Severe Weather Threat?

[chase_stormz]

Topic

[jaxjagman]

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST
NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WHILE ACQUIRING A NEGATIVE-TILT BEFORE APPROACHING THE MID-MS
VALLEY. A SUBSEQUENT STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
OCCUR...WITH A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SFC...A STALLED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ARKLATEX AND ALONG THE OH
VALLEY...WITH A MOIST GULF AIR MASS SPREADING INLAND S OF THE FRONT.
A LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF CNTRL TX AND TRACK NEWD NEAR THE POSITION
OF THE STALLED FRONT...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS...

OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW RICH GULF MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT NWD
ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL AREAS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S F LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS A COLD FRONT STALLS FROM
CENTRAL TX NEWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...RESULTING IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY A
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT PRIOR TO THE START OF THE D2 PERIOD
AND PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME ON SAT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP OUT OF
CNTRL TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX DURING THE MORNING...AND ACROSS
AR/LOWER OH VALLEY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS E TX AND LA/AR...BEFORE REACHING
THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY FOSTER AN
EWD SHIFT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME.

THE UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED WITH NEWD PROGRESSION. STRONGEST MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SRN OZARKS AND POINTS NEWD...MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT
AND SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...LATEST SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
LA AND SRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING E OF THE MS VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL INTENSIFY GREATLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE D2 PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED WIND PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS/TORNADOES. THE
MAGNITUDE OF EACH INDIVIDUAL THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLUTION. TSTMS MAY TREND TOWARDS LINEAR INVOF BOTH
THE STALLED FRONT AND COLD FRONT. A MIX OF QUASI-LINEAR AND CLUSTER
MODES MAY EXIST FARTHER S WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...WHERE BOTH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...BUT MERIDIONAL WIND
PROFILES WILL PROMOTE STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY DISCRETE OR CLUSTER TSTMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY.

PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES/LIMITATIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL BUOYANCY/MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR
/PARTIALLY OWING TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING/...AND CONVECTIVE MODE
EVOLUTION. BUOYANCY DECREASES MARKEDLY FARTHER N INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY...BUT STRONG WIND PROFILES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DMGG
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW TRACKING NEWD. FARTHER S...PRIMARY SFC LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL
BECOME WELL SEPARATED FROM THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST IN SOME FORM /BROKEN LINE AND/OR CLUSTERS/
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC-BASED PARCELS.

..ROGERS.. 12/20/2013

 

 

[Stovepipe]

[dwagner88]

Just as a heads up for anyone who might be travelling US 64 through the Ocoee gorge this weekend, there is a decent chance that the rock slide near MM 11 in Polk county will slide again with Sunday's rain. It has been a little unstable this week. TDOT is going to have people out there 24/7 watching it.

[jaxjagman]

TOR:CON SATURDAY:

AR northeast, central, south - 7
AL north - 4
IL extreme south - 4
IN extreme south - 3
KY west - 5
KY central - 3 to 4
LA north, west-central -  7
LA southwest - 5
LA southeast - 4 to 5
MO bootheel - 4 to 5
MS north, west - 7
MS east - 6
TN west - 7
TN middle - 5
TX east - 5
TX south-central near San Antonio, Austin, Corpus Christi - 3 to 4
other areas - 1 or less

[Witness Protection Program]

Just as a heads up for anyone who might be travelling US 64 through the Ocoee gorge this weekend, there is a decent chance that the rock slide near MM 11 in Polk county will slide again with Sunday's rain. It has been a little unstable this week. TDOT is going to have people out there 24/7 watching it.

 

 

Hopefully with cameras rolling so they can video if a car gets crushed.  Will monitor youtube.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/CNTRL LA/MS...ERN
AR...WRN TN...SWRN KY...NWRN AL...MO BOOTHEEL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST
TO THE OH VALLEY...

