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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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GYX/PWM Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO

1 ‐31.7 2004 1 16 12 74389

2 ‐31.3 1981 1 5 0 72606

3 ‐31 1982 1 18 0 7260

4 ‐29.8 1994 1 19 12 72606

5 ‐29.7 2004 1 16 0 74389

6 ‐29.5 2004 1 14 12 74389

GYX/PWM Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO

1 ‐30.7 1966 2 21 12 72606

2 ‐29.2 1995 2 7 0 74389

3 ‐28.8 1968 2 21 12 72606

4 ‐28.1 2003 2 14 12 74389

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Yeah it would be rare for them to not get something in this pattern. The analog dates were snowy for them too. But there is a fairly reasonable chance (at least in terms of medium range probs) that SNE gets something on the 22nd and they get skunked....I'm sure the complaining would reach to a fever pitch up there if that happened before things turn for the better.

I've turned the corner...I fully expect what you said to happen. It's been brutal but we've hit bottom and are on the way up. I think SNE has the best chances over the next 10 days or so, but if we can get the cold to relax, it should come back this way.

I know you guys always say cold winters are snowy on the composites up here but these arctic intrusions and the storm track chances really show me why Ginx and Jerry love the deep cold up here. We go -20F and they snow at 15F. If we are snowing at 15F, they are usually worrying about p-type.

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I think eventually it has the potential to have a semi-SWFE type look as things retro a bit. But yeah, I think next week may have more of a cstl risk and we'll see the VT peeps head for the granite massif of Mansfield.

 

you take it for granite, and they're full of schist...  bad geology joke.

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I've turned the corner...I fully expect what you said to happen. It's been brutal but we've hit bottom and are on the way up. I think SNE has the best chances over the next 10 days or so, but if we can get the cold to relax, it should come back this way.

I know you guys always say cold winters are snowy on the composites up here but these arctic intrusions and the storm track chances really show me why Ginx and Jerry love the deep cold up here. We go -20F and they snow at 15F. If we are snowing at 15F, they are usually worrying about p-type.

 

 

You'll prob be in good spirits sooner anyway...the arctic front and southern edge of the associated clipper will probably make it dump there on the upslope spots for several hours on Sunday and you'll quickly forget the recent garbage. The non-upslope spots may have to wait longer for more meaningful snows...but it will come.

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I think eventually it has the potential to have a semi-SWFE type look as things retro a bit. But yeah, I think next week may have more of a cstl risk and we'll see the VT peeps head for the granite massif of Mansfield.

 

 

you take it for granite, and they're full of schist...  bad geology joke.

Meh, I don't need to head for the granite massif of Mansfield.  I've got one of the deepest granite quarrys in the world just up the street.  This is the hole that Jayhawk needs to gif the VT crew jumping into.

 

post-363-0-33454000-1389884841_thumb.jpg

 

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Smiling at the cold air next week. We will get there.... Yes I am very new to the board but I have been following since 2010 .Good Morning to all you good folks. Impressive fog late last night around these parts. Visib. was as low as I have seen it in an advisory for some time.Feeling positive about the weeks ahead for some more typical winter wx  :)

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While the GFS is coldest, the GGEM is so amped up that Bar Harbor, ME is looking at a 960mb low overhead and New England is initially warm before changing to wind driven snow, this is a sign that the most amped model is in fact amped up, while the least amped model is the GFS is naturally progressive in these patterns.  I think EURO comes further west and stronger with the 12z run.

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While the GFS is coldest, the GGEM is so amped up that Bar Harbor, ME is looking at a 960mb low overhead and New England is initially warm before changing to wind driven snow, this is a sign that the most amped model is in fact amped up, while the least amped model is the GFS is naturally progressive in these patterns.  I think EURO comes further west and stronger with the 12z run.

which threat is that the 22nd/23rd deal?

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While the GFS is coldest, the GGEM is so amped up that Bar Harbor, ME is looking at a 960mb low overhead and New England is initially warm before changing to wind driven snow, this is a sign that the most amped model is in fact amped up, while the least amped model is the GFS is naturally progressive in these patterns.  I think EURO comes further west and stronger with the 12z run.

 

 

Cape Cod, MA is 95% rain on the GGEM.

 

James, I love you son but your weenieism needs a governor.

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That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures.

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That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures.

Keep talking dirty to me...

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That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures.

There are going be some x rated positive feedbacks all over keyboards.

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That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures.

 

La epic

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The Canadian reminds me of March 8, 2005 except it occurs in January. That would be epic...I'd root for it even if it starts as rain initially.

 

 

The reality is that the model is likely not even close to correct. :lol:

 

Over-amplifies literally every single trough that digs from the Plains to SE. Every time, I swear.

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