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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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ecens are not impressed right now. Still some time though.

Even though we tell people not to get excited, they'll b**ch and moan to high heaven if Tuesday misses.

Looking ahead, it looks like a massive ridge will pop over the north pole as lower heights undercut that ridge over the west coast. That means we will probably ease the coast to start February, but opens the door for lows to approach.

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Scraped?  I think we will do better than a few scrapes on the 22nd.

 

one thing you should do, imo, is not talk with so much certainty. its great to be positive, I look at it the same way....but you will get burned way too many times when you say "we WILL do better". yes, the POSSIBILITY is there for something better but right now most of the ens are misses. why swing for the fences when the ball is head hide out of the zone?

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No precip into ENY?

 A few tenths on a 48hr mean...congrats? 

Even though we tell people not to get excited, they'll b**ch and moan to high heaven if Tuesday misses.

Looking ahead, it looks like a massive ridge will pop over the north pole as lower heights undercut that ridge over the west coast. That means we will probably ease the coast to start February, but opens the door for lows to approach.

It's a very cold pattern and with that pig ridge out west it's hard to imagine getting shutout by every possible s/w. I laugh when I see people post about 16d total QPF being so dry and that we're going to waste the cold. A lot of our storms don't start showing up on modeling until we're inside a week.
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Even though we tell people not to get excited, they'll b**ch and moan to high heaven if Tuesday misses.

Looking ahead, it looks like a massive ridge will pop over the north pole as lower heights undercut that ridge over the west coast. That means we will probably ease the coast to start February, but opens the door for lows to approach.

Well I think that's fair to moan if Tuesday ends up sunny. You guys all said you liked the 22 threat and felt very strongly it was coming
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 A few tenths on a 48hr mean...congrats? It's a very cold pattern and with that pig ridge out west it's hard to imagine getting shutout by every possible s/w. I laugh when I see people post about 16d total QPF being so dry and that we're going to waste the cold. A lot of our storms don't start showing up on modeling until we're inside a week.

 

 

This is particularly true in a northern stream dominated pattern with a poleward PAC ridge.

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Well I think that's fair to moan if Tuesday ends up sunny. You guys all said you liked the 22 threat and felt very strongly it was coming

Strongly?

Yes we said we liked it as a threat. I still do, especially east.....but it is just that....a threat. Some of you have a bad habit as treating threat as actuality. I'm not emotionally invested in it, I suggest others to do the same this far out.

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Well I think that's fair to moan if Tuesday ends up sunny. You guys all said you liked the 22 threat and felt very strongly it was coming

 

 

Not all threats work out. Even ones that are signaled fairly strongly. If they all did, we'd average way more snow than we do.

 

Wait another day or two on the 1/22 idea...it might end up to suppressed, but there's more in the pipeline.

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Strongly?

Yes we said we liked it as a threat. I still do, especially east.....but it is just that....a threat. Some of you have a bad habit as treating threat as actuality. I'm not emotionally invested in it, I suggest others to do the same this far out.

This morning you said it's coming. I still think it is too, but if it ends up missing folks have a right to complain this time. I'm just gonna enjoy the light snow I get tonite
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 A few tenths on a 48hr mean...congrats? It's a very cold pattern and with that pig ridge out west it's hard to imagine getting shutout by every possible s/w. I laugh when I see people post about 16d total QPF being so dry and that we're going to waste the cold. A lot of our storms don't start showing up on modeling until we're inside a week.

 

 

This is particularly true in a northern stream dominated pattern with a poleward PAC ridge.

I don"t know how many times this needs to be beaten into peoples heads,QPF queens, please tell Eric Fisher.

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please everyone breathe a sigh of relief the whine sessions from NNE are over.. Bridge jumpers saved, electrical grids turned back on, only one confirmed suicide but he was an import from the deep south. (now punting for the Cowboys as he attempted to punt January but missed)

 

So getting 1-2" of snow on January 16th, with 4" on the month is a missed punt?  lol you crack me up Ginxy, but yes we have been saved by 1" of 20:1 ratio snow.  Now if it continues to do this daily for the next two weeks then we can talk about missed punts ;)

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So getting 1-2" of snow on January 16th, with 4" on the month is a missed punt?  lol you crack me up Ginxy, but yes we have been saved by 1" of 20:1 ratio snow.  Now if it continues to do this daily for the next two weeks then we can talk about missed punts ;)

My heart bleeds for you it really really does.

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Some people on here are incredible. Why is everyone okay with people posting massive snowstorms 10 days out, but as soon as one person says its going to be dry for a week, he is attacked and brutalized? Everyone's talking like this pattern has already produced three blizzards and the future epic snow storms are a lock. Guess what they're not.

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Some people on here are incredible. Why is everyone okay with people posting massive snowstorms 10 days out, but as soon as one person says its going to be dry for a week, he is attacked and brutalized? Everyone's talking like this pattern has already produced three blizzards and the future epic snow storms are a lock. Guess what they're not.

:weenie: link to the brutalization attacks? relax no one has locked anything up from, GGEM solutions to dry humpy GFS, hardly think your drama is warranted, lots of stuff being put out there most of it in fun, geez  thought you didnt like winter anyways???

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Some people on here are incredible. Why is everyone okay with people posting massive snowstorms 10 days out, but as soon as one person says its going to be dry for a week, he is attacked and brutalized? Everyone's talking like this pattern has already produced three blizzards and the future epic snow storms are a lock. Guess what they're not.

Who is being attacked and brutalized? I don't see anyone locking in anything. The euro this morning dropped a lot of snow over the region d9-10 and I don't think I saw 1 post mentioning it.
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Who is being attacked and brutalized? I don't see anyone locking in anything. The euro this morning dropped a lot of snow over the region d9-10 and I don't think I saw 1 post mentioning it.

Yep and the GGEM epic solution got very little notice. Much ado about nothing, apparently the meltdowns are not over, electric grid back on cancel?

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My heart bleeds for you it really really does.

 

that snow is 2-3" deep- nice aesthetic in that shot, but far from anything of utility for recreation.  We need another 2-3 feet of snow, really. My seasons  pass is useless for XC skiing right now as they have zero base, washed out and "refreshed" with 2-3" of snow on dirt.  It's really still pretty bad around there. 

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:weenie: link to the brutalization attacks? relax no one has locked anything up from, GGEM solutions to dry humpy GFS, hardly think your drama is warranted, lots of stuff being put out there most of it in fun, geez  thought you didnt like winter anyways???

Oh just the minute anyone has posted anything related to this pattern being "not epic", dry, or not producing snow, they've been dismissed and ridiculed.

 

And no I don't like winter lol, but I can't stand wishcasting.

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