...4.2 CID...8.2 ALO...7.4 IOW...8.2 OTM...8.2 BRL...3.9 IRK...4.9 De Kalb...3.2 Galesburg...2.2 DSM...4.7 LSE...5.1 Okay that's all I have right now off the top of my head with best guesses at this point. The ol' dual-pol is gonna be getting a big workout tomorrow night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow 5 inches in La crosse.. Yeah I think I mistyped that...just caught it, should have been 4.1 sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I like what John Dee is thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM is finally going to step off the gas with the wagons west idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM is finally going to step off the gas with the wagons west idea. one end to the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM is finally going to step off the gas with the wagons west idea. Chris scott taking this threat very seriously for areas in and around the GTA. Say's it could be biggest ice storm in decades. Heres an in house model forecast he posted on twitter from TWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 got the generator gassed up and ready. looks like i will probably need it Here too. Well, we'd need one that is, not that I have one. Sure wish that ice/snow line would be dropping south before tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I like what John Dee is thinking! MIDSNOW.gif So do I. I could definitely live on the 8-12" edge with additional on day 3. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If John Dee's maps end up verifying I will streak on live, local news Monday Night... I think he's way, way over done on those maps calling, by my eye, for some places in Eastern Iowa into Wisconsin getting 12-16" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If John Dee's maps end up verifying I will streak on live, local news Monday Night... I think he's way, way over done on those maps calling, by my eye, for some places in Eastern Iowa into Wisconsin getting 12-16" of snow. ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM shows a classic Dubuque to Madison special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 18z NAM is finally going to step off the gas with the wagons west idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow ... Madison continues to prove to be the #1 location in the MW for block buster snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Environment Canada just issued the 3:30 pm forecast package and it's calling for periods of freezing rain or ice pellets tomorrow night for Toronto. No mention of amounts, but there are amounts for rain, ice pellets or snow for other areas of the province. I guess they want to evaluate another model cycle tonight before putting in freezing rain amounts in the public forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 So the 12z EURO text shows .59 to fall at ORD with surface temps around freezing and 850 temps at or below zero. Should any stock be put into that? Euro has a huge dryslot wrapping into northeast Illinois from 6z to 12z Sunday. Either it's incorrect with its moisture fields or it's squeezing out way too much precipitation under the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Latest from WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Thats a nasty dry slot on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 DTX SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...MINUS WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE COUNTIES WHERE A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT. MAIN EMPHASIS IN LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT STRIPE OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL OCCUR ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FORCING WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ALONG THIS FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY PHASES WILL A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND OVERRIDE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...FORCING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH TIME LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES FORECAST BY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY TO SOME DEGREE...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR SIGNIFICANT ICING OVER PARTS OF THE CWA AS WARMER AIR OVERRIDES THIS COLDER DOME OF AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE OUTCOME OF THIS STORM WITH AREAS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE IRISH HILLS ON NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SEEING A BETTER SHOT AT SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSER TO 30 DEGREES LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE DO HOLD AT/AROUND 30F...A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM COULD CERTAINLY UNFOLD FROM BETWEEN M 59 AND I 69 ON INTO THE THUMB AS AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE ON THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA. RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE FURTHER SOUTH FROM AROUND DETROIT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO THE OHIO STATE LINE...WITH ANY FREEZING RAIN MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AS MANY AREAS HOLD IN THE 32-35F RANGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN WARM FROM THERE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND THE WARM SECTOR CLIPS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA EARLY SUNDAY. THE FINAL PHASE OF THIS STORM WILL COME SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORTS SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGS AT LEAST A GLANCING BLOW OF DEFORMATION FORCING THROUGH THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT PARTS OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY MAY RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FINAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH A LIGHTER MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY NORTHEAST INTO THE THUMB BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Latest from WPC That little speck of red in michigan is right imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Quick map for the DVN area. My basic thoughts based on the trends today. If it busts it busts, all in good fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.