TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I don't think what bastardi does is right. However, it's tough to be mad at him. He's a business man, he knows what sells. He knows if he posts snow maps for a storm 10 days away that shows 3 feet for your backyard, you'll be on the edge of your seat anticipating all of his updates. He knows how to hook the weenies, he's an excellent marketer of his product and service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The previous Arctic Outbreak did 5 Billion dollars of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Pretty graphics + clown algorithms = social media dreamYou need to dig deeper than that Brian, he brings a depth to model analysis using some exceptional tools unavailable anywhere else. You have missed the mark on this one. Real science stuff not clown maps.Ask our Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The previous Arctic Outbreak did 5 Billion dollars of damage.link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The previous Arctic Outbreak did 5 Billion dollars of damage. Fuzzy math....someone, somewhere can justify the losses through all sorts of nonsense. It's like slant stickers being used to verify high forecasts. A hurricane destroys property permanently. A cold snap may delay travel and commerce but it picks right back up after the cold moves on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I don't think what bastardi does is right. However, it's tough to be mad at him. He's a business man, he knows what sells. He knows if he posts snow maps for a storm 10 days away that shows 3 feet for your backyard, you'll be on the edge of your seat anticipating all of his updates. He knows how to hook the weenies, he's an excellent marketer of his product and servicewell the same could be said for Madonna lol .....as far as knowing what sells and manipulating the media to its advantage and then shrewdly raking in the cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The Climate Prediction Center has updated their Day 8-14 Outlook...looks like some colder air may return across our Region to end the month of January. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2014 TODAY'S WEEK-2 OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GROWING POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE CONUS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND REVEALS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A MEAN RIDGE FORECAST JUST OFF THE WEST COAST EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST HEIGHT PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTS THAT THE SOURCE REGION FOR POST-FRONTAL AIR MASSES WILL BE GROWING COLDER AS CROSS-POLAR FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE AND GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL ARE LIKELY GOING TO EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. LATE IN THE PERIOD, COLDER AIR MASSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS WELL, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DRASTICALLY REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK. TELECONNECTIONS UPON THE MAJOR HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERS (WEST COAST, EASTERN CONUS, NORTH ATLANTIC) SUGGEST THE FORECAST WAVE PATTERN MAY CONTAIN WAVELENGTHS THAT ARE TOO LARGE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. THIS INCREASES UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, WHERE SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THOUGH IT'S UNCERTAIN WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT ANY AMPLIFICATION WOULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS; NEAR-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A RESULT. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-DRY NORTHERN PLAINS, WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ENTERING THE MEAN TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SNOWFALL, TO NEW ENGLAND, WHERE ANY STORM TRACKS ARE FAVORED TO CONVERGE. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You need to dig deeper than that Brian, he brings a depth to model analysis using some exceptional tools unavailable anywhere else. You have missed the mark on this one. Real science stuff not clown maps.Ask our Ryan Yes, but the only map most see is that stupid weenie snowfall map that seems to take the location of the 32F isotherm at the end of the run, and convert all precip before it to snow, at like a 15:1 ratio. Ludicrous is a word that comes to mind when thinking about how much attention goes to those snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Fuzzy math....someone, somewhere can justify the losses through all sorts of nonsense. It's like slant stickers being used to verify high forecasts. A hurricane destroys property permanently. A cold snap may delay travel and commerce but it picks right back up after the cold moves on. i like your comment wrt to forecasters and the markets/traders/inside info someone with Media Face time probably is rolling the dice and cashing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Maue needs to fix that snow map because it's a joke throughout the community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 PV part II will be so over the top, people will beg for a "how to be a mom" reality tv show starring Kim K and her NW baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yes, but the only map most see is that stupid weenie snowfall map that seems to take the location of the 32F isotherm at the end of the run, and convert all precip before it to snow, at like a 15:1 ratio. Ludicrous is a word that comes to mind when thinking about how much attention goes to those snow maps.your scope is obviously limited to this Site, take my word for it, his ability to take all kinds of data, not just models FYI, and put out precise understandable maps,graphs,data sheets is fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 You need to dig deeper than that Brian, he brings a depth to model analysis using some exceptional tools unavailable anywhere else. You have missed the mark on this one. Real science stuff not clown maps.Ask our Ryan Missed the mark? What did I say that was wrong? They have great looking graphics and the snow maps are food for the weenies. They have a lot of great other stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Maue needs to fix that snow map because it's a joke throughout the community. Who is Maue? Where is this joke of a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Missed the mark? What did I say that was wrong? They have great looking graphics and the snow maps are food for the weenies. They