CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 A little light snow on the GFS for Sunday and something brewing next week. That should make model huggers happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 A little light snow on the GFS for Sunday and something brewing next week. That should make model huggers happy. What about the QPF Queens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 What about the QPF Queens? They may not be. I know it sux..but hang in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 They may not be. I know it sux..but hang in there. I get the joke, but why (this year it seems) does qpf on models not work out pretty often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I get the joke, but why (this year it seems) does qpf on models not work out pretty often? This year or any year isn't really different. Model QPF is one of the worst skilled parameters. This is why you hear some of us harp on stuff like 700mb lows and being in a good area for frontogenesis while not really having significant QPF. Of course those areas end up getting hit the hardest. This example bouls down to snow physics and models not hendling mesoscale aspects like banding.....but imagine how bad it will be when you are beyond 10 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yeah it'll happen. I don't doubt that. I just don't know if I see it in the next couple weeks. You think there's any chance of that trough axis retrograding west a bit through time? I still think this looks great for you guys right now with the trough position...Ginxy to BOS miller B threats with the current upper air progs. Would be nice to get any blocking too...obviously the concern if the trough goes west a bit is cutters. But if there was any semblance of a block we could work with a further west axis. At least in the upcoming clipper pattern, there should be plentiful NW flow so there should be some upslope! I have certainly seen that irony this season, trust me I've thought of that. The fear of suppression with blocking like 2009-2010...but now this season will be the fear. It's always short term memories. The bonus of the highly blocked years were those retrograding ocean storms though that delivered some sweet upslope IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Models starting to show how this produces. I wish I had the time to revive the same qvetching every year when the GFS shows us cold and dry. Last year we had someone saying BOS may not get 10 inches right before they banked 60+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Models starting to show how this produces. I wish I had the time to revive the same qvetching every year when the GFS shows us cold and dry. Last year we had someone saying BOS may not get 10 inches right before they banked 60+. Including a system coming from the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 VT people should like this run. Just relax guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 LOL at the cold on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 LOL at the cold on this run. ridiculous cold or does the model lose it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 ridiculous cold or does the model lose it? The CONUS north of 40N and east of the Rockies is an icebox. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 GGEM doesn't show any support for the GFS clipper on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 VT people should like this run. Just relax guys. I just turned the corner...no more dwelling on the past. Let's just get it cold and take our chances. This forum has done a 180 this season, haha. Coastalwx talking us off the ledge and being the most bullish on an upcoming pattern when prior to Feb 2013 he was throwing the laptop in the Charles River. It all comes around and it'll be back up here. I'm game on for the future, no where to go but up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The CONUS north of 40N and east of the Rockies is an icebox. Wow. Guess we'll see everything icing up again for sure. Frozen Great Lakes this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 GGEM doesn't show any support for the GFS clipper on Sunday. CMC blows on general principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I just turned the corner...no more dwelling on the past. Let's just get it cold and take our chances. This forum has done a 180 this season, haha. Coastalwx talking us off the ledge and being the most bullish on an upcoming pattern when prior to Feb 2013 he was throwing the laptop in the Charles River. It all comes around and it'll be back up here. I'm game on for the future, no where to go but up. Well to be fair since my winter wx hinges more on temp than your area...I like to see it colder. So yes, I will probably show a little more enthusiasm. I'm fully aware what could happen if the flow is more NWRLY, but IMHO I think we'll see the pattern slowly emerge from Cold NW flow perhaps maybe more SWFE or clipper (miller type deals. Don't interpret what I am saying as going for an epic pattern...I just think the current hiatus comes to a big halt and so far..looks good to my eyes. Of course a -NAO will help, but that is a great Pacific and as Will mentioned...the analog years support some good winter wx. Take it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I just turned the corner...no more dwelling on the past. Let's just get it cold and take our chances.This forum has done a 180 this season, haha. Coastalwx talking us off the ledge and being the most bullish on an upcoming pattern when prior to Feb 2013 he was throwing the laptop in the Charles River.It all comes around and it'll be back up here. I'm game on for the future, no where to go but up. great song by a great band it fits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Also, look at these changes in the d4-7 timeframe on the models with every run. Now the GFS tries something for Sunday. You are going to be prone with changes in the models with a regime like this. Just keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Wow. Guess we'll see everything icing up again for sure. Frozen Great Lakes this year? They have the most ice cover since 1994. They are going to get a lot more cold in the next 2 weeks. Severe cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Just looping 500mb on the 12z GFS, there is a whole lot of vorticity constantly pouring into the base of that trough...something has to pop in there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Just looping 500mb on the 12z GFS, there is a whole lot of vorticity constantly pouring into the base of that trough...something has to pop in there somewhere. Well you also want concentrated pieces of vorticity, not just one continuous stream. It's that actual pieces or vortmaxes that cause cyclogenesis. But, yeah...usually something will pop and a truncated GFS op won't have the resolution to determine this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 great song by a great band it fits Hippies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 CMC blows on general principle. sure did blow up that 24/25th storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 When does the true cold get in here? Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Hippies laid back, relaxed, blunts,beers, frisbees, skis, surfing, life as it should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 When does the true cold get in here? Wed? Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN6m New England's next shot of arctic air is on our exclusive 10-day forecast as winter returns: http://ow.ly/i/4iqLc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN6m New England's next shot of arctic air is on our exclusive 10-day forecast as winter returns: http://ow.ly/i/4iqLc what makes a ten day exclusive rather than inclusive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 what makes a ten day exclusive rather than inclusive? I think that they try to convey a sense of originality...."our presentation is unique". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I think what is lost by many of the downers and Leonites is that this pattern evolved pretty much exactly as some expected. The only thing that changed was we went from few/several day cold shots followed by a day or two of warmth to protracted cold shots and equally protracted warm shots mixed in. Now after 10-17 days of mostly more mild weather we're about to dump back into a predominantly cold pattern. This is winter 2013-14, it won't be wall to wall cold or any of that crap, nor will be end to end warmth. It will continue to oscillate and it won't be a great snow pack year if you have a fetish of 30 days of cover etc. Meanwhile enjoy todays 40 to spot 50 across almost all of New England. Torch on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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