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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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lol, its all good guys.  Lets get back on topic.

 

18z GFS did have its chances but showed what could happen with bone dry (but at least cold) across all of New England.

 

This is the run total for the GFS so it includes some of this as rain over the next couple days, but shows a general two-week cold, but drier pattern, with the best chances across SE New England.  I think that's a completely prudent outcome.  I think Ginxy, Bob, Jerry, Coastal, Messenger, etc certainly have reason to be very optimistic... but as Ginxy says, "it only takes one" to turn it around for other areas.

 

attachicon.gifgfs.jpg

 

Climatologically though, we are getting to the point in the year with the most suppressed jet on average and also coldest temps on average.  And a dry January up this way isn't unheard of, as if there's a time of the year for that sort of pattern, its usually around this time.  Winter's long, so it'll come up here at some point... the feeling at the ski area is we'll probably get like 6 feet in April or something stupid like that, haha.

Again. Another NNE centric post that no one in SNE cares about.

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The dry slot (right over the Greens) which you shared with all of us was a slight hint lol. Whatevs. I've been warned officially,so I'm back to lurker mode.

A slight hint of what? I thought you were saying this is a SNE only thread which was the issue and not a very well received statement. I'm not trying to be a d-bag, we all post about our backyards more than other places, but I have been saying all along the south and eastern sections of New England stand a better chance in this pattern. If you just want to talk about the positives in the pattern and tell me to stop the b*tching about low snow, that would have been a much more valid statement, haha. I'm a pretty easy going guy.

Have a good one, and don't stop posting. What makes this forum good is the wide range of climates and areas represented on here and our willingness to discuss everything from the EPO to 80s rock music.

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A slight hint of what? I thought you were saying this is a SNE only thread which was the issue and not a very well received statement. I'm not trying to be a d-bag, we all post about our backyards more than other places, but I have been saying all along the south and eastern sections of New England stand a better chance in this pattern. If you just want to talk about the positives in the pattern and tell me to stop the b*tching about low snow, that would have been a much more valid statement, haha. I'm a pretty easy going guy.

Have a good one, and don't stop posting. What makes this forum good is the wide range of climates and areas represented on here and our willingness to discuss everything from the EPO to 80s rock music.

You are a good sport. I called you out for the BY thing, don't take it personally. All good in the hood. Back on topic, the Euro Ens have a succession of arctic attacks over the next 3 weeks with a crescendo at day 15 that would all make us proud. Man I hope this is the way it goes down....if we can get the cold, the snow is gold....

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That's good, because your opinion holds some weight, IMO.

But lets take a break from that negative disco so Blizz has something to wake up to, haha...positives going forward?

Well with no block and possible systems emerging from the Plains, I think it would be hard for you to miss out. It's more crappy luck Dendrite and points east got good snow and you didn't.

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Anytime you see late Jan 2005 on almost every analog, you know the pattern has great potential. Let's see what pops.

I don't remember late Jan 2005 being all that great up here, at least in terms of having enough to get the snowmobile trails rideable. I think the first ride I took was in early February after a fluff bomb. I remember thinking that it couldn't get much worse and then came '05-'06.
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I don't remember late Jan 2005 being all that great up here, at least in terms of having enough to get the snowmobile trails rideable. I think the first ride I took was in early February after a fluff bomb. I remember thinking that it couldn't get much worse and then came '05-'06.

SNE special, lots of the analogs favor snowy solutions, hang in there.
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It's interesting that the PNA is rising like this and there is only wave interference .. 00z GFS operational run tries to wave cold departures in and out while not really "storming" at any time through Day 15.

 

That, in total, is a pretty incredible accomplishment by the atmosphere should that take place. 

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