Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Part III. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We've undone some of the damage done with yesterday's 12z runs will 0z build on the momentum or trend right back? Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Must be a secret Bastardi formula added into these weatherbell maps. They seem to have down syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We've undone some of the damage done at with yesterday's 12z runs will 0z build on the momentum or trend right back? Stay tuned! These are the Snowstorms of our Lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 FWIW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 john dee has a dgex like NW bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 These are the Snowstorms of our Lives yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Adding the ice from wave 1 to the ice from wave 2 and the EURO checks in with about 2" of ice for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 john dee has a dgex like NW bias He's always way NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 FWIW lol I'd take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Adding the ice from wave 1 to the ice from wave 2 and the EURO checks in with about 2" of ice for Toronto. Over/Under a Winter Storm Watch is issued with the 330pm package from Environment Canada? I know the event would still be 48 hours away but with the waves starting tonight and only brief breaks after it starts before the main storm I wonder if they want to highlight the potential even more. If its not issued this afternoon I would have to think they issue it tomorrow for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Over/Under a Winter Storm Watch is issued with the 330pm package from Environment Canada? I know the event would still be 48 hours away but with the waves starting tonight and only brief breaks after it starts before the main storm I wonder if they want to highlight the potential even more. If its not issued this afternoon I would have to think they issue it tomorrow for sure. Highly doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Over/Under a Winter Storm Watch is issued with the 330pm package from Environment Canada? I know the event would still be 48 hours away but with the waves starting tonight and only brief breaks after it starts before the main storm I wonder if they want to highlight the potential even more. If its not issued this afternoon I would have to think they issue it tomorrow for sure. Watch should definitely come out by tomorrow morning if I was Environment Canada. Need to get the word out before the weekend and people start relaxing, engaging in family events, travelling etc. EURO also managed to get us above freezing per the text data TorBliz posted but the damage is likely done by then. Unless a good deal of that QPF goes towards PL we're in a bit of trouble. Wondering about the warm up. Looks like at least half of the precip falls above 0C at the surface. Hard to tell from text data how climbing temps may affect ZR accretion during the previous 6hr peiod, need some inter-hour data. I don't have much experiencing forecasting ice (as intriguing as I find it)... so many factors in play. From what I'm seeing though if you blend the EURO (wetter, milder, more RA), GFS and GEM (drier but colder temps, more PL)... somewhere in the middle we've got big ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Watch should definitely come out by tomorrow morning if I was Environment Canada. Need to get the word out before the weekend and people start relaxing, engaging in family events, travelling etc. Wondering about the warm up. Looks like at least half of the precip falls above 0C at the surface. Hard to tell from text data how climbing temps may affect ZR accretion during the previous 6hr peiod, need some inter-hour data. I don't have much experiencing forecasting ice (as intriguing as I find it)... so many factors in play. From what I'm seeing though if you blend the EURO (wetter, milder, more RA), GFS and GEM (drier but colder temps, more PL)... somewhere in the middle we've got big ice. EURO is not more RA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We need a thread specifically for flooding in the areas of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky.... After all that is the number one weather killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'd take that Lawl... Yeah pretty sure Monday morning it will certainly be colder than freezing. Smh. But I agree. He always has had NW bias, I mean, why wouldn'cha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 We need a thread specifically for flooding in the areas of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky.... After all that is the number one weather killer http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42061-december-21-22-heavy-rainfloodingsevere-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Here is the list... 6 Ton of salt, chainsaw tuned and sharpened, got a 6" diameter wood chipper on hold and the generator is ready!!! Time to sit back, move some snow piles and play the waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 EURO is not more RA. I'll have to check again but the latest EURO has 0.93" plain rain while the latest GFS showing about 0.25" or less. EDIT: (for YYZ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'll have to check again but the latest EURO has 0.93" plain rain while the latest GFS showing about 0.25" or less. EDIT: (for YYZ) Actually on the latest Euro most of the precip falls as freezing rain and ice. Maybe some light rains to end it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Actually on the latest Euro most of the precip falls as freezing rain and ice. Maybe some light rains to end i Thanks Snowstorms. Try to make him read the text better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Fresh new 18z NAM rolling out. Get your calls in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Thanks Snowstorms. Try to make him read the text better. I'm sensing a burn here? You really think that entire 0.88" of precip will fall as ice? You're entitled to your opinion and I'm always open to learning more about how everyone forecasts but an explanation of your thinking instead of hurling insults would be welcome. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC -1.2 1.3 1016 85 76 0.01 557 545 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.5 3.2 1015 93 99 0.17 560 547 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.0 3.3 1007 94 100 0.63 558 552 SUN12Z 22-DEC 1.0 6.2 1002 93 24 0.88 555 554 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 2.7 5.1 1001 94 24 0.05 550 549 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Fresh new 18z NAM rolling out. Get your calls in! ha who knows probably hundred and fifty mile jump either right or left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Fresh new 18z NAM rolling out. Get your calls in! stronger and south more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanthunder Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Fresh new 18z NAM rolling out. Get your calls in! Ah hell, let's go for a 15 mile southeast shift cause why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 I'm sensing a burn here? You really think that entire 0.88" of precip will fall as ice? You're entitled to your opinion and I'm always open to learning more about how everyone forecasts but an explanation of your thinking instead of hurling insults would be welcome. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z DEC19 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 18Z 21-DEC -1.2 1.3 1016 85 76 0.01 557 545 SUN 00Z 22-DEC -1.5 3.2 1015 93 99 0.17 560 547 SUN 06Z 22-DEC -1.0 3.3 1007 94 100 0.63 558 552 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 1.0 6.2 1002 93 24 0.88 555 554 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 2.7 5.1 1001 94 24 0.05 550 549 I do think it will fall as ice. Why do you not want to believe that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 My guess is that roughly half of the 0.88" between 06z and 12z Sunday Dec 22 falls as ice. Add that to the 0.80" of ice that falls before, that's still a big ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 ha who knows probably hundred and fifty mile jump either right or left good call stronger and south more good call Ah hell, let's go for a 15 mile southeast shift cause why not. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.