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...SOME
OF WHICH SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH INVOF THE AZ/NM/MEXICAN BORDER WILL MOVE
EWD INTO WRN TX THIS MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NEWD AND DAMPENING
SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY. A SWATH OF INTENSE
LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE FROM THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES TO THE MIDWEST. MODEST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG AN INITIALLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE. PRIMARY SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MIDWEST. AS THIS
OCCURS...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EWD AS A COLD
FRONT.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY...
A BROAD WARM SECTOR OF 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED
AHEAD OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM CNTRL TX TO THE MID-SOUTH.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVANCE NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL
LARGELY DELINEATE THE NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
ALTHOUGH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT STEEPER LAPSE
RATES...PROGRESSIVELY RICH PW VALUES TOWARDS THE GULF COAST SHOULD
YIELD WEAK TO MODEST BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PROBABLE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT
12Z/SAT...GENERALLY WITHIN AND N OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR...00Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS THE SABINE TO LOWER
MS VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHT VEER-BACK DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXIST WITH SWRN EXTENT...LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS AOA
50 KT WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THIS LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES /SOME
OF WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG/.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD...CONSOLIDATION OF
FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL LIKELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE
QLCS BY AFTERNOON. AMIDST 700 MB SWLYS AOA 60 KT AND VERY LARGE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE
E/NEWD WITH RISKS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NERN EXTENT AND BECOME RATHER
LIMITED...THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW REGIME MAY MAINTAIN A VIGOROUS
QLCS AS FAR NE AS THE OH VALLEY.

FARTHER S...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATER IN
THE PERIOD...RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW
IS MAINTAINED AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

Just expanded

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND LWR
TN VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM E TX AND THE CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TNGT OVER THE LWR MS
AND LWR TN VLYS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO SWATHS OF DMGG WINDS.

POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING W TX SHOULD PIVOT NE ACROSS THE
RED RVR VLY LATER TODAY/EARLY TNGT...AND ACCELERATE NE INTO IL EARLY
SUN...AS LARGE-SCALE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ASSUME A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT BEFORE IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY
LATER SUN.

AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE...STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
A SWATH OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR TO SURGE NE ACROSS THE LWR MS
VLY INTO MUCH OF THE OH VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. COUPLED WITH
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE UPR IMPULSE...SETUP WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF TSTMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH DMGG WIND
AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES LATER TODAY INTO TNGT.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF CST INTO THE OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SFC OBS SHOW STRONG/BROAD CURRENT OF VERY MOIST AIR SURGING N FROM
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ATTM INTO THE LWR MS VLY...AHEAD OF
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH W TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS BUOYS REPORT 30 KT SLY FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70 F IN AREA
WITH PW AOA 1.50 INCHES. THE MOIST PLUME WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE
ACROSS THE OH VLY THROUGH EARLY SUN...AND LARGELY DELINEATE THE
NRN/ERN EXTENT OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT DIURNAL STEEPENING OF LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES OVER MOST
AREAS. BUT QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL EML
LIKELY WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/
FOR SUSTAINED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LWR MS VLY/DEEP SOUTH.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS NOW OCCURRING ALONG AND W OF THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH/COVERAGE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE WARM SECTOR. TOGETHER WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING OF CONFLUENT LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...SETUP ALSO MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER FAR E TX...LA...ERN AR...AND MS BY EARLY AFTN.

ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY AND NEGATIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN WIND PROFILES WITH A SLIGHT VEER-BACK PATTERN
IN THE VERTICAL...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD /WITH 60-70 KT 850-700
MB WINDS BENEATH 100 KT FLOW AT 250 MB/ WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG/...SHOULD EXIST OVER PARTS OF LA...AR...MS...AND WRN TN THIS
AFTN/EARLY TNGT.

