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January 2014 pattern discussion

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Cutters are inherently an issue with a pattern like this. It helps to have ridging out west, but sharp s/w's can amplify enough to make it ugly. I'm not saying I expect that...it's just the risk. We all know what the rewards are, so it's important to know the risks.

 

Jan '94 actually had 2 cutters...but they are largely forgotten given the rest of the month's epicness. Jan 17-18 (more like triple point over ALB or something but similar enough) and then of course Jan 28, 1994.

 

 

 

Jan 2009 was actually more immune to the cutters due to the large +PNA and western ridging. We pretty much avoided them the whole month...though Jan 28th was almost one...triple point low over PYM though kept it pretty cold after snow changed to mixed crap and eventually rain along coast.

 

But anytime we have a +NAO, its certainly on the table. Even -NAOs can produce them but obviously much harder.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Jan '94 actually had 2 cutters...but they are largely forgotten given the rest of the month's epicness. Jan 17-18 (more like triple point over ALB or something but similar enough) and then of course Jan 28, 1994.

 

 

 

Jan 2009 was actually more immune to the cutters due to the large +PNA and western ridging. We pretty much avoided them the whole month...though Jan 28th was almost one...triple point low over PYM though kept it pretty cold after snow changed to mixed crap and eventually rain along coast.

 

But anytime we have a +NAO, its certainly on the table. Even -NAOs can produce them but obviously much harder.

 

We may also see the mean trough shift west a bit near mid month...although we've seen models try to screw around with the pattern only to fall back. I just don't want to see anyone post about how they thought this would be an epic pattern if it's not. Hopefully people won't filter these posts out although if it's not conducive to all snow..I feel like they do. :lol:  

 

The pattern IMO and likely your opinion as well does look good. It's really tough to say much more than that. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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This pattern will produce some pretty significant cold shots...I think that is almost a given.

 

 

The analog patterns suggest the chance of a significant snow event is above average as well. That's about all you can ask for at this range. No guarantees, but you'll take those odds.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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This pattern will produce some pretty significant cold shots...I think that is almost a given.

The analog patterns suggest the chance of a significant snow event is above average as well. That's about all you can ask for at this range. No guarantees, but you'll take those odds.

Yep that's about all you can say. If certainly bet with those odds.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It's also good to see the ridging not really breaking down and this seems supported by the MJO. If anything even if the trough moves west a bit, we may see more Aleutian into AK ridging which may help reload more cold into Canada and points south.

Just to clarify, ridging meaning PNA/EPO type ridging.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Jan '94 actually had 2 cutters...but they are largely forgotten given the rest of the month's epicness. Jan 17-18 (more like triple point over ALB or something but similar enough) and then of course Jan 28, 1994.

 

 

 

Jan 2009 was actually more immune to the cutters due to the large +PNA and western ridging. We pretty much avoided them the whole month...though Jan 28th was almost one...triple point low over PYM though kept it pretty cold after snow changed to mixed crap and eventually rain along coast.

 

But anytime we have a +NAO, its certainly on the table. Even -NAOs can produce them but obviously much harder.

I remember that I went something obscene like 21 consecutive days without sniffing freezing, which is rare for the sne cp.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The long range GEFS show warm potential to me. Hopefully they're wrong.

Well that's the risk as the trough shifts west. But we may see a reload and the EPO is negative. Also GEFS were stormy at the end. I caution those using a smoothed out mean that is tainted by timing differences of storms.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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euro is pretty much how we don't want this to go. southern stream rainer...bitter cold...dying clipper south...milder with clipper passing north...then amped N stream cutter.

 

most of that is in the day 6-10 period so typical grains-of-salt considered. 

 

Yep, wasted cold FTL down here. Although, I think the euro argues for some snow chances.

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

Man. This thread is full of good news today. What happened

 

It is always disheartening when the 12z EURO comes out and doesn't show much of anything. 

 

There are still a decent amount of individual GFS ensembles that show a LARGE storm Day 7-10, still a while out, but I'd rather have warm and no snow chances than a cold pattern that doesn't deliver. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Jan 2009 might be a good analog for this pattern if the PNA stays more positive. Jan '94 was more neutral PNA to slightly neg.

 

 

Cutters are inherently an issue with a pattern like this. It helps to have ridging out west, but sharp s/w's can amplify enough to make it ugly. I'm not saying I expect that...it's just the risk. We all know what the rewards are, so it's important to know the risks.

 

 

Jan '94 actually had 2 cutters...but they are largely forgotten given the rest of the month's epicness. Jan 17-18 (more like triple point over ALB or something but similar enough) and then of course Jan 28, 1994.

 

 

 

Jan 2009 was actually more immune to the cutters due to the large +PNA and western ridging. We pretty much avoided them the whole month...though Jan 28th was almost one...triple point low over PYM though kept it pretty cold after snow changed to mixed crap and eventually rain along coast.

 

But anytime we have a +NAO, its certainly on the table. Even -NAOs can produce them but obviously much harder.

 

 

We may also see the mean trough shift west a bit near mid month...although we've seen models try to screw around with the pattern only to fall back. I just don't want to see anyone post about how they thought this would be an epic pattern if it's not. Hopefully people won't filter these posts out although if it's not conducive to all snow..I feel like they do. :lol:

 

The pattern IMO and likely your opinion as well does look good. It's really tough to say much more than that. 

 

 

It's also good to see the ridging not really breaking down and this seems supported by the MJO. If anything even if the trough moves west a bit, we may see more Aleutian into AK ridging which may help reload more cold into Canada and points south. 

 

 

This pattern will produce some pretty significant cold shots...I think that is almost a given.

 

 

The analog patterns suggest the chance of a significant snow event is above average as well. That's about all you can ask for at this range. No guarantees, but you'll take those odds.

 

 

Yep that's about all you can say. If certainly bet with those odds.

 

 

Just to clarify, ridging meaning PNA/EPO type ridging.

 

 

the pattern doesn't look all that great to me after the first week or so

 

 

The long range GEFS show warm potential to me. Hopefully they're wrong.

 

 

the cold in canada relaxes and there's w atlantic ridging

 

 

Well that's the risk as the trough shifts west. But we may see a reload and the EPO is negative. Also GEFS were stormy at the end. I caution those using a smoothed out mean that is tainted by timing differences of storms.

 

 

It's offshore, but I would keep en eye on it. I still wouldn't write it off but it doesn't look favorable.

 

 

Well it's not perfect.

 

 

euro is pretty much how we don't want this to go. southern stream rainer...bitter cold...dying clipper south...milder with clipper passing north...then amped N stream cutter.

 

most of that is in the day 6-10 period so typical grains-of-salt considered. 

 

 

Yep, wasted cold FTL down here. Although, I think the euro argues for some snow chances.

 

I think we are just discussing the possibilities. If 10 were a perfect pattern of cold and snow, I would give this a 7-8. Nothing wrong with that.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It is always disheartening when the 12z EURO comes out and doesn't show much of anything. 

 

There are still a decent amount of individual GFS ensembles that show a LARGE storm Day 7-10, still a while out, but I'd rather have warm and no snow chances than a cold pattern that doesn't deliver. 

 

Meh, euro op sucks after day 5-6.

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