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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I'll admit. I'm a bet leery. Feeling pretty good but stomach is bubbly

 

Well that's generally the right approach with long range progs... feel good about it but even good patterns aren't a slam dunk for big snows.  It definitely will be cold though, especially between the threats.  Its hard to be "all-in" on a pattern progged out there in the 7-10+ day range.

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You're never going to get specifics down on op runs, and how many times have we seen SWFE shown as cutters after truncation.  Like I said, we are still prone to cutters, but obviously with the cold...you'll probably have a lot of clippers and SWFE type deals. Just too early to nail specifics down. I would not worry.

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Yes I have a minor in atmospheric science, did you read WSI January forecast?

It's important to note that the forecast in question was issued on 12/19. At that time, the teleconnection charts were showing a positive to strongly positive AO and the 500 mb height anomalies were no more encouraging. Given the data at the time, I don't think one can argue that it was not reasonable. As new data becomes available, forecasts can and do change (as they should with better data).

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It's important to note that the forecast in question was issued on 12/19. At that time, the teleconnection charts were showing a positive to strongly positive AO and the 500 mb height anomalies were no more encouraging. Given the data at the time, I don't think one can argue that it was not reasonable. As new data becomes available, forecasts can and do change (as they should with better data).

 

LOL it's ok. A +PNA in combo with an EPO breakdown was the possibility if I remembered correctly. So a combo of two different features at different times which would lend to that averaged outlook. Not a furnace, but a large swath of possible milder than normal weather. Clearly it appears at least the Plains across to the northeast probably will not be very mild on average in January unless something drastic happens.

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LOL it's ok. A +PNA in combo with an EPO breakdown was the possibility if I remembered correctly. So a combo of two different features at different times which would lend to that averaged outlook. Not a furnace, but a large swath of possible milder than normal weather. Clearly it appears at least the Plains across to the northeast probably will not be very mild on average in January unless something drastic happens.

Here is the graphic for those who didnt see and yes it was issued on 12/19.

 

33vf5hx.jpg

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