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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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There isn't much reason to complain on the EC ensembles going forward...that is a monster EPO. The only complaint would be no -NAO...but then again if we had a monster -NAO too, we'd prob get '09-'10. :lol:

 

We'll have our chances in this pattern. It is a great miller B pattern.

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That may rival the outbreak we just had when you combine longevity.

 

 

There's a good chance of probably multiple arctic shots in that period given the longwave flow. The +PNA hooking up with it makes it a bit more stable...so we may get a few rounds of arctic cold spinning around the locked in PV near Hudson Bay. That thing might be pinwheeling there for a while.

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This sounds about as wintry as can be starting Saturday. it's here

 

HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ON EXACT OUTCOMES AS THERMAL PROFILES ARE ALSO TIED
TO LOW TRACK. AM ANTICIPATING COLD-AIR DRAINAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AHEAD OF LOW PASSAGE. HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW N/W WITH RAIN
S/E. AGAIN...MUCH OF THIS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH IS
UNCERTAIN. PREFER ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS FOR THE SATURDAY
COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE EARLY WEEKEND STORM LIFTS OUT. COLD AIR IN
PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR PRECIP-TYPES
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH A FOLLOW-UP CLIPPER LOW SUNDAY. A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE SHORES POSSIBLE WITH S-WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH ATTENDANT CONTINENTAL-AIRMASS.

INTO NEXT WEEK...

WITH AN UNCHANGING PATTERN OF RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE...AN ACTIVE WX
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NE CONUS. CONSIDERING COLDER
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
LONGWAVE FLOW...FORSEE A CONTINUANCE OF CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEMS WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. BUT HESITANT TO DISCUSS FURTHER WITH SUCH A
FORECAST SO FAR OUT IN TIME THAT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY.

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Really classic cold signal on Euro Ens. Impressive. Huge ridge bridge from south of Alaska, over the NP, and right through Russia/Caspian Sea. 

 

 

There's a good chance of probably multiple arctic shots in that period given the longwave flow. The +PNA hooking up with it makes it a bit more stable...so we may get a few rounds of arctic cold spinning around the locked in PV near Hudson Bay. That thing might be pinwheeling there for a while.

 

I really that look. As always, a -NAO is always a plus, but that is a sick sick Pacific.

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I guess this is what happens when it rains in VT in Jan... gotta keep those folks away from any bridges or sharp objects.

lol...you saw that pic from Cannon in the Whites, too right? That actually made me feel like it's not as bad here if that's even possible.

It's funny how winters always come down to a few storms usually...remove those and it sucks, or add 'em in and it's great. If we had capitalized on those few storms in Dec and then the arctic storm in early January, while those south and east didn't, we'd be the ones talking folks down from the ledge. But alas, the desperation grows every week it don't snow ;)

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