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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I think what is lost by many of the downers and Leonites is that this pattern evolved pretty much exactly as some expected.  The only thing that changed was we went from few/several day cold shots followed by a day or two of warmth to protracted cold shots and equally protracted warm shots mixed in.  Now after 10-17 days of mostly more mild weather we're about to dump back into a predominantly cold pattern.

 

This is winter 2013-14, it won't be wall to wall cold or any of that crap, nor will be end to end warmth.  It will continue to oscillate and it won't be a great snow pack year if you have a fetish of 30 days of cover etc.

 

Meanwhile enjoy todays 40 to spot 50 across almost all of New England.  Torch on!

17 days of mild wx? We've had 4-5

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I love at hr312, with no blocking in the Atlantic, surface low tracks north of New England, and it's all warm conveyor belt precip running over the cold front. And still it's all snow for most people. Just imbedded in the arctic air.

 

Do us a favor and spin around enough to create a low booting out of OK.

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lol seriously, that's what you need. A nice STJ connection, boom. Especially once ridging bridges across Greenland and the Baffin Island in early February

 

I'm hoping we see disturbances push out of the Plains later in the month. I think that's possible with lowering heights in the west.

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Euro is answering the weenies at hr 150.

 

Not sure I buy it though... It's failed now on 2 consecutive coastals for that time range, mainly because its (you know this...) native meridional bias beyond ~D4.5 tends to compensate for fast flow anomaly...then conveniently slowing things down enough for cyclogen...

 

blah blah blah... it may not be that deep in the OV in the first place, or ... it may be, but there may still be wave-interference to contend with.  Pick your cliche 

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Not sure I buy it though... It's failed now on 2 consecutive coastals for that time range, mainly because its (you know this...) native meridional bias beyond ~D4.5 tends to compensate for fast flow anomaly...then conveniently slowing things down enough for cyclogen...

 

blah blah blah... it may not be that deep in the OV in the first place, or ... it may be, but there may still be wave-interference to contend with.  Pick your cliche 

 

Yep, Idk if it is just me, but it seems the EURO has been doing this a LOT more lately. I've honestly been using the GFS more for specifics. 

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I posted this in the other thread by accident:

 

If we were to get a larger type storm in this pattern (at least initially), it will be in the form of a clipper amplifying into a Miller B.

 

Perhaps later on near the very end of the month, we could see a better chance at a larger scale system out of the plains as the PNA ridge relaxes just a bit.

 

 

But those steep amplifying PNA ridges are what you look for when you are trying to get a Manitoba Mauler type Miller B.

 

 

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This year or any year isn't really different. Model QPF is one of the worst skilled parameters. This is why you hear some of us harp on stuff like 700mb lows and being in a good area for frontogenesis while not really having significant QPF. Of course those areas end up getting hit the hardest. This example bouls down to snow physics and models not hendling mesoscale aspects like banding.....but imagine how bad it will be when you are beyond 10 days out?

Thanks Scott

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