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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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still would be nice to shift that East a bit....

 

East? All that would do is make it even more dry and cut off any hope of any gulf or atlantic moisture.

 

What you'd like to see is ANYTHING resembling a greenland block but its just not there.

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Any analog years?

 

Here's what I got, keeping in mind that the spread among the analog years is pretty high.

 

post-869-0-30527600-1389739678_thumb.png

 

Subjectively, it looked like the best matches over North America were 2/11/91 and 2/26/70, which deviated the least over North America from the Euro ensemble mean forecast. The ridge axis is a bit farther east in the '91 analog and a bit farther west for the '70 analog.

 

post-869-0-68246500-1389740115_thumb.png

 

post-869-0-83895100-1389740096_thumb.png

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Donnie Baseball with some interesting stats, guess which year was a POS NAO, Leon just walked back in the building to tremendous applause.

"The latest EPO forecast shows the EPO reaching approximately 200 meters below normal toward the end of January. During the 1981-10 climate base period, there were 3 cases in which the EPO fell to 200 or more meters below normal in the January 20-31 period during which January had temperature anomalies similar to what has occurred so far this month: 1994, 2003, and 2010."

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I understand that, but if the gradient between the high/ trough sharpens we're talking more of a dive to the South and up the coast. To me right now, it still seems somewhat progressive.

what the models are showing is a spinning vortex in ECanada sending shot after shot of Arctic intrusions, any which could have a strong redeveloping clipper, if as the axis spins we get some STJ interjected, boom. Keep in mind models are a snap shot in time. Good times coming up, the analog lists have a bunch of snowy days in the mix.
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Just to let folks know how cold the Ens are most of us are enveloped in -15 to -25 degree 850 air from the 23rd to as far as the weenie eye can see. Epicosity, stock up on salt, wood, buy stock in warm clothing suppliers. Real deal kids. Boys crying for their Mommas. Can't wait to listen to the cackling hens bitchin

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what the models are showing is a spinning vortex in ECanada sending shot after shot of Arctic intrusions, any which could have a strong redeveloping clipper, if as the axis spins we get some STJ interjected, boom. Keep in mind models are a snap shot in time. Good times coming up, the analog lists have a bunch of snowy days in the mix.

I agree....no monster storms, but just the possibility of redeveloping clippers. And I hope we don't have deep, deep cold because I always have frozen pipes. 20 - 30 with snow is good for me. What does the real cold accomplish.....ice on the ponds????

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Just to let folks know how cold the Ens are most of us are enveloped in -15 to -25 degree 850 air from the 23rd to as far as the weenie eye can see. Epicosity, stock up on salt, wood, buy stock in warm clothing suppliers. Real deal kids. Boys crying for their Mommas. Can't wait to listen to the cackling hens bitchin

I'll start bitching about my oil bills if that happens!  Just below or normal temps this time of year are fine by me with a few good storms mixed in for pleasure. The polar vortex cold can take a hike.....of course....imho.

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I agree....no monster storms, but just the possibility of redeveloping clippers. And I hope we don't have deep, deep cold because I always have frozen pipes. 20 - 30 with snow is good for me. What does the real cold accomplish.....ice on the ponds????

Totally agree with that.

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Does anyone want to start a Pattern Part II thread for January ... maybe take "Heavy_Wx" analogs and this,

 

"One thing I am most impressed with is the rather aggressive -EPO that is exploding into the CDC progs.  I noted yesterday that there is an intense and large area of 100mb level warm anomalies over Siberia, extending toward western Canada, and so collocated with that up underneath would be statistically favored blocking -- so seeing that evolve in last night's run is substantial for me.  Meanwhile, the operational GFS brings down a mega EPO dump of probably the coldest air (at least rivaling last week's...) of the season during the closing 10 days of the month.  ..."

 

also as the first couple of pages?  
 

I think it is pretty clear based (from where I am sitting) at all the data that is out there, that we are about to lose our 'winter intersession' pattern, in lieu of what could very well be a return to the -EPO dominating pattern that occurred much of the first half of winter.

 

One difference here is that the AO may just be negative... 

 

Stratosphere thermal profiles flagging suppression...

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Does anyone want to start a Pattern Part II thread for January ... maybe take "Heavy_Wx" analogs and this,

 

"One thing I am most impressed with is the rather aggressive -EPO that is exploding into the CDC progs.  I noted yesterday that there is an intense and large area of 100mb level warm anomalies over Siberia, extending toward western Canada, and so collocated with that up underneath would be statistically favored blocking -- so seeing that evolve in last night's run is substantial for me.  Meanwhile, the operational GFS brings down a mega EPO dump of probably the coldest air (at least rivaling last week's...) of the season during the closing 10 days of the month.  ..."

 

also as the first couple of pages?  

 

I think it is pretty clear based (from where I am sitting) at all the data that is out there, that we are about to lose our 'winter intersession' pattern, in lieu of what could very well be a return to the -EPO dominating pattern that occurred much of the first half of winter.

 

One difference here is that the AO may just be negative... 

 

Stratosphere thermal profiles flagging suppression...

I know what you mean, John, but you may want to choose a diff. word... :lol:

Not exactly a warm/fuzzy connotation attached to that word on here haha

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Crapping on KC is like crapping on Leon.  Bad mojo!

 

It's made a comeback after being featured in some of the shrek movies.

 

Well...at least we're not getting cutters later this week.  That's a +1

I'm with you on this.  The Carpenters were all the rage when I was in my early to late 20's.  Such a shame that a voice like Karen's was silenced so early in life.  It will be 31 years next month.

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