powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Take a peak at the ensemble members and you'll see the types of storms possible. It may not be a wet pattern, but I don't see it as cold and dry. Of course sometimes patterns to turn out as we hoped, but I think it's a good look. Yeah well I guess its better than an eastern ridge or something, haha. Hopefully the trough axis is a little further west, so these pieces of energy can turn a bit more northward as they hit the coast, rather than just eject eastward and then turn north way out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I still do not see any sign of this. Maybe somewhere down the road in February we ca get the NAO to cooperate, but that is a total crapshoot at this point. Usually a -NAO in March is very good, so hopefully we do get it form sometime later in February. I just figure the odds are that we get some NAOlove at some point this winter. If it is March that is awesome for all of us because that helps us more up here in March than Jan I think - something about wavelengths? The point is, epic is on the table. Higher than average chance at this point in a typical winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 First cold shot is pedestrian -4, -6 second is knock knock, hopefully I have deep snow cover to get some records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Maybe trying to be one of the coldest Jan's. For us? Don't see that. This current torch took any shot of a top 10 coldest January out of the cards. We should still finish comfortably below average for temps this month though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 I just figure the odds are that we get some NAOlove at some point this winter. If it is March that is awesome for all of us because that helps us more up here in March than Jan I think - something about wavelengths? The point is, epic is on the table. Higher than average chance at this point in a typical winter season. very very LR seems to indicate epicosity, I think I just made up that term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 For us? Don't see that. This current torch took any shot of a top 10 coldest January out of the cards. We should still finish comfortably below average for temps this month though. after Thursday we still have 15 days left. I think places like Maine may be in record territory. We probably fall well short but I would not be surprised if we erase both torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Am I missing something or does it just look chilly and dry? I'm trying to be optimistic but the trough axis on these progs seem pretty far east without blocking and weak STJ. What are you guys seeing that looks like it promotes storminess or at least stuff that doesn't just weakly slip out to sea? thats the concern for sure. Not having the nao may hurt here (though for you guys maybe its better not to have that for suppression purposes). Not a wet pattern but I don't think a shut out is likely either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 very very LR seems to indicate epicosity, I think I just made up that term. well you are speaking my language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 after Thursday we still have 15 days left. I think places like Maine may be in record territory. We probably fall well short but I would not be surprised if we erase both torches. They'll need to be like -11F to get record territory in places like CAR and -8 to get a top 5...they're running around -6 right now...gonna be tough to make up ground...they'll erode more of the negatives too over the next few days before it gets cold again. I sppose its possible to make a comeback, but we'll need some serious arctic shots...probably 2 or 3 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Powderfreak, are u gonna make it thru this month , if your snow stake only sees 35". It may happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Powderfreak, are u gonna make it thru this month , if your snow stake only sees 35". It may happen Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Powderfreak, are u gonna make it thru this month , if your snow stake only sees 35". It may happen lol. I'll be fine. I'm looking at the bright side that it is making the mountain operations chess game more interesting. Every decision seems to hold some weight when Mother Nature isn't doing her thing. It makes that side of stuff much more interesting and really shows the strength of some ski areas vs the weaknesses of others when natural snow doesn't happen. I like being up for that challenge. Probably best to get away from the board though with all this talk of epic(oscity) and the like coming up... I'm just not seeing it and don't want to just be a debbie for those that are "all in" on this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Ouch But at least it looks epic coming up. I deserve it though I guess...for all the past several winters of posting snow pics after snow pics (I think you can measure the snowfall this winter more in the lack of snowfall pictures I've posted vs. my seasonal average in past years, lol) from stretches like 20 out of 21 days with measurable snow, while SE New England struggles. It was bound to switch around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 But at least it looks epic coming up. I deserve it though I guess...for all the past several winters of posting snow pics after snow pics (I think you can measure the snowfall this winter more in the lack of snowfall pictures I've posted vs. my seasonal average in past years, lol) from stretches like 20 out of 21 days with measurable snow, while SE New England struggles. It was bound to switch around. You're not being a downer at all. I think that pattern has potential but calling it epic so early? Lets see what happens. It is interesting that what seemed like a long straight torch morphed. We had some snow every few days and now are already looking at systems this week. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Ouch To expand on that, so far 2013-2014 is now in good company with 2001-2002, 2006-2007, 2011-2012, haha (and I'm not sure who thought light green was a good color to use on that background). The next two weeks will be very telling though, as this is about the time those other years tried to make up a little ground to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 You're not being a downer at all. I think that pattern has potential but calling it epic so early? Lets see what happens. It is interesting that what seemed like a long straight torch morphed. We had some snow every few days and now are already looking at systems this week. Not bad. I think going forward you are in a good spot with another -EPO dump of arctic air, and no real reason for strong, wrapped up systems...so I could see you eastern/southern spots in New England doing well relative to normal, with a bunch of nickle and dime type events. Frequent 1-4" snowfalls down there does a lot more relative to average than it does up this way, so I could definitely see this turning favorable for the coastal plain... but you guys are due for a regression to the mean (in a positive way) after several skunker periods in recent winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 lol. I'll be fine. I'm