December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 3

[cyclone77]

First call for here and the QC was 3-6", but good chance I may bust on that one.  Gonna stick with it for now though.

 

Specific calls...

Here 3.0"

DVN 3.5"

Hawkeye 6.0"

Madison 8.5"

Geos!! 3.5"

MKE crowd 5.5"

Chicago Storm 1.5"

ORD 1.2"

ALEK 1.0"

 

Haven't really paid close attention to areas outside of the above, so no used in making any guesses.  Chances are I'll be wrong on many of these, but it's all in good fun.

[gosaints]

Spread is basically gone on the gfs ensembles.

[kab2791]

Surface temps remain below freezing several hours longer on the 12Z Euro compared to the 00Z Euro for the Metro Detroit area, with precip amounts of ~0.40-0.50" (crude estimation from wunderground map) for the city proper, before temps nudge above freezing. Of course, not all of that would accrue, especially as temperatures become more marginal Saturday night; however the northern suburbs look to receive more significant amounts of freezing rain as temperatures hold in the upper 20s (per the Euro).

[harrisale]

850 temps just above zero. It's too bad we can't get soundings off the EURO because I suspect at least some of that could be PL.

 

I agree soundings would be key. Would love to see 925mb temps.

 

If that warm nose really is being underdone on the models then the likelihood of PL might go down.

 

Nailbiter til the bitter end.

[A-L-E-K]

First call for here and the QC was 3-6", but good chance I may bust on that one.  Gonna stick with it for now though.

 

Specific calls...

Here 3.0"

DVN 3.5"

Hawkeye 6.0"

Madison 8.5"

Geos!! 3.5"

MKE crowd 5.5"

Chicago Storm 1.5"

ORD 1.2"

ALEK 1.0"

 

Haven't really paid close attention to areas outside of the above, so no used in making any guesses.  Chances are I'll be wrong on many of these, but it's all in good fun.

 

 

solid

[ryanthunder]

Man it's a fine line between not much and intense snowfall off that model.  This is the 6hr snowfall ending around 11z Sun.  Pure rippage over southeast Iowa.

 

 

...it's not over yet!!! I'm just east of Burlington on the border of that yellow and red stuff...here we go

[toronto blizzard]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            12Z DEC20
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

SAT 18Z 21-DEC   1.1     1.1    1014      82      70    0.01     557     546    
SUN 00Z 22-DEC  -0.5     0.6    1015      93      97    0.16     559     547 
SUN 06Z 22-DEC  -1.8     0.5    1011      93      99    0.60     558     549
SUN 12Z 22-DEC  -3.0     1.1    1009      89      88    0.54     556     549
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  -2.1     5.8    1005      91      19    0.08     551     547

[blizzardof96]

850 temps just above zero. It's too bad we can't get soundings off the EURO because I suspect at least some of that could be PL.

Based on 850-700mb thicknesses, it would suggest that the warmest layer is most likely above 850mb. The 155 line only lifts north of the GTA after the 6z time frame which suggests that their would be some PL with the onset of the event. How much exactly is the question.

[toronto blizzard]

Meh, in-house RPM at the limit of its range... wouldn't put much faith into it.

Agreed

[WestCoaster]

Kingston issued a state of emergency and 70% of its city was without power after 40 mm of ZR (I think they ended up totalling around 60mm) in '98

 

Ottawa saw something similar in '86 which took out 30% of the city's power.

[harrisale]

Based on 850-700mb thicknesses, it would suggest that the warmest layer is most likely above 850mb. The 155 line only lifts north of the GTA after the 6z time frame which suggests that their would be some PL with the onset of the event. How much exactly is the question.

 

Nice post. Very complex forecast, learning a lot from this one system.

[tim123]

Euro text for kroc rochester ny.

[Thundersnow12]

I think Cycloneville is good for at least 5"

[cmichweather]

Everything north and west of DTW is now under a watch.

[Indystorm]

Tulsa NWS has issued an ice storm warning for much of ne OK from this evening until 6 p.m. Sat. for .25 to .40" of ice.  We're going to have to nowcast and see how this trends ne to our subforum region as this progresses.  Will be most interesting to see the models this afternoon and evening.

