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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I don't think what bastardi does is right. However, it's tough to be mad at him. He's a business man, he knows what sells. He knows if he posts snow maps for a storm 10 days away that shows 3 feet for your backyard, you'll be on the edge of your seat anticipating all of his updates. He knows how to hook the weenies, he's an excellent marketer of his product and service

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The previous Arctic Outbreak did 5 Billion dollars of damage.

 

Fuzzy math....someone, somewhere can justify the losses through all sorts of nonsense.  It's like slant stickers being used to verify high forecasts.

 

A hurricane destroys property permanently.  A cold snap may delay travel and commerce but it picks right back up after the cold moves on. 

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I don't think what bastardi does is right. However, it's tough to be mad at him. He's a business man, he knows what sells. He knows if he posts snow maps for a storm 10 days away that shows 3 feet for your backyard, you'll be on the edge of your seat anticipating all of his updates. He knows how to hook the weenies, he's an excellent marketer of his product and service

well the same could be said for Madonna lol .....as far as knowing what sells and manipulating the media to its advantage and then shrewdly raking in the cash
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The Climate Prediction Center has updated their Day 8-14 Outlook...looks like some colder air may return across our Region to end the month of January.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2014

TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE

SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE CONUS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE

MONTH. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH

A MEAN RIDGE FORECAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN

ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE

EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS THAT

THE SOURCE REGION FOR POST-FRONTAL AIR MASSES WILL BE GROWING COLDER AS

CROSS-POLAR FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES MAY BE

TOO CONSERVATIVE AND GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL ARE LIKELY GOING TO

EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. LATE IN THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR

MASSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL, WHERE

PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED FROM

YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.

TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE MAJOR HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS (WEST COAST, EASTERN

CONUS, NORTH ATLANTIC) SUGGEST THE FORECAST WAVE PATTERN MAY CONTAIN

WAVELENGTHS THAT ARE TOO LARGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN.

THIS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, WHERE

SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THOUGH IT'S

UNCERTAIN WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY AMPLIFICATION

WOULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS; NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS

FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A RESULT. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED

FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-DRY NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES

ENTERING THE MEAN TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SNOWFALL, TO NEW ENGLAND,

WHERE ANY STORM TRACKS ARE FAVORED TO CONVERGE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S

OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z

GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON

DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40

PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE

TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

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You need to dig deeper than that Brian, he brings a depth to model analysis using some exceptional tools unavailable anywhere else. You have missed the mark on this one. Real science stuff not clown maps.Ask our Ryan

Yes, but the only map most see is that stupid weenie snowfall map that seems to take the location of the 32F isotherm at the end of the run, and convert all precip before it to snow, at like a 15:1 ratio. Ludicrous is a word that comes to mind when thinking about how much attention goes to those snow maps.

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Fuzzy math....someone, somewhere can justify the losses through all sorts of nonsense.  It's like slant stickers being used to verify high forecasts.

 

A hurricane destroys property permanently.  A cold snap may delay travel and commerce but it picks right back up after the cold moves on. 

i like your comment wrt to forecasters and the markets/traders/inside info

 

someone with  Media Face time probably is rolling the dice and cashing in

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Yes, but the only map most see is that stupid weenie snowfall map that seems to take the location of the 32F isotherm at the end of the run, and convert all precip before it to snow, at like a 15:1 ratio. Ludicrous is a word that comes to mind when thinking about how much attention goes to those snow maps.

your scope is obviously limited to this Site, take my word for it, his ability to take all kinds of data, not just models FYI, and put out precise understandable maps,graphs,data sheets is fantastic.
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You need to dig deeper than that Brian, he brings a depth to model analysis using some exceptional tools unavailable anywhere else. You have missed the mark on this one. Real science stuff not clown maps.Ask our Ryan

Missed the mark? What did I say that was wrong? They have great looking graphics and the snow maps are food for the weenies. They have a lot of great other stuff too.

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http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397

Deep Freeze Puts $5 Billion chill on economy

 

Spin. Any scapegoat is a good scapegoat when it comes to justifying a blip in the economy.