looking at the bright side that it is making the mountain operations chess game more interesting. Every decision seems to hold some weight when Mother Nature isn't doing her thing. It makes that side of stuff much more interesting and really shows the strength of some ski areas vs the weaknesses of others when natural snow doesn't happen. I like being up for that challenge. Probably best to get away from the board though with all this talk of epic(oscity) and the like coming up... I'm just not seeing it and don't want to just be a debbie for those that are "all in" on this pattern. Man up, geezus put on your big boy pants lol , if it's cold and dry its cold and dry but Mahk and I were discussing Feb March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 You're not being a downer at all. I think that pattern has potential but calling it epic so early? Lets see what happens. It is interesting that what seemed like a long straight torch morphed. We had some snow every few days and now are already looking at systems this week. Not bad.we were discussing Feb March, don't forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Nice to see you with those thoughts. I think it's the best look we've seen this winter. Yessir! Certainly any warm-up thoughts I threw out there last week for the tail end of Jan/early Feb are on the back burner for now. That trop forcing doesnt look like it will be making much progress out of the nino-leaning side. I'm still looking out for a north pac regime shift of sorts for late winter but that is no where to be found at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 PF knot tie on the 18z,.17 of frozen in 15 days,sublimation to boot,glacial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Going to be headed back to Boston tomorrow after leaving town for a few weeks. Is there anything on the ground or has the snow from the storm a week or so back been completely obliterated? Gone but for the odd renegade shrinking pile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 PF knot tie on the 18z,.17 of frozen in 15 days,sublimation to boot,glacial. PF knows his stuff, and not many here really seem to forecast for his area, besides saying "you'll be fine" lol. I think he's right w the idea of sne and maybe n mid atlantic gettin some light to mod. Events kind of like don s has posted about today. And since we ave so little compared to mt mansfield we will prob stay aoa wrt normal snowfall while he may fall further behind. I dont see much in the way of large upslope events on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 PF knows his stuff, and not many here really seem to forecast for his area, besides saying "you'll be fine" lol. I think he's right w the idea of sne and maybe n mid atlantic gettin some light to mod. Events kind of like don s has posted about today. And since we ave so little compared to mt mansfield we will prob stay aoa wrt normal snowfall while he may fall further behind. I dont see much in the way of large upslope events on the horizon. that's what the GFS definitely shows. Meh its winter there until Mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 PF knot tie on the 18z,.17 of frozen in 15 days,sublimation to boot,glacial. Dry and cold. But again, that's just my thoughts for this area. I'd feel more confident in some excitement much further southeast with that trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 To expand on that, so far 2013-2014 is now in good company with 2001-2002, 2006-2007, 2011-2012, haha (and I'm not sure who thought light green was a good color to use on that background). The next two weeks will be very telling though, as this is about the time those other years tried to make up a little ground to average. stake_plot.png Terrible that we are comparing this year to 2011-2012 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 PF knows his stuff, and not many here really seem to forecast for his area, besides saying "you'll be fine" lol. I think he's right w the idea of sne and maybe n mid atlantic gettin some light to mod. Events kind of like don s has posted about today. And since we ave so little compared to mt mansfield we will prob stay aoa wrt normal snowfall while he may fall further behind. I dont see much in the way of large upslope events on the horizon. Haha, thanks Cpick. I'm not trying to be the MPM of the north, just trying to be realistic. I think I'm pretty good at looking at things objectively, as un-fun as that is sometimes. It has been a fascinating winter so far though.... very, very rarely get the combo of well below normal temps, above normal precip, and below normal snow. Tamarack mentioned it too in the NNE thread with this comment, "Thru 1/11 the mean temp is 3.8, which is 12.8 below my 16-yr avg. However, I've had more precip (2.53") than snowfall (2.1"), and that imbalance appears likely to continue for a while." I wonder how often a pattern like this occurs... that far below normal temps, but more liquid precip than inches of snow. Return period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 lol...all posts have been fine. Everyone carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Haha, thanks Cpick. I'm not trying to be the MPM of the north, just trying to be realistic. I think I'm pretty good at looking at things objectively, as un-fun as that is sometimes. It has been a fascinating winter so far though.... very, very rarely get the combo of well below normal temps, above normal precip, and below normal snow. Tamarack mentioned it too in the NNE thread with this comment, "Thru 1/11 the mean temp is 3.8, which is 12.8 below my 16-yr avg. However, I've had more precip (2.53") than snowfall (2.1"), and that imbalance appears likely to continue for a while." I wonder how often a pattern like this occurs... that far below normal temps, but more liquid precip than inches of snow. Return period? I feel pretty good of at least somewhat of a reversal for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I feel pretty good of at least somewhat of a reversal for you.I am getting a strong case of Deja Vu, time for the Will, PF holding hands sweater pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 lol, its all good guys. Lets get back on topic. 18z GFS did have its chances but showed what could happen with bone dry (but at least cold) across all of New England. This is the run total for the GFS so it includes some of this as rain over the next couple days, but shows a general two-week cold, but drier pattern, with the best chances across SE New England. I think that's a completely prudent outcome. I think Ginxy, Bob, Jerry, Coastal, Messenger, etc certainly have reason to be very optimistic... but as Ginxy says, "it only takes one" to turn it around for other areas. Climatologically though, we are getting to the point in the year with the most suppressed jet on average and also coldest temps on average. And a dry January up this way isn't unheard of, as if there's a time of the year for that sort of pattern, its usually around this time. Winter's long, so it'll come up here at some point... the feeling at the ski area is we'll probably get like 6 feet in April or something stupid like that, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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