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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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6" below normal for the date isn't even that bad. 40-50" on the season would be like 30" below normal the rest of the way. You guys are just really jaded right now.

The mountains are about 30" down (Mt Mansfield at 80" vs. Normal of 110") or about 70% of normal. But its the snow cover and pack that's the problem. Its (Mansfield) at its 7th lowest on record (as of yesterday) for the date, and for a local economy that's tourism-based, when there's no snow (or the quality is piss-poor as a block of ice) for any of its tourists to use, that's a problem. No snowmobiling, no snowshoeing, no cross country skiing, and for the resorts that don't make snow, no downhill skiing.

 

Also, probably 95% of the local's recreation in winter is snow-based.

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BTV Stats (which don't include today since it isn't midnight yet):

 

27.9" for the season to date which is 6.3" below normal.

Last year at the same point the total was 41.8"

So almost 14" off last year's pace and the normal for an entire season is 83" and change. We could be in for a sub 50 season, possibly sub 40 if it really stays dry.

 

No way its sub 40" and same with sub 50".  I know just as well as anyone that its been rough the past few weeks, but I fully expect us to get ours.  Feb/March/April can be snowy months.  Heck 2007 saw like 6 feet of snow at the summits in April.

 

I'm not making any statements past the end of January, beside to say like November was a good month, I think if we keep the cold in the region, the spring will be really wintery up here.  Sort of bookended.

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No way its sub 40" and same with sub 50".  I know just as well as anyone that its been rough the past few weeks, but I fully expect us to get ours.  Feb/March/April can be snowy months.  Heck 2007 saw like 6 feet of snow at the summits in April.

 

I'm not making any statements past the end of January, beside to say like November was a good month, I think if we keep the cold in the region, the spring will be really wintery up here.  Sort of bookended.

That's the feel in the office too.

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The mountains are about 30" down (Mt Mansfield at 80" vs. Normal of 110") or about 70% of normal. But its the snow cover and pack that's the problem. Its (Mansfield) at its 7th lowest on record (as of yesterday) for the date, and for a local economy that's tourism-based, when there's no snow (or the quality is piss-poor as a block of ice) for any of its tourists to use, that's a problem. No snowmobiling, no snowshoeing, no cross country skiing, and for the resorts that don't make snow, no downhill skiing.

Also, probably 95% of the local's recreation in winter is snow-based.

yeah...it's a bummer when your economy is dependent on the snow. It's easy for me to sit back and say it's no big deal if I don't get snow for a few weeks since I unfortunately don't ski. You guys have just had some bad luck. When SNE was snowing you were getting flurried. Then on the overrunning systems you racked up the ice while YUL snowed.
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yeah...it's a bummer when your economy is dependent on the snow. It's easy for me to sit back and say it's no big deal if I don't get snow for a few weeks since I unfortunately don't ski. You guys have just had some bad luck. When SNE was snowing you were getting flurried. Then on the overrunning systems you racked up the ice while YUL snowed.

 

 

It's a raw deal and it was very much being underplayed by some around here.  Every weekend that ticks by without a significant snowfall or any snowfall for that matter is another weekend they can't make up.  Hopefully it turns around before the February vacation weeks but at the rate this "snow up" is going who knows.

 

Shivering on brown grass FTL in February?

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yeah...it's a bummer when your economy is dependent on the snow. It's easy for me to sit back and say it's no big deal if I don't get snow for a few weeks since I unfortunately don't ski. You guys have just had some bad luck. When SNE was snowing you were getting flurried. Then on the overrunning systems you racked up the ice while YUL snowed.

Yeah it was actually quite comical at times watching it unfold lol.

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Got a question for you ocean guys...I've noticed that a lot of these progs have near constant precipitation being printed out over like the entire eastern seaboard just off the coast... its always light precip, but its there regardless of what H7 and H85 relative humidity plots show.  Is that like extreme low level OES or freezing mist or something?  Does it actually precipitate that widespread over the ocean with these cold shots? 

 

LIke with the PV near us, the recent runs will print like days worth of 6-hour panels of measurable precip from the coastline eastward (from like Maine to the Carolinas).  Say the 18z GFS has over 60 straight hours of measurable just off the coast.  Does that actually occur or is it just a function of the model thinks it should be precipitating because of the cold air moving over the ocean?  It just seems odd to blow up the entire eastern coastal water with precip for like days straight.

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Got a question for you ocean guys...I've noticed that a lot of these progs have near constant precipitation being printed out over like the entire eastern seaboard just off the coast... its always light precip, but its there regardless of what H7 and H85 relative humidity plots show.  Is that like extreme low level OES or freezing mist or something?  Does it actually precipitate that widespread over the ocean with these cold shots? 

 

LIke with the PV near us, the recent runs will print like days worth of 6-hour panels of measurable precip from the coastline eastward (from like Maine to the Carolinas).  Say the 18z GFS has over 60 straight hours of measurable just off the coast.  Does that actually occur or is it just a function of the model thinks it should be precipitating because of the cold air moving over the ocean?  It just seems odd to blow up the entire eastern coastal water with precip for like days straight.

It's real. As long as your delta-T's are up there you're going to generate cloud streets and low-level showers. You have abundant salt nuclei to work with too.

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While driving home this evening if I did not know any better, I would have said that it was a late March/Early April evening with a NE flow. The mist/fog with temps in the upper 30s. We are all driving back to January soon....

I commented several times to people while skiing tonight: felt like late March. No snow in the woods, soft granular
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I know people are antsy and we all understand that. Absolutely. However I think most of us have done a good job outlining how this plays out. If its cold and dry through Valentines Day then Powderfreak had every right to tie his hemp necklace around my neck and dangle me over the cliff next to the 3K snow stake.

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I know people are antsy and we all understand that. Absolutely. However I think most of us have done a good job outlining how this plays out. If its cold and dry through Valentines Day then Powderfreak had every right to tie his hemp necklace around my neck and dangle me over the cliff next to the 3K snow stake.

Good thing he doesn't have a pony-o to strangle himself with.
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