[BowMeHunter]

I think Cycloneville is good for at least 5"

 

 

Yup..  He is the anti damage in tolland and always low-balls himself..  he's sitting pretty on every model for a good 4-8"

[Indystorm]

70 degrees St. Louis and 21 in Kansas City....now there's a baroclinic zone.

[ryanthunder]

Check this one out.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152049620251760&set=ms.10152049620976760.10152049620251760.10152049619701760.10152049618761760.bps.a.10150114911481760.319343.87625716759&type=1&theater

 

Since it wont upload -.-

[SchaumburgStormer]

I think somewhere between me and Pontiac ends up with a good bit of ice

[ryanthunder]

Then here's another one I found.

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152049620976760&set=ms.10152049620976760.10152049620251760.10152049619701760.10152049618761760.bps.a.10150114911481760.319343.87625716759&type=3&theater

[Geos]

First call for here and the QC was 3-6", but good chance I may bust on that one.  Gonna stick with it for now though.

 

Specific calls...

Here 3.0"

DVN 3.5"

Hawkeye 6.0"

Madison 8.5"

Geos!! 3.5"

MKE crowd 5.5"

Chicago Storm 1.5"

ORD 1.2"

ALEK 1.0"

 

Haven't really paid close attention to areas outside of the above, so no used in making any guesses.  Chances are I'll be wrong on many of these, but it's all in good fun.

 

I'm going with 5.0" here.

 

You: 6.5"

DVN: 6.1"

Hawkeye: 5.5"

Madison: 7.0"

MKE: 8.2"

Chicago Storm: 3.3"

ORD: 3.2"

[Indystorm]

Peoria 36 and just down the road at Lincoln IL 60....wow! That's some warm front.

[Thundersnow12]

I'm going with 5.0" here.

You: 6.5"

DVN: 6.1"

Hawkeye: 5.5"

Madison: 7.0"

MKE: 8.2"

Chicago Storm: 3.3"

ORD: 3.2"

Why the uptick? Lol I like 2.5" here for now.

[Hoar_Frost]

I'm going with 5.0" here.

 

You: 6.5"

DVN: 6.1"

Hawkeye: 5.5"

Madison: 7.0"

MKE: 8.2"

Chicago Storm: 3.3"

ORD: 3.2"

Based on this morning's guidance, these seem like reasonable first guesses.  Maybe a little high for ORD.  

[hm8]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
153 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2013  
   
UPDATE  
 
UPDATED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF AREA SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND ALSO A FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR  
SOUTHEAST CWA...INCLUDING DETROIT.  
 
12Z MODEL RUNS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A HEAVY SWATH OF  
RAIN INTO THE SOUTEHRN LAKES/NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH UPWARDS OF  
2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN DTX CWA. BETWEEN THIS RAIN  
AND SNOW MELT...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED FROM THIS  
STORM.  
 
MODELS ARE A BIT LESS CONSISTENT IN THERMAL PROFILES...BUT THERE  
APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SHOT A SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR A  
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE IRISH HILLS NORTH.  
THIS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG  
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADS PRODUCES AN  
EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE ON  
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY...AS THE DEFORMATION  
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH PARTS OF  
LOWER MICHIGAN.  

[cyclone77]

Yup..  He is the anti damage in tolland and always low-balls himself..  he's sitting pretty on every model for a good 4-8"

 

Eh, my original forecast has 3-6" for here and the QC, I just went on the low end of that for my specific forecast.  The Euro shows thickness staying above 540 through 3am here, which would indicate that pesky warm layer above 850 should hold on through midnight.  To me that screams pingers for most of the evening, with maybe the occasional switch to snow during heavier precip. 

[Geos]

Why the uptick? Lol I like 2.5" here for now.

 

Thinking we could have slightly better phasing like the one system last week. We're doing pretty good in the snowfall department so far this season... why not uptick!

 

If I bust, I bust.

[Luftfeuchtigkeit]

70 degrees St. Louis and 21 in Kansas City....now there's a baroclinic zone.

 

Yeah, amazing.  St. Louis just sent out a record event report.  Previous record high was 68.  New record 70 and counting.

[gosaints]

Yeah, amazing.  St. Louis just sent out a record event report.  Previous record high was 68.  New record 70 and counting.

Amazing

[Indystorm]

Our low to watch is presently forming sw of Phoenix at surface, 850 and 700 levels.