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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Am I missing something or does it just look chilly and dry? I'm trying to be optimistic but the trough axis on these progs seem pretty far east without blocking and weak STJ. What are you guys seeing that looks like it promotes storminess or at least stuff that doesn't just weakly slip out to sea?

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Am I missing something or does it just look chilly and dry? I'm trying to be optimistic but the trough axis on these progs seem pretty far east without blocking and weak STJ. What are you guys seeing that looks like it promotes storminess or at least stuff that doesn't just weakly slip out to sea?

Take a peak at the ensemble members and you'll see the types of storms possible. It may not be a wet pattern, but I don't see it as cold and dry. Of  course sometimes patterns to turn out as we hoped, but I think it's a good look.

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Am I missing something or does it just look chilly and dry? I'm trying to be optimistic but the trough axis on these progs seem pretty far east without blocking and weak STJ. What are you guys seeing that looks like it promotes storminess or at least stuff that doesn't just weakly slip out to sea?

 

I think we're going to see a mix of storms more favorable mainly for CNE and NNE and progressive systems that slip offshore hitting coastal areas.

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If we can keep things moving along, we may be able to avoid wound up cutters and stay cold with frequent moderate snows. I like patterns like that.

The big +PNA ridge should help. Jan '05 had that pattern for about a week leading up to the blizzard. Same with Jan 2003 and Jan 2009.

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That is a real cold signal on the euro ensembles. Such a strong signal so far out. The EC is still keeping at least a portion of the PV here on our side of the pole.

The lowest heights on the globe look like they stay in some part of Canada the entire run of the ensembles.

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MPM of the great white north.

 

I have to balance out the pathological optimism ;)

 

But in reality, I have yet to see something overly favorable for this area, and its not like I say this stuff and its still dumping loads of snow, lol.  The concern has been warranted this season up here.  Trust me, if I think it looks good, I'm all in. 

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It is pretty clear we get very very cold again.  That has been signaled for a while.  So has the stominess of the 16th -24th I think, right?  Now it is just all about the details and a few breaks that go our way.  I am halfway to my seasonal average and expect to have exceeded it by the middle of February.  Maybe sooner.  Seems like an epic stretch is coming and we will get some Atlantic help at some point, perhaps right at the point where the Pacific gets a little hostile..  Right now the -NAO is missing but we don't need that, at least up here. Arctic air and a +PNA will do it.   I wouldn't mind one of those long storms with 12 hours of overrunning at the start.  Those are fun!

 

It also seems like some subtle changes to the reigning pattern give us some additional chances and perhaps we are done with the big cutters for a while.  Will be interesting to see what happens after the arctic dam breaks later this month.

 

I am rambling euphorically right now, almost in Jeb territory - I'll stop.

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It is pretty clear we get very very cold again.  That has been signaled for a while.  So has the stominess of the 16th -24th I think, right?  Now it is just all about the details and a few breaks that go our way.  I am halfway to my seasonal average and expect to have exceeded it by the middle of February.  Maybe sooner.  Seems like an epic stretch is coming and we will get some Atlantic help at some point, perhaps right at the point where the Pacific gets a little hostile..  Right now the -NAO is missing but we don't need that, at least up here. Arctic air and a +PNA will do it.   I wouldn't mind one of those long storms with 12 hours of overrunning at the start.  Those are fun!

 

It also seems like some subtle changes to the reigning pattern give us some additional chances and perhaps we are done with the big cutters for a while.  Will be interesting to see what happens after the arctic dam breaks later this month.

 

I am rambling euphorically right now, almost in Jeb territory - I'll stop.

 

 

I still do not see any sign of this. Maybe somewhere down the road in February we ca get the NAO to cooperate, but that is a total crapshoot at this point. Usually a -NAO in March is very good, so hopefully we do get it form sometime later in February.

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