 

How many millions will be lost to winter sports revenue in the NE the past two weeks.

How about dollars lost to car repairs for suspensions damaged by potholes from this horrific rain, freeze, thaw, repeat cycle we've been in?  That is money out of consumers pockets.

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Spin. Any scapegoat is a good scapegoat when it comes to justifying a blip in the economy.

 

How many millions will be lost to winter sports revenue in the NE the past two weeks.

How about dollars lost to car repairs for suspensions damaged by potholes from this horrific rain, freeze, thaw, repeat cycle we've been in?  That is money out of consumers pockets.

 

It's an excuse for the bad jobs numbers even though they're not from the same time period.  IE, if January is weak they'll be able to blame it on the weather when the numbers are limp in next months report.

 

I don't want to minimize what's going to happen in a week or so and into February.  It's going to be cold, and sustained.  But we'll live.

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dude he is calling for hundreds of deaths and billion dollar disaster similar to a major hurricane, a little over the top?

 

This is what I chastise him for. "The winter equal of a major hurricane hit"

 

That is a very thinly veiled attempt to bring the term hurricane into the discussion, because he knows the media will run wild with it. Just like the "Arctic hurricane" polar vortex became such a trendy thing to say.

 

Will the country endure higher costs and should people prepare? Yes. But why can't we just tell them that? Why does it have to come with this trumped up hurricane BS?

 

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Pretty graphics + clown algorithms = social media dream

 

Definitely an element of truth there. I think the graphics are great, but they are clearly geared towards aesthetics over functionality.

 

We use it for the high res Euro and ensembles, which we don't otherwise have access to. But other than that I prefer to overlay multiple fields from multiple levels on my screen. Some of their wind graphics don't even include direction. I know I can infer the direction from the height field, but not everyone who pays for it can. And a lot of the transitions are so gradual it's tough to tell what the value is for a given area. If I remember correctly, I do like the QPF color curve because there are hard breaks at important values (i.e. 0.10", 0.25", 0.50", etc).

 

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This is what I chastise him for. "The winter equal of a major hurricane hit"

 

That is a very thinly veiled attempt to bring the term hurricane into the discussion, because he knows the media will run wild with it. Just like the "Arctic hurricane" polar vortex became such a trendy thing to say.

 

Will the country endure higher costs and should people prepare? Yes. But why can't we just tell them that? Why does it have to come with this trumped up hurricane BS?

 

 

 

Media hype.

 

The polar vortex stuff was beyond amusing...its as if it was brand new and never happened before. I had to tell people "everytime we get a big arctic cold shot, the polar vortex is usually involved, it is not a new phenomenon. The cold in January 2004, 1996, and 1994 were all with the PV"...and they look at me in amazement wondering why they never heard of it previously. :lol:

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Media hype.

 

The polar vortex stuff was beyond amusing...its as if it was brand new and never happened before. I had to tell people "everytime we get a big arctic cold shot, the polar vortex is usually involved, it is not a new phenomenon. The cold in January 2004, 1996, and 1994 were all with the PV"...and they look at me in amazement wondering why they never heard of it previously. :lol:

 

Here I am sitting in Charlotte Amalie and watching the Today Show listening to Roker tell us the polar vortex isn't made up, bring out his textbook. It was surreal.

 

I mean why is he even bothering to argue over whether it's real or not? He doesn't tell people about QG theory, but it still exists.

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Media hype.

 

The polar vortex stuff was beyond amusing...its as if it was brand new and never happened before. I had to tell people "everytime we get a big arctic cold shot, the polar vortex is usually involved, it is not a new phenomenon. The cold in January 2004, 1996, and 1994 were all with the PV"...and they look at me in amazement wondering why they never heard of it previously. :lol:

Couldn't agree more. Spot on.

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Here I am sitting in Charlotte Amalie and watching the Today Show listening to Roker tell us the polar vortex isn't made up, bring out his textbook. It was surreal.

 

I mean why is he even bothering to argue over whether it's real or not? He doesn't tell people about QG theory, but it still exists.

TWC should be dropped by all cable providers too. I have a new name for PV 2 in honor of JB , Deathtex
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