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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Then all the mundane torches we never remember like Jan '99 after being near 5F and snowing, Jan '05 (we always forget since the 2nd half overshadowed it), Jan '10 cutter about 5-6 days after MLK storm.

 

Then you have the list was just plain sh** Januarys like 2002, 2006, 1995, 1992, 1990, 1986, etc.

 

Yeah absolutely. Some of those probably are more pertinent to you since I didn't have much to melt, but I remember those. December 2003 near and post Christmas was ugly too.

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96 we know but how much snowpack was lost in the other cases? What about post Boxing Day 2010?

From Boxing Day through mid February I had snow on the ground - if I'm not mistaken it was the longest or second longest stretch with consecutive days with 1" or more in NYC in recorded history.

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Both cars washed right down to the inner rims where the brake pads are....sparkling clean. 

 

NOW it'll turn cold and stormy.  That always does the trick.

 

Still can't get over how nice it was outside today.  This multi day torch was nice, now bring on the second half of winter starting this weekend before we rinse and repeat 2/5-10

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Does anyone remember Nov 87 one? We had 6-10 from a storm around Nov 10, and another storm came like a day or 2 later. All forecasts had it being another snowstorm . I remember hauling wood up to the house for the fireplace and it started as freezing rain. I had no idea at that time what that meant. When I woke up the next morning it was totally gone. Just wiped out. Even most of the snow banks. That is why I fear cutters. That traumatized me.

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From Boxing Day through mid February I had snow on the ground - if I'm not mistaken it was the longest or second longest stretch with consecutive days with 1" or more in NYC in recorded history.

 We had at least an inch on the ground from 12/27 - 2/28, then a trace through 3/6.  Peak depth was 26" in late January, then February was a gradual melt out.

 

This winter is not a disaster for snowfall, but can't seem to keep it on the ground for long.

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What did the weeklies show yesterday?

 

Jeez, totally forgot about them. Basically a continued ridge stretching from the Aleutians through AK and the North Pole into week 4. This was followed by lower heights stretching from SW-NE from the west coast into Greenland with some ridging across the east coast albeit weak. The 500mb ridging was weak enough to keep te,ps near to below week 3-4. All in all it doesn't look a whole lot different, other than the PNA dropping by week 4, which will try to being storminess further north I think. Week 4 as you know has not been that reliable though. 

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Does anyone remember Nov 87 one? We had 6-10 from a storm around Nov 10, and another storm came like a day or 2 later. All forecasts had it being another snowstorm . I remember hauling wood up to the house for the fireplace and it started as freezing rain. I had no idea at that time what that meant. When I woke up the next morning it was totally gone. Just wiped out. Even most of the snow banks. That is why I fear cutters. That traumatized me.

 

I've never seen someone your age fear cutters. You really to get scared by them. 

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What did the weeklies show yesterday?

 

Jeez, totally forgot about them. Basically a continued ridge stretching from the Aleutians through AK and the North Pole into week 4. This was followed by lower heights stretching from SW-NE from the west coast into Greenland with some ridging across the east coast albeit weak. The 500mb ridging was weak enough to keep te,ps near to below week 3-4. All in all it doesn't look a whole lot different, other than the PNA dropping by week 4, which will try to being storminess further north I think. Week 4 as you know has not been that reliable though. 

Thank you! We should be nicely set up 1/20-2/10. Let's see what it produces

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Does anyone remember Nov 87 one? We had 6-10 from a storm around Nov 10, and another storm came like a day or 2 later. All forecasts had it being another snowstorm . I remember hauling wood up to the house for the fireplace and it started as freezing rain. I had no idea at that time what that meant. When I woke up the next morning it was totally gone. Just wiped out. Even most of the snow banks. That is why I fear cutters. That traumatized me.

not much hope in November anyway.  It's the January wipeouts that kill me.   Nothing worse than a pack wiped out in the heart of winter

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Tippy where have you been? I posted the link this morning from the 06z GEFS members to show the potential increased storminess. Now granted they may not all verify, but the point is that things will change after next week. 

 

Okay, missed that ... (I'm involved in other stuff).

 

Call this some "storm regime continuity" then, and it has it's merit ... Particularly because the D7 deal may just be an emerging signal here.  It's a bit more discrete than the 50, 000' view

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Fun post Tip.  I feel many of the same emotions that you poetically describe.  But those ensemble member runs aren't even the most impressive of this week.  This time of year, with arctic cold in Canada, and the warm gulf stream nearby, there is almost always big potential lurking out over the 7 day horizon.  A single ensemble member out that far is likely to be a fictional construction and probably not worth much attention.  Then again... it's not completely on its own as you point out, with the Euro and CMC showing something in the same range.  And there is even more support on the GEFs for a coastal a day later, on day 8.  But I think you take it a little too far, and it's maybe not a realistic starting point for a discussion of future threats.

 

It wasn't too long ago that the MRF was run out to 120 hours once a day and the ETA to 48 hours, twice a day.  We didn't have access to ensembles (except for the occasional mention in a HPC discussion), much less the ability to inspect individual ensemble members four times a day.  I think a big part of the reason why you (we) often feel that the weather gods are against us is because we get to pour over so much data.  I bet if we had the computing power and modern models available back in the late 90s, there would have been many periods back then that felt like really bad luck.

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Okay... I'll just move that one over there, too...

I just don't mean to take ownership of all these threads ...give others a chance, but fine -

I don't think it matters. If it looks interesting which it does...go ahead and start one. I was probably going to do one tomorrow about the time beyond next week, but feel free.

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