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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Looking forward to dry ball shriveling cold next week. Epic

Me too..

This is winter. I wait all year for it. I don't need snow OTG to enjoy impressive cold. Sure, I might sound crazy saying I enjoy a PV up my fanny. However there is something awesome about arctic air and caa that shakes the house. Bundle up weenies. The snow will come whenthis pattern starts.

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The PV retrogression by the 28th, just as ridging flexes its muscles over Alaska and the arctic. That's when a larger winter event could happen.

HM posted these thoughts 3 days ago too. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Something that unfortunately has been lacking.

We've been talking about that for a while as well but he never posts here. That was the point about the PV retreating, heights out west lowering showing the potential for PAC jet to undercut with s/w disturbances, and heights rising downstream. I think that is when we see the potential for larger events as you said, but beware the close proximity tracks too.

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HPC's morning mid-range discussion:

 

..SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WARM/DRY RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /IN THE
10-20F BELOW CLIMO RANGE/ ARE LIKELY IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN/SOUTHEASTER STATES THANKS TO REINFORCING ARCTIC
PUSH EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... BUT LESS INTENSE THAN THE
RECORD COLD IN THE EAST SEEN MORE THAN A WEEK AGO. TEMPERATURES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REBOUND
MODESTLY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A
STORM TRACK WHERE MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CAN GENERATE MOISTURE
WITHIN A VERY DRY AND COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS. BENEATH THIS SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MIGRATING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RARELY EXCEED 1/10TH OF AN INCH. WITH
PW VALUES BELOW CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE CONUS... IT IS ABOUT AS DRY
A PATTERN AS ONE WOULD SEE FOR MID-WINTER.

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Well, I will say that many of the :weenie: posts lead by Kevin were locking in 3 accumulating snowfalls starting with Wednesday of this week, then the Saturday deal, and then next Tuesday.

 

It was pretty easy to post 4 days ago and said that all of those looked tenuous at best.

 

I certainly don't think a quiet (but cold) pattern is unreasonable for at least M-F next week. As I've mentioned I think next weekend, prior to reload, we have a chance. 

I think a lot of the angst eminates from the fact that we are coming  out of a rather mundane 2 week thaw, and this reload has been greatly anticipated to say the least....so kicking it off with another 10 days of cold and dry is going to have a lot of folks ready to smoke a tail pipe at the prospect of having to endure nearly a month of ennui on the heals of what was a fun stretch.

It feels like 2 weeks but it's closer to a week.

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I don't think anyone wants or needs a big event right now. All we want is a ground whitener or 2 of a couple inches. Just to raise spirits. No one was expecting massive snows this week

Wat?

Come on bro...you post ridic stuff on purpose. I think behind ur smartphone or monitor you laugh at every post you make as you watch people gravitate towards them.

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The PV retrogression by the 28th, just as ridging flexes its muscles over Alaska and the arctic. That's when a larger winter event could happen.

HM posted these thoughts 3 days ago too. Gotta give credit where credit is due. Something that unfortunately has been lacking.

I was thinking the energy around the 25th looked to have a shot, but it looks like after that shortwave, there is a relaxation. The H5 heights on say the 12z GFS for example go from the lowest being found north of Montreal early next week, to up near James Bay around the 26-27th. That re-structuring would allow a much better chance for something to amplify on the east coast.

Of course the 27th-30th is still a long way away and close to a January punt, but maybe a warning event on the 28th or something could save the month from a complete 60-yard punt to a 35-yard shank, lol.

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Haha okay okay we get it. You have a kid and own a house but you aren't fooling anyone weenie! You can't be too busy to have nine billion posts. You want it to snow just as bad!!

Definitely. But for now, I don't have the bummer feeling like I did in years past....probably because of what I see going forward and what I've had already. I'm content.

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Definitely. But for now, I don't have the bummer feeling like I did in years past....probably because of what I see going forward and what I've had already. I'm content.

Go look at last Jan's threads... you were knitting reindeer sweaters and pm'ing 'freak for directions to the best chairlift...

 

Good times ahead...

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Lol...you were sub freezing for another week. If periods between snows are thaws then they characterize most of your average winter.

Well, since it was an extremely low water content event, it began sublimating quite a bit soone after it stopped.

Regardless, snow has been steadily vanishing for 2 weeks without replenishment.

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Go look at last Jan's threads... you were knitting reindeer sweaters and pm'ing 'freak for directions to the best chairlift...

 

Good times ahead...

 

Well that was brutal. Again, that changed my outlook on winter...just appreciate what falls because you never know if you have to endure a stretch like that again.

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