have a lot of great other stuff too.well this post is on the mark, the last one was dismissive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 well this post is on the mark, the last one was dismissive. It was more directed at the weenie snow maps and the frenzy they cause on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Earthlight nailed it, one of his best posts ever. So awesome to watch these guys who were just kids when we started this journey step up. Him Sammy and many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 link? http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397 Deep Freeze Puts $5 Billion chill on economy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397 Deep Freeze Puts $5 Billion chill on economy Spin. Any scapegoat is a good scapegoat when it comes to justifying a blip in the economy. How many millions will be lost to winter sports revenue in the NE the past two weeks. How about dollars lost to car repairs for suspensions damaged by potholes from this horrific rain, freeze, thaw, repeat cycle we've been in? That is money out of consumers pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397 Deep Freeze Puts $5 Billion chill on economy Meh. There's more too it than cold weather IMO. Freak weather and extreme conditions happen during all seasons, it's reality. I think that story is kind of missing the mark. There are so many subsidiary factors in the economy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 http://www.cnbc.com/id/101319397 Deep Freeze Puts $5 Billion chill on economy could being the key words in that article. Totally speculation, and it also says it could be offset by other businesses profits, and made up in the next quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Spin. Any scapegoat is a good scapegoat when it comes to justifying a blip in the economy. How many millions will be lost to winter sports revenue in the NE the past two weeks. How about dollars lost to car repairs for suspensions damaged by potholes from this horrific rain, freeze, thaw, repeat cycle we've been in? That is money out of consumers pockets. It's an excuse for the bad jobs numbers even though they're not from the same time period. IE, if January is weak they'll be able to blame it on the weather when the numbers are limp in next months report. I don't want to minimize what's going to happen in a week or so and into February. It's going to be cold, and sustained. But we'll live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 dude he is calling for hundreds of deaths and billion dollar disaster similar to a major hurricane, a little over the top? This is what I chastise him for. "The winter equal of a major hurricane hit" That is a very thinly veiled attempt to bring the term hurricane into the discussion, because he knows the media will run wild with it. Just like the "Arctic hurricane" polar vortex became such a trendy thing to say. Will the country endure higher costs and should people prepare? Yes. But why can't we just tell them that? Why does it have to come with this trumped up hurricane BS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Pretty graphics + clown algorithms = social media dream Definitely an element of truth there. I think the graphics are great, but they are clearly geared towards aesthetics over functionality. We use it for the high res Euro and ensembles, which we don't otherwise have access to. But other than that I prefer to overlay multiple fields from multiple levels on my screen. Some of their wind graphics don't even include direction. I know I can infer the direction from the height field, but not everyone who pays for it can. And a lot of the transitions are so gradual it's tough to tell what the value is for a given area. If I remember correctly, I do like the QPF color curve because there are hard breaks at important values (i.e. 0.10", 0.25", 0.50", etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The 0Z Op GFS looked pretty desolate for SNE even through 1/25. Cold sure, but dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 This is what I chastise him for. "The winter equal of a major hurricane hit" That is a very thinly veiled attempt to bring the term hurricane into the discussion, because he knows the media will run wild with it. Just like the "Arctic hurricane" polar vortex became such a trendy thing to say. Will the country endure higher costs and should people prepare? Yes. But why can't we just tell them that? Why does it have to come with this trumped up hurricane BS? Media hype. The polar vortex stuff was beyond amusing...its as if it was brand new and never happened before. I had to tell people "everytime we get a big arctic cold shot, the polar vortex is usually involved, it is not a new phenomenon. The cold in January 2004, 1996, and 1994 were all with the PV"...and they look at me in amazement wondering why they never heard of it previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Media hype. The polar vortex stuff was beyond amusing...its as if it was brand new and never happened before. I had to tell people "everytime we get a big arctic cold shot, the polar vortex is usually involved, it is not a new phenomenon. The cold in January 2004, 1996, and 1994 were all with the PV"...and they look at me in amazement wondering why they never heard of it previously. Here I am sitting in Charlotte Amalie and watching the Today Show listening to Roker tell us the polar vortex isn't made up, bring out his textbook. It was surreal. I mean why is he even bothering to argue over whether it's real or not? He doesn't tell people about QG theory, but it still exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Knock knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Media hype. The polar vortex stuff was beyond amusing...its as if it was brand new and never happened before. I had to tell people "everytime we get a big arctic cold shot, the polar vortex is usually involved, it is not a new phenomenon. The cold in January 2004, 1996, and 1994 were all with the PV"...and they look at me in amazement wondering why they never heard of it previously. Couldn't agree more. Spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Here I am sitting in Charlotte Amalie and watching the Today Show listening to Roker tell us the polar vortex isn't made up, bring out his textbook. It was surreal. I mean why is he even bothering to argue over whether it's real or not? He doesn't tell people about QG theory, but it still exists. TWC should be dropped by all cable providers too. I have a new name for PV 2 in honor of JB , Deathtex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.