Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I'll admit. I'm a bet leery. Feeling pretty good but stomach is bubblyEuro is your Zantac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I'll admit. I'm a bet leery. Feeling pretty good but stomach is bubbly Well that's generally the right approach with long range progs... feel good about it but even good patterns aren't a slam dunk for big snows. It definitely will be cold though, especially between the threats. Its hard to be "all-in" on a pattern progged out there in the 7-10+ day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 You're never going to get specifics down on op runs, and how many times have we seen SWFE shown as cutters after truncation. Like I said, we are still prone to cutters, but obviously with the cold...you'll probably have a lot of clippers and SWFE type deals. Just too early to nail specifics down. I would not worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Euro ensembles are a nice gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Euro ensembles are a nice gift. I was thinking you meant Sunday and all I see is every 24 hours and that appears to be a rainer. But the longer range looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I was thinking you meant Sunday and all I see is every 24 hours and that appears to be a rainer. But the longer range looks awesome. Yes I meant long range. But the Sunday storm looks interesting for nrn MA and up through NNE. 850 0C line rides the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 You Could envision that Sunday deal being like a 31-32 marginal icing event for areas south of 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 You Could envision that Sunday deal being like a 31-32 marginal icing event for areas south of 850 Well the problem is there is zero cold preceding this. To me, this was more a rain to snow deal for areas that do not start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Cpc forecast kills the negative AO the recent trends are worrisome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Cpc forecast kills the negative AO the recent trends are worrisome This is why I could give two sh*ts about a stupid text output. Just look at the anomalies. I haven't seen a change and if anything remains negaitve on the euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 This is why I could give two sh*ts about a stupid text output. Just look at the anomalies. I haven't seen a change and if anything remains negaitve on the euro ensembles. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Supports his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 And seriously, the insanely positive AO has been decent winter for us...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Snowy kickoff of 2014 on the 18z gfs. Light snow and cold. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml Don't take this the wrong way, but do you know how to read 500mb anomaly charts? It's an honest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Don't take this the wrong way, but do you know how to read 500mb anomaly charts? It's an honest question.Yes I have a minor in atmospheric science, did you read WSI January forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Yes I have a minor in atmospheric science, did you read WSI January forecast? Yes I know the people who produced it. That likely will be revised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 My point is those CPC graphs of AO and NAO to me aren't very telling. I just want to see where the anomalies are. Recall Feb 2012 had a big -AO but the cold was all in Europe and we still furnaced. So, IMHO looking at 500mb anomaly charts are much more telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Well the problem is there is zero cold preceding this. To me, this was more a rain to snow deal for areas that do not start as snow. Yeah it seems like a set up that would need to cool from the top down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Lol...coastal front telling scooter about wsi...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Yes I have a minor in atmospheric science, did you read WSI January forecast? It's important to note that the forecast in question was issued on 12/19. At that time, the teleconnection charts were showing a positive to strongly positive AO and the 500 mb height anomalies were no more encouraging. Given the data at the time, I don't think one can argue that it was not reasonable. As new data becomes available, forecasts can and do change (as they should with better data). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 It's important to note that the forecast in question was issued on 12/19. At that time, the teleconnection charts were showing a positive to strongly positive AO and the 500 mb height anomalies were no more encouraging. Given the data at the time, I don't think one can argue that it was not reasonable. As new data becomes available, forecasts can and do change (as they should with better data). LOL it's ok. A +PNA in combo with an EPO breakdown was the possibility if I remembered correctly. So a combo of two different features at different times which would lend to that averaged outlook. Not a furnace, but a large swath of possible milder than normal weather. Clearly it appears at least the Plains across to the northeast probably will not be very mild on average in January unless something drastic happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I remember Scooter posting about the difference in opinion in his WSI office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I remember Scooter posting about the difference in opinion in his WSI office. Ditto...he did say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coastalfront Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 LOL it's ok. A +PNA in combo with an EPO breakdown was the possibility if I remembered correctly. So a combo of two different features at different times which would lend to that averaged outlook. Not a furnace, but a large swath of possible milder than normal weather. Clearly it appears at least the Plains across to the northeast probably will not be very mild on average in January unless something drastic happens. Here is the graphic for those who didnt see and yes it was issued on 12/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Here is the graphic for those who didnt see and yes it was issued on 12/19. Looks like the long range portion of the latest GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 When I need a good laugh I look at that. Then if it wasn't funny enough I check accuweather. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 All systems go. NYE/NYD rings in cold and white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 All systems go. NYE/NYD rings in cold and white And any d10 angst about the euro op is trumped by the ensembles which look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Jan 2009 might be a good analog for this pattern if the PNA stays more positive. Jan '94 was more neutral PNA to slightly neg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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