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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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the way to get KU's with a naso good atlantic is 60/61. we need a southern stream though

 

 

We're prob going to have some Miller B chances...if we can get split flow for a time, then we might get a more widespread system. Jan '61 was a Miller B...a really good one and an analog for this pattern. Jan '05 of course occurred in a pacific-driven pattern not dissimilar from this one. Obviously those are extreme examples. But that is probably how we would get a biggie in late January this year.

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We all fear 01-02 and 11-12 (and 05-06 to some extent) where the goods were to come but never showed...not saying that's the case here, but after those 3 disasters, I'm never sold until it's in the shorter range.

How can you compare this winter to those?

Dobbs Ferry has already had 25" of snow this year...I've had 18" in Southern Brooklyn. 01-02 had only 8" in Dobbs Ferry, and 11-12 had only 20", half of that in October.

We are also heading for a much colder than normal January with a memorable arctic shot with single digit high tenperatures. December was near average. November was -2.5F. We had nothing like that in 01-02 or 11-12.

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I'm sort of in the same boat as Jerry.  I'm still not high on the weekend threat for SNE.  That system still needs some help.  First and foremost it needs a better supply of cold air and 2ndly it needs to dig further S which would help #1.  I'm liking the look of next week right now for a more widespread colder system.

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Well at least the weather has been good for outdoor projects. Had to fix the gutter that blew off in the blizzard and build a workbench in the basement.

building a workbench in the basement is an outdoor project?   Agree though, we don't have to look at x-mas decorations until March this year given the warmth of late/lack of snowcover

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I'm sort of in the same boat as Jerry.  I'm still not high on the weekend threat for SNE.  That system still needs some help.  First and foremost it needs a better supply of cold air and 2ndly it needs to dig further S which would help #1.  I'm liking the look of next week right now for a more widespread colder system.

 

We're jumping on every threat 5+ days out.  When it's inside of 3 days wake me up.

 

 

building a workbench in the basement is an outdoor project?   Agree though, we don't have to look at x-mas decorations until March this year given the warmth of late/lack of snowcover

 

Sawdust prevention.

 

It's been nice to do a little lawn and house repair, trim the bushes etc. 

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Towards the end of the 11-15 day I'm noticing lower heights out west with a ridge still in AK. That means with the PV nearby and split flow look out west...it could be a very exciting time.

Sweet - I will be Arizona the 27th through the 30th so I imagine we will get slammed then...

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Towards the end of the 11-15 day I'm noticing lower heights out west with a ridge still in AK. That means with the PV nearby and split flow look out west...it could be a very exciting time.

 

 

Yeah that might support a more widespread system across the country versus Miller B or clipper threats. I remember Feb '94 occurred in that time of split flow -EPO pattern.

 

In the meantime before that, it looks damned cold in the Jan 22-30 timerange.

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Pretty decent temp. gradient down in the northern GOM at 84H on the NAM.  That trough is drilling for oil.  Can't believe we wouldn't get something spin up out of that.  Question is, will the next s/w coming down into the trough kick it out like the one before it.

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