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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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It happened in 1994...like 3 days apart. :lol:

 

 

This would have longevity in the overall cold (surrounding the core of it) and probably a good pattern for a reload. I have been stating in this thread for a while that the pattern looked ripe for multiple arctic outbreaks..and still does of course. The arctic cold signal has been pretty overwhelming on the ensemble data (you can't just look at the mean 850 temps...you want to look at 5H heights). It was textbook pattern for major arctic outbreak.

yea seeing 484 heights in New England is sort of a red flag, the Euro depiction at day ten borders on insane

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Kev he grew up in Western Mass, he knows the climo just saw the GFS/GEFS and punted .

Entirely possible we skunk the next 10 days (aside from the incoming chill).  That said, as Scooter has mentioned so many times recently, models will have a tough time with this pattern, so model huggers should not go into deep depression if a storm isn't modeled to hit every few days.  

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I agree pattern is becoming main stay progressive, GFS does best in this pattern as its bias is progressive.  However that doesn't mean we don't have to watch every single disturbance closely as one could blow up into a big one.

Yes. We have the cold coming. Could be quiet but sometimes there is a pleasant surprise in this kind of pattern......Honestly I would be happy with a few inches of snow and cold. But I will always accept more. 

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Models are not 100% so we need to watch these disturbances closely, I would love another Jan 25 2000 storm, not a complete replica just something similar where the models are clueless until 12 hours out then they catch on and we get the monster, lol won't happen nowadays.

 

its gotten better but its still far from, and will never be, a perfect science.

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Aside from the possible inverted trough this weekend, I don't really feel the next seven days have much of a shot at the moment.

 

Dreamers gonna dream. 

 

I agree with Eric and with you.   As it stands TODAY...and that can change in future model runs the next week or so looks mainly dry.  Hopefully late January it turns back on.  Yawn in the meantime.

Heavy, heavy fog right now.

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Right now any clipper can turn into a monster with the right ingredients, this is an exciting pattern given the potential upside with one of these clippers.  Also NAM at 45 hours as a major storm developing, SREFs are down to near 1000mb, while at 84 hours the SREFs are at 992mb over New England.

where?

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