cmichweather Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Less precip might actually help ice accretion prospects in this case since temps aren't way below freezing. Yeah slow drizzle with marginal temperatures can be very efficient at using most of the precip to ice things over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well the GFS is a beaut...but I think I'd still be riding 4-8" here locally...can always walk the amounts up/down as we get closer, its a good range for now. Skilling talking about expanding the watches in to metro Chicago would be totally shocking, but mainly for the icing potential around the city away from the lake especially. It certainly wouldn't be a watch for snowfall accumulation in the city proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 the snow map for this GFS run seems strange to me. the heavy snow swath orients very NE whereas the low track is more ENE. so makes me wonder if the model is struggling with cold air wrapping around. the one thing I did notice, esp with the last snowstorm last week, is that models struggle with taking dynamic cooling into account. this system has some intense UVV, esp in the def band. so a changeover could happen sooner and therefore higher totals to the south where it only shows 1-2in now. Im sitting just west of the IL river in Chillicothe. im going to be close the freezing line if models don't shift more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 wouldn't not would, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Local TV station KWQC based out of the QCA just showed their future cast thingy. Looks to be a mainly snow event here, so I'm going 7 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Bo, would get his storm still. And would not have to resort to watching lake effect snow videos. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Local TV station KWQC based out of the QCA just showed their future cast thingy. Looks to be a mainly snow event here, so I'm going 7 inches here. Should probably mention I'm between Monmouth, Macomb, and Burlington for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 All things considered, I think the models have done a pretty decent job given a 100+ mile margin of error in the past 36 hours. Not sure we can expect much more. Certainly, with this crowd, 100 miles can make all the difference but they've done a pretty decent job IMO. I'm going with a 6-8" call IMBY at this point. I have the luxury of being in the "midwest snow jackpot" over the past few years but I'm not complaining... Good luck everyone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 This will help tomorrow....not to mention actually having the northern stream sampled.... NOUS42 KWNO 200344ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0343Z FRI DEC 20 201300Z GFS IS ON SCHEDULE..CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUSA REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT1200Z SAT DEC 21 2013 AND EXTEND THROUGH 2359Z SUN DEC 222013 DUE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE OHIOVALLEY..THE FOLLOWING NWS REGIONS ARE IMPACTED BY THISCWD...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL. NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSOPARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OFWEATHER DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 00z UK nearly identical to the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Bo, would get his storm still. And would not have to resort to watching lake effect snow videos. haha Bo will get more from the wrap around LES than the system.... Just less water content. As I have been saying.... Cadillac, MI is the jackpot zone. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The latest RGEM shows me starting off with a couple of hours of moderate snow before going over to heavy ice pellets. This is positive. It beats freezing rain. Now, let's see if Roger Smith can score the coup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah with my clients I think I'm going to solidify a call of 6-9" in the metro QC, Rockford to Burlington in the 4-7" range, Chicago back down towards Peoria in the 1-3" zone...from Prairie Du Chien back thru Waterloo and Des Moines generally 3-6" roughly.... I think this is looking like a better and better guess at this point and that's what it is a guess still since that Northern vort is still up there yet to be fully examined by the balloons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 00z UK nearly identical to the 12z GFS may stand alone with its aggressive shearing off of the WCB moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Bo will get more from the wrap around LES than the system.... Just less water content. As I have been saying.... Cadillac, MI is the jackpot zone. Sent from my HTC6435LVW Clare,MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Latest GGEM alot cooler for the GTA. Precip falls as freezing rain/ice pellets. Starts off as heavy snow for areas north of 401. Interesting. Out of all the models, the GGEM has been fairly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 The latest RGEM shows me starting off with a couple of hours of moderate snow before going over to heavy ice pellets. This is positive. It beats freezing rain. Now, let's see if Roger Smith can score the coup... Yeah, GGEM is basically April 2003 v2.0. Pingers galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Latest GGEM alot cooler for the GTA. Precip falls as freezing rain/ice pellets. Starts off as heavy snow for areas north of 401. Interesting. Chris Scott of TWN has tweeted saying he thinks the 0z GFS has dropped the ball on ice. Perhaps it's a bogus run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Yeah, GGEM is basically April 2003 v2.0. Pingers galore. Well, it would mean we have a white Christmas if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GGEM really dumps just inland from Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 is this thing coming out as one low pressure, or is a second one that's prompting the WSW's, riding up the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Well, it would mean we have a white Christmas if it verifies. Even if the NAM verifies we'd have a white Christmas. Assuming 1-1.5" of QPF, at 3-4:1 ratios that's 3-5" of PL. Obviously not as good as snow but you might be able to actually improve on your snowdepth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Even if the NAM verifies we'd have a white Christmas. Assuming 1-1.5" of QPF, at 3-4:1 ratios that's 3-5" of PL. Obviously not as good as snow but you might be able to actually improve on your snowdepth. Man, during your three hour flight tomorrow you're going to be wishing you could check this board for updates at the rate this thing is developing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Overall the last several runs from most guidance has looked pretty decent for eastern Iowa and northern IL. My overall confidence in all guidance is lower than normal at this range, so I really ain't thinking too much about amounts for any given area yet. Definitely looks like a nice swath of 4-8" wherever the main band sets up. Think we'll be in store for some additional shifts tomorrow morning, and even tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Even if the NAM verifies we'd have a white Christmas. Assuming 1-1.5" of QPF, at 3-4:1 ratios that's 3-5" of PL. Obviously not as good as snow but you might be able to actually improve on your snowdepth. Is that the thinking now? Hope not. April 3rd-4th, 2003 was greatest shoveling nightmare. The weight of 8 inches ice pellets was most physically taxing. This system is still full of uncertainty for main precip. that will accumulate in T.O. .No pingers.....please.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Is that the thinking now? Hope not. April 3rd-4th, 2003 was greatest shoveling nightmare. The weight of 8 inches ice pellets was most physically taxing. This system is still full of uncertainty for main precip. that will accumulate in T.O. .No pingers.....please.! Remember it well. Got a snow (well sleet I guess) day because the tires on my mom's car were encased in pellets. Could not get out of the driveway. Not a certainty by any stretch this time. Just one of the scenarios on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Anyone have a synopsis to give on the 12z Euro Ensembles compared to the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Still holding out, waiting until tomorrow night to make my "final call" as it were. or ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 GGEM . GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 Those maps are a little misleading, because most of the freezing rain on the northern edge is from tonight and tomorrow...regardless, ithe heaviest is south of this area anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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