snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I don't think the GTA will see much PL/SN from this event at all. Whether precip falls as RN or ZR is going to depend on sfc temps IMO as its going to be very close. The 850-700mb level definitely looks warm enough to melt the SN completely with thicknesses above 155 for majority of the event besides a few hours at the onset where soundings favour more of a PL situation, especially north of the 401. Depending on the rest of the 12z suite, might have to go with a compromise. A scenario which unfortunately might maximize icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Didn't the most recent EURO move a bit se? Model wars continue with this thing although logic would dictate more nw if it does dig deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Is the NAM calling for mainly rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 . If model amounts verify, many parts of the GTA are going to be looking at major power outages. Umm..... my 35 yrs. of closely watching GTA weather tells me that typically we won't get ice storm in downtown T.O as per usual, due to lakes moderating influence. When 1,0, -1 is forecast, models don't take geographical influence (proximity to big Lake Ontario) into account.. We will get mist, drizzle, freezing drizzle, a little light snow, light rain, bit of accumulating ice pellets and probably have to scrape a bit of glaze/ PL stuck to car window Sun. morning before it mostly melts Sun. aft. North and east of GTA will have some problems as usual. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Umm..... my 35 yrs. of closely watching GTA weather tells me that typically we won't get ice storm in downtown T.O as per usual, due to lakes moderating influence. When 1,0, -1 is forecast, models don't take geographical influence (proximity to big Lake Ontario) into account.. We will get mist, drizzle, freezing drizzle, a little light snow, light rain, bit of accumulating ice pellets and probably have to scrape a bit of glaze/ PL stuck to car window Sun. morning before it mostly melts Sun. aft. North and east of GTA will have some problems as usual. lol Downtown TO is just a small part of the GTA. Sure, it will be warmer and less intense downtown but it makes little sense to ignore what is going on along and north of the 401, including the SW burbs where impacts could be very significant if model forecasts hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Umm..... my 35 yrs. of closely watching GTA weather tells me that typically we won't get ice storm in downtown T.O as per usual, due to lakes moderating influence. When 1,0, -1 is forecast, models don't take geographical influence (proximity to big Lake Ontario) into account.. We will get mist, drizzle, freezing drizzle, a little light snow, light rain, bit of accumulating ice pellets and probably have to scrape a bit of glaze/ PL stuck to car window Sun. morning before it mostly melts Sun. aft. North and east of GTA will have some problems as usual. lol Normally the downtown core doesn't get big ice storms, but there was one back on January 14, 1968 in which an inch of ice fell. Temperatures hovered around -2 or -1C. The 00z ECMWF text output from last night actually has 2m temperatures falling during the day tomorrow into tomorrow night into Sunday morning before rebounding to above freezing late in the day Sunday. Temps fall to -3 or -4C by Sunday morning. Hopefully the ECMWF solution is not correct, but I'm concerned that it might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 FWIW, I think areas along I-94 will get up to a quarter inch of ice, before all melting when surface temps creep up to 35, then bam. Bam entails the storm is over btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Dtx THE UPPER LOW NOW ADVANCING INTO THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY PHASING WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY NOW ADVANCING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS WAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT RAPIDLY LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE A DEEP FRONTAL ZONAL IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH AN INTENSIFICATION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK OVER QUEBEC /TO AN IMPRESSIVE 230 KTS BY 06Z SUN/ WILL INVOKE A HEALTHY FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY SUPPORT A GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THIS FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS OUT OF TEXAS AND DRAWS GULF MOISTURE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL IN TURN ADVECT COLDER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE INTO SE MI. THIS COUPLED WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL ICE STORM OVER PORTIONS OF SE MI SAT NIGHT. DESPITE THE OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE LIFTING UP FROM TX AND THE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH BECOMES MORE ACTIVE WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS NOT ONLY TO PRECIP TYPE ACROSS SE MI BUT ALSO QPF AMOUNTS. THE NAM SOLUTION DAMPENS THE WAVE MORE QUICKLY AND IS WEAKER WITH THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH AND IS THEREFORE MUCH WARMER OVER SE MI. IN LIGHT OF THE DYNAMICS...PREFERENCE LIES TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE COLDER. CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE THE MORE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS COULD KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIP SOUTH OF MI. THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN MAINTAIN A DEEPER UPPER WAVE AND THUS LIFT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH...SUGGESTIVE OF HEAVIER PRECIP INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA /OVER AN INCH QPF/. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THE INTENSE FGEN MAY TIGHTEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN SHOWN IN CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS AND SUGGESTS A SHARP TRANSITION IN PRECIP TYPE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND END EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS STAGE IN THE FORECAST... PRECIP TYPE FROM DETROIT/ANN ARBOR SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN AS FREEZING RAIN AND TRANSITION TO RAIN. FROM THE NRN DETROIT SUBURBS TO THE I-69 CORRIDOR PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY SNOW WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN SUN NIGHT. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE NORTH OF M-59. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME ICE ACCUMULATION /ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SAGINAW/. THE UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AND THE THERMAL PROFILE SUGGEST WAITING AT LEAST ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT HEADLINES NEED TO BE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 It is actually NW of the PVA at 500mb. NAM is rewriting meteorology with that run. Haha. MKX included heavy snow wording for tomorrow night. They must be fairly confident now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Just looking temp SREF plumes for DTW members are slowly trending warmer, so probably more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Just looking temp SREF plumes for DTW members are slowly trending warmer, so probably more amped. Sref's love green bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Did we get Alek's official punt call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS comes west this run...Given more and more ensembles have been farther west the past two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if the GFS comes west this run...Given more and more ensembles have been farther west the past two runs. I'm thinking a tad west, but not much. The NAM has been all over, yesterday's 0z run it was the furthest south and east with the deformation zone, and now this 12z run it is the furthest run of all recent model runs with that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12z RGEM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow at the 12z RGEM in and around the GTA. 30-40mm in the downtown core with 40-50mm once you get north of highway 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow at the 12z RGEM in and around the GTA, especially along and north of the 401. post-23784-1387552878_thumb.png The Canadian has really held steady on the ZR threat for quite some time. Probably the most consistent of the models in this respect. I'll be heading up to cottage country tonight until Monday, I have a feeling I'll be returning to a home without power. Sadly I'll miss any good ice accretion, so if some of the Toronto posters could get some pics, it would be much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow. Looks like Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12Z RGEM shuts down Toronto. Thankfully it's marginal but what an awful, awful run. I hope it shifts slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The Canadian has really held steady on the ZR threat for quite some time. Probably the most consistent of the models in this respect. I'll be heading up to cottage country tonight until Monday, I have a feeling I'll be returning to a home without power. Sadly I'll miss any good ice accretion, so if some of the Toronto posters could get some pics, it would be much appreciated I'll be out of town too, if my flight can get out tomorrow morning en route to Az. Missed the boxing day storm and july flood as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Did we get Alek's official punt call? Yes. Came in about 6:30 am today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 wouldn't be a December without a weasel Madison special.. to add insult the snow will prob b winding down around kickoff of the pack game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z DEC20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 21-DEC -0.7 1.8 1012 92 63 0.02 555 546 SAT 18Z 21-DEC -1.5 0.4 1015 88 86 0.09 557 546 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.6 0.0 1016 91 96 0.15 559 546 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -3.0 1.1 1011 92 100 0.61 558 549 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -3.6 3.1 1007 87 85 0.69 556 550 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -2.2 4.4 1005 90 23 0.06 550 547 MON 00Z 23-DEC 4.0 -1.4 1006 87 53 0.02 550 545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Going to officially go with 5.2" sat night until Sunday 7 pm. System only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 00Z DEC20 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 21-DEC -0.7 1.8 1012 92 63 0.02 555 546 SAT 18Z 21-DEC -1.5 0.4 1015 88 86 0.09 557 546 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.6 0.0 1016 91 96 0.15 559 546 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -3.0 1.1 1011 92 100 0.61 558 549 SUN 12Z 22-DEC -3.6 3.1 1007 87 85 0.69 556 550 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -2.2 4.4 1005 90 23 0.06 550 547 MON 00Z 23-DEC 4.0 -1.4 1006 87 53 0.02 550 545 Well... that took a turn for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 If anyone happens to glance at BTL Text, let me know if it looks anything like YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Gfs not that different than its previous runs, hopefully a sign of the nam being the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well... that took a turn for the worst. Right in line with the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Wow at the 12z RGEM in and around the GTA. 30-40mm in the downtown core with 40-50mm once you get north of highway 7. post-23784-1387552878_thumb.png Wow. I believe Ottawa saw slightly less than that during the first day of the 1998 ice storm, and lost power... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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