CONTINUED NE MOTION OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD FOSTER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL STORMS INTO A FAIRLY
LENGTHY SQLN BY MID-LATE AFTN. ATTENDANT FAST-MOVING BOW/LEWP
STRUCTURES WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...IN
ADDITION TO A FEW TORNADOES...INTO THE NIGHT FROM WRN/CNTRL KY SSW
THROUGH TN INTO MS...AL...AND LA. IN ADDITION...ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY
WILL DECREASE WITH NEWD EXTENT...THE STRONGEST LOW-LVL MASS
CONVERGENCE/WAA WILL FOCUS ON THE OH VLY BY LATE EVE. COUPLED WITH
THE INTENSITY OF THE WIND FIELD...AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST SFC
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT PART OF THE FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE OH
VLY...ISOLD TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS FAR N AS
PARTS OF IND...OH...AND WV THROUGH SUN MORNING.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 12/21/2013

 

 

 

 

[jaxjagman]

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

The NWS Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma is forecasting
the development of a few strong tornadoes and swaths of damaging
wind over parts of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today
through tonight.

The areas most likely to experience this activity include:

Northwest Alabama
Central and Eastern Arkansas
Western Kentucky
Much of Louisiana
Far Southeast Missouri
Western and Northern Mississippi
Western and Middle Tennessee

Surrounding the greatest risk area, severe storms are also possible
from eastern Texas and the central Gulf Coast region into the Ohio
Valley.

A potent jet stream disturbance now over west Texas will track
northeast into Red River Valley later today, before accelerating
northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight and early Sunday.

Associated with this disturbance, an area of low pressure now
forming over eastern Texas will become better organized as it moves
northeast into southern Arkansas this afternoon, northwest Tennessee
this evening, and the lower Ohio Valley early Sunday.

Ahead of the low, a broad flow of unseasonably warm and humid air
will surge north from the western Gulf of Mexico into the lower
Mississippi, the lower Tennessee, and the Ohio Valleys through early
Sunday.

The increasing moisture and strong wind field that will accompany
the jet stream impulse will create an environment favorable for
bands of rotating thunderstorms capable of both potentially strong
tornadoes and damaging wind over a broad swath extending from
eastern Texas and southern Louisiana northeastward into the lower
Mississippi and lower Tennessee Valleys.

Although the severe weather threat is expected to be greatest this
afternoon through early tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas,
Mississippi, and Tennessee, a more conditional risk for tornadoes
and damaging winds will persist into early Sunday from the central
Gulf Coast northeast into the mid-Ohio Valley.

State and local emergency managers are monitoring this developing
situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe
weather safety rules and to listen to radio, television, and NOAA
Weather Radio for possible watches, warnings, and statements later
today.

..Corfidi.. 12/21/2013

[tnweathernut]

I am spending time with family just outside of Nashville this weekend. Looks like it might be a little bumpy later today and tonight. Stay safe my middle and west TN friends.

First large sever box has been issued.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jaxjagman]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 321 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HUGHES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUGHES AND
WEST MEMPHIS.

[jaxjagman]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

321 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CST

* AT 321 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR HUGHES...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUGHES AND

WEST MEMPHIS.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
450 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 450 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF FORT CAMPBELL
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 580...WW 582...

DISCUSSION...QLCS IS ORGANIZING NEAR THE MS RIVER AND WILL SURGE
NEWD THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...IT IS BASED NEAR THE GROUND
AND THE MOIST PROFILES WITH VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...THOMPSON

 

 

[jaxjagman]

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 545 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF OXFORD MISSISSIPPI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 582. WATCH NUMBER 582 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
545 PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 583...WW 584...

DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MS
AND FROM WRN INTO MIDDLE TN...AS EMBEDDED CELLS MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE
NE. A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR EMBEDDED
CIRCULATIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES...AS WELL
AS SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...THOMPSON

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

CBS up above

[jaxjagman]

Nice bow line showing up,should be strong  winds setting up,definite need to watch this

