Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Gfs not that different than its previous runs, hopefully a sign of the nam being the nam. Yea...A few changes here and there, but similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah GFS similar to last night's 00z run, with a slightly weaker deformation zone. First stab at amounts for here and the QC is 3-6". Think we're gonna ride the line tomorrow evening with a mix of everything until about midnight. I'm thinking the best snows fall on the Iowa side, where a nice 4-8 band should set up. Hawkeye up to Madison looking golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Get your candles ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Get your candles ready. I bought a gingerbread scented candle for the Christmas season. Might come in useful this last weekend before Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Right in line with the RGEM.The GGEM has been very consistent on its ice storm picture for the GTA amongst all the other models which have shown virtually every situation thats possible. Consensus is growing for a major ice storm this weekend across the region. Surface temps on last night's Euro and today's 12z GFS remain below freezing the entire duration while 850mb temps remain above. I believe we may perhaps have some light SN/PL to begin with, before it quickly transitions over to ZR. People should prepare NOW before they regret it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For ORD: Text from GFS 12z says that 850 temps cool just in time for majority of precip to fall as 3-4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Environment Canada still pretty shy on ice potential: City of Toronto10:27 AM EST Friday 20 December 2013Special weather statement forCity of Toronto continuedA tale of two winter storms.A winter storm from Texas has caused an area of mixed precipitation to spread into Southern Ontario as expected.Over Southwestern Ontario precipitation will be mainly in the form of rain. General rainfall amounts near 10 mm are expected by tonight with up to 25 mm in a few locales.In a band from Southern Lake Huron through the Greater Toronto area and eastward to Kingston, periods of freezing rain are occurring as expected. Please refer to the freezing rain warning which has been posted for those locales. Freezing rain warnings also are in effect in the St. Lawrence Valley.Further north from Northern Lake Huron through Barrie and east of Georgian Bay to the Ottawa Valley, precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow. Total amounts are forecast to average near 10 cm over these regions today. The snow could change to periods of freezing rain in some places later today and tonight.After a break Saturday, another more potent winter storm from the United States will approach Southern Ontario late Saturday. An ice storm will be possible across a large swath of Southern Ontario, with significant rainfall likely near Lake Erie and significant snowfall and ice pellets from Northern Lake Huron to the Ottawa Valley.There is still uncertainty surrounding the exact position of the storm track. Any change in the storm centre's track will affect precipitation amounts and type. However, it is very likely that holiday travel will be significantly impacted.Travellers should be prepared for dangerous winter travelling conditions. Untreated roads and sidewalks may become icy and very slippery especially in areas that receive extended periods of freezing rain. Power outages may also be an issue to deal with. We continue to recommend watching future forecasts and taking the necessary precautions.Environment Canada will continue to monitor this evolving situation and will issue further warnings as necessary.Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well, I held out as long as I could, hoping against hope it would change, and at least put some snow down. Even if snow falls it's going to be cement, with all of the rain, it's going to be just what I called it at first: A sloppy mess. Punting. See ya on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 MKX said 6-12 hours in the DGZ...heavy snow quote name="Geos" post="2564935" timestamp="1387552250"]Haha. MKX included heavy snow wording for tomorrow night. They must be fairly confident now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The GGEM has been very consistent on its ice storm picture for the GTA amongst all the other models which have shown virtually every situation thats possible. Consensus is growing for a major ice storm this weekend across the region. Surface temps on last night's Euro and today's 12z GFS remain below freezing the entire duration while 850mb temps remain above. I believe we may perhaps have some light SN/PL to begin with, before it quickly transitions over to ZR. People should prepare NOW before they regret it later. Harold Hosein of 680 News is calling for plain rain on Saturday evening as temperatures rise to +3 Celsius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well, shoot. Looks like I'm out of this one, folks. Why can't west central Illinois just get one decent snowstorm? With the two recent runs, I'm expecting an icy, slushy, wet Christmas. *kicks a bucket* Stupid Henderson County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Harold Hosein of 680 News is calling for plain rain on Saturday evening as temperatures rise to +3 Celsius. Lol yesterday he was calling for 9-12'' of snow now he's calling for plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Impressive baroclinic zone taking shape. Low 60s in southern IL to mid 20s in the northwest. Also subzero temps over the Dakotas. Dews over the lower MS valley have really jumped up the past 24hrs. Seeing 60+ dews well north into much of Arkansas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 For zip code 61471: A WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT ANDSUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...BLOWING SNOW... ANDSOME FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONSOVER THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO8 INCHES IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...TO LESSTHAN 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS ANDNORTHEAST MISSOURI. THESE LOCATIONS WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF SNOWWILL ALSO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.IAZ099-ILZ018-025-026-034-035-MOZ010-202300-/O.CON.KDVN.WS.A.0009.131222T0000Z-131223T0000Z/LEE-PUTNAM-HENDERSON-WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-CLARK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT MADISON...HENNEPIN...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...KAHOKA900 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENINGTHROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...* TIMING...A MIX OF SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY EVENING...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES WITH UP TO 1 INCH OF SLEET POSSIBLE.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A QUARTER INCH DUE TO FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ^^^Come on! This is crap -.- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12Z RGEM ice for Southern ON. Believable solution with the EURO supporting it. 40-50mm IMBY Looks rough for Michigan as well. Ice storm warnings have been issued by BUF at the eastern edge of their CWA, mentioning an inch of ice possible. Hopefully Environment Canada will fall in line and get something out in the 3:30 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Interesting temperature and precip type scenarios for Buffalo Metro in this storm. Buffalo NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northern Erie and Niagara. looking at the temps its not out of the possibility for North Buffalo to get an Ice Storm and temperatures in the low 30s and the south towns gets rain and temperatures approaching 50. Thats a nightmare to forecast since between those two locations its only 40 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12Z RGEM ice for Southern ON. Believable solution with the EURO supporting it. 40-50mm IMBY Looks rough for Michigan as well. UGH I'm going to be so cold without power. #firstworldproblems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12Z RGEM ice for Southern ON. Believable solution with the EURO supporting it. 40-50mm IMBY That would be interesting. I have just plain rain falling currently. Do you live along the lake in Oakville as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Interesting temperature and precip type scenarios for Buffalo Metro in this storm. Buffalo NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Northern Erie and Niagara. looking at the temps its not out of the possibility for North Buffalo to get an Ice Storm and temperatures in the low 30s and the south towns gets rain and temperatures approaching 50. Thats a nightmare to forecast since between those two locations its only 40 miles AFAIA east winds off the Adironacks are a warming wind for WNY south of the escarpment. North of it, the escarpment acts as the same cold air dam as it does for us but with the winds right off Lk Ontario there may be another pocket of warmth right along the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 UGH I'm going to be so cold without power. #firstworldproblems At least we get the benefit of that screwhole...only 30-40mm of ice Too bad the GEM couldn't stick with its PL scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That would be interesting. I have just plain rain falling currently. Do you live along the lake in Oakville as well? I live in north Oakville along Dundas. Keeps a bit of the lake influence out. EDIT: Should mention above graphic is contaminated by today's ZR but I compared them and the difference is marginal. Most of the ZR on the map is a result of tomorrow night's system. EDIT2: Sorry if I appear to be weenie-ing out on this storm. Freezing rain is pretty exhilarating for me, really gets the adrenaline rushing. What a fascinating meteorological phenomena. I suppose its entirely possible the low end solutions could still pan out. Trying to keep myself in check! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Whoa, this thread died in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Whoa, this thread died in a hurry. Likely because of the plain rain currently falling, or people getting ready for Christmas., or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'd like to believe every GFS ensemble run is right in keeping Milwaukee all snow, with the 850s staying just below freezing on every one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 yep. fighting time to follow this storm and still get Christmas done - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 . MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1155 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2013VALID DEC 20/1200 UTC THRU DEC 24/0000 UTC==================================================12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES==================================================NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TOSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.==================================================...CYCLONE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWFTHIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT A VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER AS LOWPRESSURE DEEPENS OVER TX/AR AND MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ANDNEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION HAD BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW ANDSUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE 12Z RUN TRENDEDTOWARD THE PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET ISREMOVED FROM OUR PREFERENCE ONLY BECAUSE ON DAY 3 IT HANGS UP THETRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS RATHERTHAN SPILLING IT OVER TOWARD THE COAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THECAROLINAS. THE GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A CONTINUEDEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS THE LONGWAVE REMAINS PROGRESSIVE.THROUGH MUCH OF DAY 1 THE NAM CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE PREFERREDSOLUTIONS. IT DOES BECOME SLIGHTLY FAST AT THE SURFACE BY22/00Z...AND BUILDS SHORTWAVE RIDGING A LITTLE FARTHERNORTH...CAUSING THE WARM FRONT TO FORM NORTH OF THE MODELCONSENSUS IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. THEREAFTER THENAM IS ON THE NORTH SIDE AND SLIGHTLY FAST SIDE OF THEGUIDANCE...TWO ASPECTS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH BIASES IN THATMODEL. ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE USEFUL IN SPOTS...THE GLOBAL MODELSARE PREFERRED WHEREVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES....NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWESTSUN AND MON...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET...SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GEFSMEANIN THE NORTHERN STREAM THE GFS AND UKMET ARE BEST SYNCED WITH THEENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH HAVE THEMSELVES BEEN STEADY OVER THE PASTFEW RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARED TOO FAST WITH THE PACIFIC SYSTEMDISCUSSED IN THE NEXT SECTION...WHICH...IN TURN...KICKS THENORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.THIS RESULTS IN A FLAT/PROGRESSIVE APPEARANCE RELATIVE TO THEGFS/UKMET. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ONE OF THE DEEPEST ANDCOLDEST SOLUTIONS IN THE NORTHERN U.S...AND IT HAS LITTLE SUPPORT.THE GEFS MEAN IS REASONABLE AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THEGFS/UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It will be interesting to see what the new Euro model depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Gilbert, how are we doing on the sampling of the northern stream energy? Assuming it should be pretty well sampled by now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Gilbert, how are we doing on the sampling of the northern stream energy? Assuming it should be pretty well sampled by now? yeah...Canadian coasts should have gotten a good sampling on it this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Whoa, this thread died in a hurry. yeah...looking like a pretty boring event around here. Best rains south, advisory snows well north. Kind of a dull no man's land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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