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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I get the joke, but why (this year it seems) does qpf on models not work out pretty often?

 

This year or any year isn't really different. Model QPF is one of the worst skilled parameters. This is why you hear some of us harp on stuff like 700mb lows and being in a good area for frontogenesis while not really having significant QPF. Of course those areas end up getting hit the hardest. This example bouls down to snow physics and models not hendling mesoscale aspects like banding.....but imagine how bad it will be when you are beyond 10 days out?

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Yeah it'll happen. I don't doubt that. I just don't know if I see it in the next couple weeks.

You think there's any chance of that trough axis retrograding west a bit through time? I still think this looks great for you guys right now with the trough position...Ginxy to BOS miller B threats with the current upper air progs.

Would be nice to get any blocking too...obviously the concern if the trough goes west a bit is cutters. But if there was any semblance of a block we could work with a further west axis.

 

At least in the upcoming clipper pattern, there should be plentiful NW flow so there should be some upslope!

 

I have certainly seen that irony this season, trust me I've thought of that. The fear of suppression with blocking like 2009-2010...but now this season will be the fear. It's always short term memories.

The bonus of the highly blocked years were those retrograding ocean storms though that delivered some sweet upslope IIRC.

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VT people should like this run. Just relax guys.

I just turned the corner...no more dwelling on the past. Let's just get it cold and take our chances.

This forum has done a 180 this season, haha. Coastalwx talking us off the ledge and being the most bullish on an upcoming pattern when prior to Feb 2013 he was throwing the laptop in the Charles River.

It all comes around and it'll be back up here. I'm game on for the future, no where to go but up.

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I just turned the corner...no more dwelling on the past. Let's just get it cold and take our chances.

This forum has done a 180 this season, haha. Coastalwx talking us off the ledge and being the most bullish on an upcoming pattern when prior to Feb 2013 he was throwing the laptop in the Charles River.

It all comes around and it'll be back up here. I'm game on for the future, no where to go but up.

 

 

Well to be fair since my winter wx hinges more on temp than your area...I like to see it colder. So yes, I will probably show a little more enthusiasm. I'm fully aware what could happen if the flow is more NWRLY, but IMHO I think we'll see the pattern slowly emerge from Cold NW flow perhaps maybe more SWFE or clipper (miller B) type deals. Don't interpret what I am saying as going for an epic pattern...I just think the current hiatus comes to a big halt and so far..looks good to my eyes. Of course a -NAO will help, but that is a great Pacific and as Will mentioned...the analog years support some good winter wx. Take it fwiw.

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I just turned the corner...no more dwelling on the past. Let's just get it cold and take our chances.

This forum has done a 180 this season, haha. Coastalwx talking us off the ledge and being the most bullish on an upcoming pattern when prior to Feb 2013 he was throwing the laptop in the Charles River.

It all comes around and it'll be back up here. I'm game on for the future, no where to go but up.

great song by a great band it fits

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Just looping 500mb on the 12z GFS, there is a whole lot of vorticity constantly pouring into the base of that trough...something has to pop in there somewhere.

 

Well you also want concentrated pieces of vorticity, not just one continuous stream. It's that actual pieces or vortmaxes that cause cyclogenesis. But, yeah...usually something will pop and a truncated GFS op won't have the resolution to determine this.

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I think what is lost by many of the downers and Leonites is that this pattern evolved pretty much exactly as some expected.  The only thing that changed was we went from few/several day cold shots followed by a day or two of warmth to protracted cold shots and equally protracted warm shots mixed in.  Now after 10-17 days of mostly more mild weather we're about to dump back into a predominantly cold pattern.

 

This is winter 2013-14, it won't be wall to wall cold or any of that crap, nor will be end to end warmth.  It will continue to oscillate and it won't be a great snow pack year if you have a fetish of 30 days of cover etc.

 

Meanwhile enjoy todays 40 to spot 50 across almost all of New England.  Torch on!

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