Guvna Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Pretty anomalous ridge over the Pacific Northwest forecast by the 12z Euro ensemble mean. ecmAnom240.png still would be nice to shift that East a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The white pines were bubbling frothy pine sap during the rain today. Deep deep spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 still would be nice to shift that East a bit....west if you want heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 still would be nice to shift that East a bit.... East? All that would do is make it even more dry and cut off any hope of any gulf or atlantic moisture. What you'd like to see is ANYTHING resembling a greenland block but its just not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I know everyone is sick of hearing Leon but if these ENS runs pan out, you will be hearing 94 from MSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 East? All that would do is make it even more dry and cut off any hope of any gulf or atlantic moisture. What you'd like to see is ANYTHING resembling a greenland block but its just not there. EPIC LES now that the lakes are opening up, 1977 style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 well...possibly East and you get a more definitive trough with something up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 well...possibly East and you get a more definitive trough with something up the coast.that would be NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 We don't want the axis east, we want it west, but not too far west we end up with inland runners. I like the 21-22nd for a potential storm, clipper turn redeveloping nor'easter potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Any analog years? Here's what I got, keeping in mind that the spread among the analog years is pretty high. Subjectively, it looked like the best matches over North America were 2/11/91 and 2/26/70, which deviated the least over North America from the Euro ensemble mean forecast. The ridge axis is a bit farther east in the '91 analog and a bit farther west for the '70 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 that would be NW flow I understand that, but if the gradient between the high/ trough sharpens we're talking more of a dive to the South and up the coast. To me right now, it still seems somewhat progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Donnie Baseball with some interesting stats, guess which year was a POS NAO, Leon just walked back in the building to tremendous applause. "The latest EPO forecast shows the EPO reaching approximately 200 meters below normal toward the end of January. During the 1981-10 climate base period, there were 3 cases in which the EPO fell to 200 or more meters below normal in the January 20-31 period during which January had temperature anomalies similar to what has occurred so far this month: 1994, 2003, and 2010." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I understand that, but if the gradient between the high/ trough sharpens we're talking more of a dive to the South and up the coast. To me right now, it still seems somewhat progressive.what the models are showing is a spinning vortex in ECanada sending shot after shot of Arctic intrusions, any which could have a strong redeveloping clipper, if as the axis spins we get some STJ interjected, boom. Keep in mind models are a snap shot in time. Good times coming up, the analog lists have a bunch of snowy days in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just to let folks know how cold the Ens are most of us are enveloped in -15 to -25 degree 850 air from the 23rd to as far as the weenie eye can see. Epicosity, stock up on salt, wood, buy stock in warm clothing suppliers. Real deal kids. Boys crying for their Mommas. Can't wait to listen to the cackling hens bitchin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 what the models are showing is a spinning vortex in ECanada sending shot after shot of Arctic intrusions, any which could have a strong redeveloping clipper, if as the axis spins we get some STJ interjected, boom. Keep in mind models are a snap shot in time. Good times coming up, the analog lists have a bunch of snowy days in the mix. I agree....no monster storms, but just the possibility of redeveloping clippers. And I hope we don't have deep, deep cold because I always have frozen pipes. 20 - 30 with snow is good for me. What does the real cold accomplish.....ice on the ponds???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PineHillsWx Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just to let folks know how cold the Ens are most of us are enveloped in -15 to -25 degree 850 air from the 23rd to as far as the weenie eye can see. Epicosity, stock up on salt, wood, buy stock in warm clothing suppliers. Real deal kids. Boys crying for their Mommas. Can't wait to listen to the cackling hens bitchin I'll start bitching about my oil bills if that happens! Just below or normal temps this time of year are fine by me with a few good storms mixed in for pleasure. The polar vortex cold can take a hike.....of course....imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 I'll start bitching about my oil bills if that happens! Just below or normal temps this time of year are fine by me with a few good storms mixed in for pleasure. The polar vortex cold can take a hike.....of course....imho. I agree 100%.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I agree....no monster storms, but just the possibility of redeveloping clippers. And I hope we don't have deep, deep cold because I always have frozen pipes. 20 - 30 with snow is good for me. What does the real cold accomplish.....ice on the ponds???? Totally agree with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Does anyone want to start a Pattern Part II thread for January ... maybe take "Heavy_Wx" analogs and this, "One thing I am most impressed with is the rather aggressive -EPO that is exploding into the CDC progs. I noted yesterday that there is an intense and large area of 100mb level warm anomalies over Siberia, extending toward western Canada, and so collocated with that up underneath would be statistically favored blocking -- so seeing that evolve in last night's run is substantial for me. Meanwhile, the operational GFS brings down a mega EPO dump of probably the coldest air (at least rivaling last week's...) of the season during the closing 10 days of the month. ..." also as the first couple of pages? I think it is pretty clear based (from where I am sitting) at all the data that is out there, that we are about to lose our 'winter intersession' pattern, in lieu of what could very well be a return to the -EPO dominating pattern that occurred much of the first half of winter. One difference here is that the AO may just be negative... Stratosphere thermal profiles flagging suppression... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Patience friends. We're going to the moon with the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Patience friends. We're going to the moon with the upcoming pattern.full moon this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Patience friends. We're going to the moon with the upcoming pattern. my squirrels aren't fat by any means Jerry. Then again, they were huge when we didn't get any snow back in 2010/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 my squirrels aren't fat by any means Jerry. Then again, they were huge when we didn't get any snow back in 2010/2011 2011-2012, you mean. BIG difference.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Yea we should make a new thread and only include Tips ideas, did I just read that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Does anyone want to start a Pattern Part II thread for January ... maybe take "Heavy_Wx" analogs and this, "One thing I am most impressed with is the rather aggressive -EPO that is exploding into the CDC progs. I noted yesterday that there is an intense and large area of 100mb level warm anomalies over Siberia, extending toward western Canada, and so collocated with that up underneath would be statistically favored blocking -- so seeing that evolve in last night's run is substantial for me. Meanwhile, the operational GFS brings down a mega EPO dump of probably the coldest air (at least rivaling last week's...) of the season during the closing 10 days of the month. ..." also as the first couple of pages? I think it is pretty clear based (from where I am sitting) at all the data that is out there, that we are about to lose our 'winter intersession' pattern, in lieu of what could very well be a return to the -EPO dominating pattern that occurred much of the first half of winter. One difference here is that the AO may just be negative... Stratosphere thermal profiles flagging suppression... I know what you mean, John, but you may want to choose a diff. word... Not exactly a warm/fuzzy connotation attached to that word on here haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Sick sick pattern. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Ginxy your positive affirmations on the upcoming intrusion have me humming this song over and over. Endless good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Ginxy your positive affirmations on the upcoming intrusion have me humming this song over and over. Endless good times ahead. God almighty my sisters music. Horrible. Split flow gets me worked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 God almighty my sisters music. Horrible. Split flow gets me worked up. Crapping on KC is like crapping on Leon. Bad mojo! It's made a comeback after being featured in some of the shrek movies. Well...at least we're not getting cutters later this week. That's a +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Crapping on KC is like crapping on Leon. Bad mojo! It's made a comeback after being featured in some of the shrek movies. Well...at least we're not getting cutters later this week. That's a +1 I'm with you on this. The Carpenters were all the rage when I was in my early to late 20's. Such a shame that a voice like Karen's was silenced so early in life. It will be 31 years next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.