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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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regarding the two snowfalls last week, the areas that recieved two to two and one half inches monday night were SCATTERED AT BEST while Fridays waa was under an inch for MUCH OF THE AREA. Furthermore i traveled from spfd to rye ny in the snow last Friday leaving my .6 inches to find no more than 1 to 1.25 inches anyplace else. I understand you did well but those events were not that great in many areas.

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Oddly I have had a very full life for what seems like forever but am still questing for belly to belly winters, my passion has not wavered since I was probably 5 years old, very weird and each member of my family knows about my OCD for winter weather.

Well, you have your life in order...difference.

I have neglected major aspects of my life since the conclusion of grad school, so weather has taken a back seat for now.

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There is something miserable about sub zero temps and bare, brown, cracked earth underfoot, though...

I mean, will I lose it, no.....not like I would a couple of years ago because I now have a life, but it still blows.

Oddly I have had a very full life for what seems like forever but am still questing for belly to belly winters, my passion has not wavered since I was probably 5 years old, very weird and each member of my family knows about my OCD for winter weather.

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Yeah last banter post from me. Life is great. I have a wonderful family and a very interesting albeit demanding job. I'm in reasonably good health and I've seen heavy snow this winter.

But Steve is right... When it comes, we get crazy for the snow. Like Steve I remember being this way back to my earliest memory. I remember walking in the snow during a heavy snow burst circa 1950-52 roughly singing as I held my grandmothers hand.

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Yeah last banter post from me. Life is great. I have a wonderful family and a very interesting albeit demanding job. I'm in reasonably good health and I've seen heavy snow this winter.

But Steve is right... When it comes, we get crazy for the snow. Like Steve I remember being this way back to my earliest memory. I remember walking in the snow during a heavy snow burst circa 1950-52 roughly singing as I held my grandmothers hand.

:weenie:  :weenie:  :weenie:

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Reminds me of Jan last year...7 days before freezing and zero QPF

It's funny, that period keeps popping into my mind with the current outlook. What's also funny, is it is happening right around the exact same time frame as well.

There were some pretty cold days mixed into that stretch. And I believe we had 1 or 2 events one produced a dusting the other around an inch. I could totally see something like that occurring for the next week to 10 days.

Maybe a small 1-2 inch event pops up in close range, but this has a pretty similar feel to that period.

I would take that in a heartbeat if this year came with what followed last year lol

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There were some pretty cold days mixed into that stretch. And I believe we had 1 or 2 events one produced a dusting the other around an inch. I could totally see something like that occurring for the next week to 10 days.

Maybe a small 1-2 inch event pops up in close range, but this has a pretty similar feel to that period.

I would take that in a heartbeat if this year came with what followed last year lol

These cold/dry patterns have a tendency to snow on the back end of the cold as it relaxes, rather than the front side. Front side is usually more snow shower and low PWAT air with an arctic front...then you may nickle and dime while in the cold regime, but the better synoptic snows seem to come when you time the relaxation with some shortwaves coming through the Plains that ca amplify.

If it's just full-court press in the arctic cold, chances are those sneak out under New England, especially with this trough axis. In early January, the trough axis was further west which gave more room for cold snows in New England, but with this cold shot and the location of the core, we may have to wait till later on once the first big push of arctic air relaxes and may allow for some amplification...like next weekend or so. Just thinking aloud at least.

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These cold/dry patterns have a tendency to snow on the back end of the cold as it relaxes, rather than the front side. Front side is usually more snow shower and low PWAT air with an arctic front...then you may nickle and dime while in the cold regime, but the better synoptic snows seem to come when you time the relaxation with some shortwaves coming through the Plains that ca amplify.

If it's just full-court press in the arctic cold, chances are those sneak out under New England, especially with this trough axis. In early January, the trough axis was further west which gave more room for cold snows in New England, but with this cold shot and the location of the core, we may have to wait till later on once the first big push of arctic air relaxes and may allow for some amplification...like next weekend or so. Just thinking aloud at least.

That actually makes a lot of sense. I'm sure everyone will have a pop up dusting or an inch next week or something. It happened last year, and happened this year during cold spells, that just seems like a likely possibility.

But as you said, the core of the cold seems like it will displaced from where it was early month. It looks actually like it may be more overhead or at least closer by. This obviously as you pointed out, would shift the trough axis away from us for the time being until we get a relaxation.

I'm not really doubting are time will come, because I think it will for everyone, but it may be a week to 10 days. Which obviously is going to make people antsy, but the end game needs to be in focus as well. The cold will relax, and with any luck well have storm chances with that.

Speaking for my area anyway usually we have the moisture, and the cold is the more elusive of the two ingredients. If the cold is in place, I think it's only a matter of time before we see moisture

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