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN MS...NWRN
AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN/CNTRL KY...FAR SRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO
THE OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL GULF COAST TO OH VALLEY...
WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CNTRL OH S/SWWD TO SWRN
LA. TWO DISTINCT SURFACE CYCLONES HAVE PERSISTED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...ONE ALONG THE KY/SWRN IND BORDER AND THE OTHER NEAR THE
AR/TN BORDER. THE MOST INTENSE LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITHIN AN
EXTENSIVE QLCS WERE LOCATED INVOF THESE CYCLONES AND WILL LIKELY
POSE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE. THE NRN CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
DOMINANT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER OK PROGRESSES NEWD
TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...THESE LEWP/BOWS WILL
LIKELY RACE NEWD TOWARDS THE TN AND CNTRL OH VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY IS ONLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG PER 00Z JAN/BNA/BMX
RAOBS...PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES
/POSSIBLY STRONG/ THROUGH THE EVENING. INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL LAPSE
RATES WITH NRN EXTENT SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THE
QLCS ACROSS THE CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST...THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS OWING TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUALLY WEAKENING LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. BUT WITH THE
PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT/QLCS MAY MAINTAIN A CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHING E/NEWD
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE ISOLATED RISKS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO.

[Witness Protection Program]

Tor warns approaching Jackson, TN and SW of Oxford, MS.

[jaxjagman]

TORNADO WARNING
TNC079-220200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0038.131222T0119Z-131222T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 720 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF COTTAGE
GROVE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF MCKENZIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PARIS AND
PARIS LANDING STATE PARK.

[jaxjagman]

650 0-1 km SRH in W/Tn and growing..lookslike a bow line though,will have to watch,either way it will be some imperssive winds

[jaxjagman]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...CNTRL KY..WCNTRL TN...NRN MS AND NW AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 583...585...

VALID 220140Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 583...585...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 583 AND WW
585 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A
SQUALL-LINE MOVING EWD INTO CNTRL KY...MIDDLE TN AND NW AL. WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN THE HALF HOUR ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED MULTI-SEGMENTED SQUALL-LINE CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM SRN IND SSWWD ACROSS WRN KY INTO WRN TN AND NRN MS. ON
THE NRN EDGE OF THE LINE...AN INTENSE BOW ECHO WILL MOVE INTO THE
LOUISVILLE AND CINCINNATI AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THE BOW ECHO IS LOCATED ON THE NOSE
OF AN 80-90 KT JET NEAR 700 MB. THIS IS CREATING VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE WSR-88D VWP AT
LOUISVILLE KY WHICH SHOWS 70 TO 80 KT OF FLOW ABOUT 1 KM OFF THE
SFC. THIS ALONG WITH THE NEWD MOVEMENT AT 50 TO 55 KT SUGGESTS THAT
THE SQUALL-LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE SQUALL-LINE HAS SHOWN INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND NRN MS. THIS PART OF THE
SQUALL-LINE IS LOCATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WITH WIND SPEEDS OF
80 TO 90 KT. THIS ALONG WITH MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NW AL AND MIDDLE TN SHOULD ENABLE THE LINE TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING. A STRONG TORNADO MAY
OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS.
ALSO...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE SQUALL-LINE MOVES INTO MIDDLE TN
AND NRN AL LATE THIS EVENING.

[jaxjagman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
820 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 820 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

[jaxjagman]

Just got our net back,had a couple tornades.Not sure how bad though

[jaxjagman]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

 

Cant really confirm any tornadoes,but wind damage was extreme and took lives

 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

[Witness Protection Program]

Just got our net back,had a couple tornades.Not sure how bad though

 

 

Yeah, my stupid Comcast went out an hour before the squall line arrived.

 

More annoyed that I couldn't get the NOAA websites to properly load on my phone all day, especially while the line approached and passed.  Problem was clearly on their end because I never had a problem streaming WSMV's tv coverage on my phone the entire time.  Is there any way to turn off WSMV's close captioning, because it usually blocked my area of the radar on their coverage.  Channel 5's live app wasn't working, Fox's was but was blurry, and couldn't find a live stream option on channel 2's.

[Stovepipe]

Justin Bruce did a nice job covering this on WKRN.

[Carvers Gap]

Significant severe wx event for TN Valley, considering it is mid-December...

[Carvers Gap]

At 1:37 AM, looks like some strong storms moving out of the southwest onto the northern Cumberland Plateau.  I imagine those are rattling some windows.  Would be interested to see if anyone has a report from that area........