ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 looks like its over for chicagoland as GFS goes northwest also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:08 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Do you expect power outages in north Toronto, Markham and Richmond hill? I'm no electrician but its quite possible. I remember during the 2009 Tornado outbreak in the GTA I lost power for 5 hours but on the other hand I was spared from the worst (Tornado), Already seeing freezing rain in my area and the ground is slippery everywhere. Hbu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:11 AM, Snowstorms said: I'm no electrician but its quite possible. I remember during the 2009 Tornado outbreak in the GTA I lost power for 5 hours but on the other hand I was spared from the worst (Tornado), Already seeing freezing rain in my area and the ground is slippery everywhere. Hbu? The sidewalks are a sheet of ice in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:00 AM, Chitown Storm said: winter storm Gemini? Wow. Now I remember why I don't watch that channel.....ever. Shame. Circa 1985 they were it. NBC buyout doom. Anchorman 2 covers the stupidity of our current news and weather cycle spot on. Apologies for the OT commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:10 AM, ILSNOW said: looks like its over for chicagoland as GFS goes northwest also. Yeah it's over for us. Pretty disappointing considering the outlook a few days ago, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:10 AM, ILSNOW said: looks like its over for chicagoland as GFS goes northwest also. Not that much. Heaviest axis from Ottumwa, IA to Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:30 AM, Geos said: Not that much. Heaviest axis from Ottumwa, IA to Milwaukee. here in lake county will be lucky to get 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Good luck to everyone with this storm. We are in the process of our 3 inches of rain and 4 straight days of 40 Degrees+. The 2 foot+ snowpack will be gone by sunday evening. But I am not really to mad, as this will help immensely in unfreezing whatever ice began to build up on lake erie. We should be good for another month+ of lake effect possibilities! Hopefully some people in this forum can cash in on some snow, and good luck to those who are going to see ice. ( I don't want any ice here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 DTW now down to 33 meanwhile 53 in TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Didn't check the precip reports down south. But man that area of precip seems to be moving rapidly northeastward out of TX and OK. Moving faster than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:34 AM, ILSNOW said: here in lake county will be lucky to get 1-2 inches. If rooting on a GFS/EURO blend. I don't trust the NAM. Almost time to stop watching the models. Temperatures that are feeding into the area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:42 AM, Geos said: here in lake county will be lucky to get 1-2 inches. If rooting on a GFS/EURO blend. I don't trust the NAM. Almost time to stop watching the models. Temperatures that are feeding into the area now. I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Been stuck at 33 for 7 straight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:45 AM, RCNYILWX said: I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing. was just starting to think the same thing, have freezing drizzle and fog now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 It doesn't seem anything if falling out there right now. It is 30.9° at UGN RAC now. 31.8° here. Yeah if it gets below like 28° tonight, then the icing potential really goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 kinda have to wonder with the atmosphere in major flux in about two to three weeks if we do this all over again too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Down to 32 here and still falling. P&C has me at 32 tomorrow and 31 tomorrow night. Wonder if the guys in the LOT office are also thinking the forecasted temps might be too high. RCNYILWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:53 AM, Justin said: kinda have to wonder with the atmosphere in major flux in about two to three weeks if we do this all over again too.... I hope so! Tracking this thing was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:01 AM, Snowstorms said: 0Z GFS/GGEM look crucifying for the GTA. Seems like they both paint the same picture as did the 0z Nam. Looks like rain to start along the Lake shore before it quickly transitions over to ZR and no sign of any PL. This would be treacherous. I recommend to my fellow GTA posters, to stay safe and keep all the emergency kits handy. A light coating of ZR has already presented itself in downtown T.O this evening. This very icy initial presentation is a foreboding of possible rare historic weather event here in T.O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:53 AM, Justin said: kinda have to wonder with the atmosphere in major flux in about two to three weeks if we do this all over again too.... do tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:47 AM, hm8 said: Been stuck at 33 for 7 straight hours It's been that kind of a day, boring on the temperature scale nearly everywhere in the Lakes. The pattern just got indigestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 00Z run from my model shows reasonable amounts of ZR (at least compared to the craptastic NAM - this model used the 18Z NAM for BC's). I would eventually like to use GFS BC's, but thats another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 5:05 AM, MidwestChaser said: do tell.. may be a warm up coming around the beginning of the second week of January before another shot of arctic air comes down again... could see another energetic SW low coming on out again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:45 AM, RCNYILWX said: I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing. Such a borderline setup for much of the LOT cwa. I was looking at forecast soundings and surface wetbulbs are literally within a few tenths of 0C either way in a good chunk of the cwa for much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 4:54 AM, Chitown Storm said: Down to 32 here and still falling. P&C has me at 32 tomorrow and 31 tomorrow night. Wonder if the guys in the LOT office are also thinking the forecasted temps might be too high. RCNYILWX? Well, there's not that much wiggle room because it's not rapid CAA. But 1-2 degrees will mean the difference between bad icing and only isolated problems. Also wondering how much sleet we're gonna see, the warm layer is not that warm so there could be enough of a subfreezing layer to refreeze before the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 5:24 AM, Hoosier said: I'm getting more concerned for the icing threat outside of downtown Chicago. If temperatures cool more than expected tonight, might be tough to get them back above freezing. Such a borderline setup for much of the LOT cwa. I was looking at forecast soundings and surface wetbulbs are literally within a few tenths of 0C either way in a good chunk of the cwa for much of the event. Very tough forecast for the midnight crew. Decent confidence that the Chicago heat island would see less of an issue even if the rest of the metro has a big icing problem. Curious to see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 5:29 AM, RCNYILWX said: Well, there's not that much wiggle room because it's not rapid CAA. But 1-2 degrees will mean the difference between bad icing and only isolated problems. Also wondering how much sleet we're gonna see, the warm layer is not that warm so there could be enough of a subfreezing layer to refreeze before the surface. What are your thoughts about Milwaukee? Are we likely to stay all snow, at least once you get 5 miles inland? I saw the NAM, while 850 and 2m temps were likely below throughout, really lingered some of the upper level warmth, or so it looked on Earl Barker's maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 5:10 AM, L.B. LaForce said: 00Z run from my model shows reasonable amounts of ZR (at least compared to the craptastic NAM - this model used the 18Z NAM for BC's). I would eventually like to use GFS BC's, but thats another story. Cool... You put output for that online anywhere or just run and view it on your own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 5:32 AM, wisconsinwx said: Well, there's not that much wiggle room because it's not rapid CAA. But 1-2 degrees will mean the difference between bad icing and only isolated problems. Also wondering how much sleet we're gonna see, the warm layer is not that warm so there could be enough of a subfreezing layer to refreeze before the surface. What are your thoughts about Milwaukee? Are we likely to stay all snow, at least once you get 5 miles inland? I saw the NAM, while 850 and 2m temps were likely below throughout, really lingered some of the upper level warmth, or so it looked on Earl Barker's maps. Didn't look too closely at MKE but you should be okay up there. Would think there would be enough wet bulbing to keep the column AOB from freezing and favor mainly snow. Will have to watch where exactly the dry slot wraps in and if it makes it all the way up there, would result in a lull overnight tomorrow night before the deformation band comes across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 On 12/21/2013 at 5:35 AM, hm8 said: Cool... You put output for that online anywhere or just run and view it on your own I usually have it up on my site, there are links from the main page on the right. I put this run on there: http://lblaforce.com/wxchallenge but snow and ice are not on there yet, I was just experimenting for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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