MadTown Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 NAM looks warm.north Agreed. Not caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 12Z NAM says, "Hey, Rockford to Port Huron points south... Yeah you're going to have a cold rain." But that's without looking at the surface. Also looks west. Digs deeper into Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 meh looks like it will hold its track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I'm liking the trends and where I sit as of now but know enough to never get too comfortable or cocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I noticed the 6z RGEM also came in more amped than the 0z run. I'm wondering if the model mayhem has yet to cease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I noticed the 6z RGEM also came in more amped than the 0z run. I'm wondering if the model mayhem has yet to cease. That strong SE ridge ... just nothing stong enough over Quebec to block this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottumwawx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well over here in SE Iowa were looking at the best shot at a good storm in 3 years. 6" plus storms are a rarity recently. While we look to be in the sweetspot, potential is there for thunderstorms south and east to starve the deformation zone area of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 lol NAM But man, that's a crapload of rain just to the south of here...not that we aren't getting our fair share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Not nearly as worried as I was a couple days ago re: ZR potential. I think there will be some headaches in some areas and some localized outages but I'm not seeing enough ZR at this point to be too devastating. After that northern plume was tested the models have shifted to a more southerly track. I'm calling for a mostly PL event with some ZR and SN change. Messy, but not devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 That strong SE ridge ... just nothing stong enough over Quebec to block this thing. I never really liked the placement of the blocking vortex over northern Quebec. It seems too far north to me to really send this storm through the grinder like the GEM and UKIE are showing. But I can't wrap my head around the NAM scoring a coup against all the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Not nearly as worried as I was a couple days ago re: ZR potential. I think there will be some headaches in some areas and some localized outages but I'm not seeing enough ZR at this point to be too devastating. After that northern plume was tested the models have shifted to a more southerly track. I'm calling for a mostly PL event with some ZR and SN change. Messy, but not devastating. Yeah, this sucker is cooking through the area. Won't have enough time to wreak havoc. But still, .25"+ of ice is enough to cause some serious headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Not nearly as worried as I was a couple days ago re: ZR potential. I think there will be some headaches in some areas and some localized outages but I'm not seeing enough ZR at this point to be too devastating. After that northern plume was tested the models have shifted to a more southerly track. I'm calling for a mostly PL event with some ZR and SN change. Messy, but not devastating. I was leaning that way 12 hours ago. Now I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I noticed the 6z RGEM also came in more amped than the 0z run. I'm wondering if the model mayhem has yet to cease. Man, this storm is going to change all the way up to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Agreed. Not caving. not caving and doubling down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 As we're not going to get a snowstorm out of this, I'm perfectly fine with this torchy and convoluted POS tracking from STL to ORD to MBS so we can also avoid the ice and 33*F/34*F rain. And the snowpack is already disappearing, slowly but steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I never really liked the placement of the blocking vortex over northern Quebec. It seems too far north to me to really send this storm through the grinder like the GEM and UKIE are showing. But I can't wrap my head around the NAM scoring a coup against all the other globals. Blind squirrels still find nuts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 not caving and doubling down. over ORD. lol. (edit: or pretty close anyway). I'm going to put that in the maybe pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 over ORD. lol. I'm going to put that in the maybe pile. i've been in the NW camp all along...we saw some tease east shift but it's going to wind up big and cut like a knife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've had too many bad NAMories to take it too seriously. However, with event so borderline, you never know who might pull off a victor. Have any models had more than 3 runs in a row of stellar consistency at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Anyone got a precip map off the new nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 More amped up wintry side. NAM being the NAM, maybe...maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 More amped up wintry side. NAM being the NAM, maybe...maybe not. since the trend to not shear the vort out has been consistent, i think it makes sense to see some hard left shifts over the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 As we're not going to get a snowstorm out of this, I'm perfectly fine with this POS tracking from STL to ORD to MBS so we can also avoid the ice and 33*F/34*F rain. And the snowpack is already dissapearing, slowly but steadily. To be honest but I would much prefer a strong storm like you are saying. If we can get some decent westward winds on the back sided of this we maybe able to get some quick Lake MI LES on the 24th to make is look like Christmas! I just want it to be all snow around BO because that area is my snow vacation spot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Anyone got a precip map off the new nam Buyer beware. since the trend to not shear the vort out has been consistent, i think it makes sense to see some hard left shifts over the next few runs. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 i've been in the NW camp all along...we saw some tease east shift but it's going to wind up big and cut like a knife I dunno. As much as I don't like the positioning of the upstream blocking, something seems a little fishy about the NAM sfc low placement. It's virtually right atop the string of PVA at 500mb. To make better synoptic sense, shouldn't it be displaced somewhat to the SE? This isn't a fully phased, closed ul low, when you'd eventually see stacking going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 over ORD. lol. (edit: or pretty close anyway). I'm going to put that in the maybe pile. Almost identical to 6Z GEM location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I dunno. As much as I don't like the positioning of the upstream blocking, something seems a little fishy about the NAM sfc low placement. It's virtually right atop the string of PVA at 500mb. To make better synoptic sense, shouldn't it be displaced somewhat to the SE? This isn't a fully phased, closed ul low, when you'd eventually see stacking going on. It is actually NW of the PVA at 500mb. NAM is rewriting meteorology with that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I was leaning that way 12 hours ago. Now I don't know. I don't think the GTA will see much PL/SN from this event at all. Whether precip falls as RN or ZR is going to depend on sfc temps IMO as its going to be very close. The 850-700mb level definitely looks warm enough to melt the SN completely with thicknesses above 155 for majority of the event besides a few hours at the onset where soundings favour more of a PL situation, especially north of the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I've had too many bad NAMories to take it too seriously. However, with event so borderline, you never know who might pull off a victor. Have any models had more than 3 runs in a row of stellar consistency at this point? 3 days ago, the EURO. Then it crapped itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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