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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Yeah I think it's fun if it's like record cold for a couple days, but watching blue sky and roads coated white only from salt can get frustrating after like 5 days straight of starting your car 20 minutes before you actually have to go anywhere, lol.

God I hate the GGEM so much. Shoveled 4 feet of GGEM and ECM snow this year. Maybe it's the progressive pattern and works better with the GFS scheme, but I've been trusting the GFS more and more lately.

 

 

GFS did well in the late January pattern last year when things were quite progressive. GFS is a progressive model so when the pattern is progressive it works into its biases well. But as soon as the pattern amplified a bit, it completely vomited all over itself in the February blizzard.

 

I do not share the same fears as some for going the rest of January snowless. The most similar patterns historically have been pretty snowy.

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Well you had a snowstorm in the forecast on air this morning.

I don't think this should be dismissed as a miss. It has ensemble support

Are you talking about next week's threat? I certainly wouldn't lose hope on that, especially southern and eastern sections. I think that one has legs early next week, at least for a light snowfall.

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GFS did well in the late January pattern last year when things were quite progressive. GFS is a progressive model so when the pattern is progressive it works into its biases well. But as soon as the pattern amplified a bit, it completely vomited all over itself in the February blizzard.

 

I do not share the same fears as some for going the rest of January snowless. The most similar patterns historically have been pretty snowy.

I share your view on the rest of January. Just feels good to me and I like our chances based on history and what we are seeing evolve so far....

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Are you talking about next week's threat? I certainly wouldn't lose hope on that, especially southern and eastern sections. I think that one has legs early next week, at least for a light snowfall.

Yeah . 1 euro OTS run and some mets and weenies calling cold and dry with no snow next week. That one is still a high threat
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Yeah . 1 euro OTS run and some mets and weenies calling cold and dry with no snow next week. That one is still a high threat

 

It's still a threat... not sure what you're referring to. No one said it wasn't a threat. I think there's also a fair chance it does head OTS just like the Euro, GFS, and many of the ensemble members show. 

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GFS did well in the late January pattern last year when things were quite progressive. GFS is a progressive model so when the pattern is progressive it works into its biases well. But as soon as the pattern amplified a bit, it completely vomited all over itself in the February blizzard.

I do not share the same fears as some for going the rest of January snowless. The most similar patterns historically have been pretty snowy.

Yeah as long as it's progressive, I see no reason to dismiss the GFS while the ECM and GGEM keep trying to spin up bombs every once in a while in the mid-range.

You've got a good outlook...and look at it more scientifically. You know the composite mean pattern and what that produced for SNE, so ride with that instead of living and dying with each operational run. If it doesn't produce snow, that would be the exception more than the rule given past similar patterns.

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Yeah . 1 euro OTS run and some mets and weenies calling cold and dry with no snow next week. That one is still a high threat

Well again, as is forgotten a lot...most here just comment on the model runs as they come out. It doesn't necessarily mean anything more than that. If models come out dry, naturally that will be discussed. If the runs come out with snowstorms, we also discuss that too.

I think it's fairly natural to talk about what the latest data is.

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Well again, as is forgotten a lot...most here just comment on the model runs as they come out. It doesn't necessarily mean anything more than that. If models come out dry, naturally that will be discussed. If the runs come out with snowstorms, we also discuss that too.

I think it's fairly natural to talk about what the latest data is.

 

I see no reason to panic as we've told you and others. It will produce. High amplitude ridge out west combined with a slowly shifting PV will allow chances for snow. Your fun starts this weekend.

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Guys, just stating what the model shows, it's not meant to be a forecast. I think the threat needs to be watched and it is possible it gets pushed back too because of s/w timing.

If a snowstorm was modeled, it would be ok to discuss verbatim, as well as accept it as gospel.

Still a threat, verbatim models are dry. That is all.

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Will never forget being so far below zero with such strong NW winds in Jan 04. Didn't need radiational cooling with snowpack much that month for impressive low temps.

I got lucky with a 23 inch month, the winds were certainly an added feature to the temps, brutal at times. Hope we see more of the same.

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-40C 850s in MN near the end of the Euro run. :lol:

 

 

They haven't seen that since they broke the all time state record in Feb 1996.

 

 

I thought the arctic outbreak earlier this month was impressive...this one would be at least as impressive and even more in some areas.

 

Multiple once in 10-20 year cold blasts in the same month?

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I thought the arctic outbreak earlier this month was impressive...this one would be at least as impressive and even more in some areas.

 

Multiple once in 10-20 year cold blasts in the same month?

 

 

It happened in 1994...like 3 days apart. :lol:

 

 

This would have longevity in the overall cold (surrounding the core of it) and probably a good pattern for a reload. I have been stating in this thread for a while that the pattern looked ripe for multiple arctic outbreaks..and still does of course. The arctic cold signal has been pretty overwhelming on the ensemble data (you can't just look at the mean 850 temps...you want to look at 5H heights). It was textbook pattern for major arctic outbreak.

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