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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Congratulations on the novel. I hope you try pitching it to some publishers and find success there.

 

Thanks Don'!    Yeah, I have no idea how to do that -- I am completely green to the industry of literary arts.  I am looking into that, now. 

 

The work is in the Sci-Fi genre.  My next may be social in nature/drama, but I have new idea re the former and nanotechnology. Suppose I'll just start writing and see what happens.  Anyway, I do not maintain any illusions about "successes" -- I did not set upon this journey for that reason.  It was more to say, I did it.  Now ... should it get picked up, okay.  

 

Scott, the novel's title is "50 Shades Of Gray Skies"   j/k

 

Jerry, yeah, I'm liking the appeal of this Euro run just for the pure cross-guidance agreement for western heights to build.  It helps determinism ...somewhat, when we see that.  The PNA is impressive at CPC and CDC, so seeing the Euro with this PNA look (certainly PNAP in the least...), lends to the collective thinking for winter return. 

 

This is/was always a kind of relaxation in my mind -- we'll just have see what the new circulation paradigm will be.  Some see products with -EPO return.  Okay, but the PNA appears to be more factor-able for the next 10 days, anyway.  

 

By the way, the AO apparently slated for another (new) nadir that takes it some SD less than 0 over the next two weeks, as well.  Who knows what sensible and or dynamical impacts THAT will have over N/A.   We all know that not all -AOs are evenly distributing...

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:lol: you know it.

 

 

There's like 4 chances for measurable snow on the Euro OP run today...granted a couple of them are little dinky events, but still. That was a wintry run...the D10 event looked to have a bit more punch...andthat 1/15-16 event I'm still eying. That one could be sneaky.

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Its getting way out there...so obviously things can change...but the Euro ensembles def have an arctic outbreak look at the very end...I could def see another intrusion near the end of the month. The EPO ridge is starting to go insane at the end.

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Its getting way out there...so obviously things can change...but the Euro ensembles def have an arctic outbreak look at the very end...I could def see another intrusion near the end of the month. The EPO ridge is starting to go insane at the end.

Ha, I heard someone go "I think we are done with the arctic air" my response to them was "highly doubtful."
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So far this winter since 12/10... We've had some major snow events, one officially 15.1, deep deep cold, lightning and thunder. Who can complain?

 

I'm still waiting for a warning criteria snow so for now I will complain :) NWS BTV isn't showing much hope:

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 243 PM EST SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS DURING THE

MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER

TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER

ACTIVITY. MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH WILL IN GENERAL SETTLE ACROSS

THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PERIODIC WEAK ENERGY

IMPULSES BRINGING SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS TO OUR REGION...NOTHING

SIGNIFICANT. BEST SHOT OF ADDL PCPN SHOULD OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS

LEAD ENERGY BUNDLE ON THE FRONT NOSE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.

TEMPERATURES SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND/OR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW

SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST RECENT

GLOBAL RUNS...INCLUDING THIS MORNING`S EURO SOLN HAVE TRENDED

TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY WEAKER GFS OPEN WAVE IDEA SO AT THIS POINT

NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING HEAVY IN REGARD TO PCPN.

THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD BUT IN GENERAL WILL

BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 25 TO 35

DEG RANGE WED-FRI AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL TO 15 TO 25 UNDER

VRB CLOUD COVER. SOME BROAD CONSENSUS THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT

WILL MAKE A RUN AT US BY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH

COLDER TEMPERATURES...BUT AT FIRST GLANCE IT DOESN`T LOOK NEARLY AS

POTENT AS THE DEEP COLD SNAP WE RECENTLY EXPERIENCED

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Ha, I heard someone go "I think we are done with the arctic air" my response to them was "highly doubtful."

 

 

Its getting way out there...so obviously things can change...but the Euro ensembles def have an arctic outbreak look at the very end...I could def see another intrusion near the end of the month. The EPO ridge is starting to go insane at the end.

knock knock

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Scott and Will definitely nailed it with the EPO returning in late Jan it seems. GEFs not only bending to that outcome but also gradually losing the blow torch all of canada nino look, seemingly coming around to the colder nino-ish look of the euro ens at the end (where there is still plenty of arctic air available in eastern canada, not abandoning NA)..Not sure what we can gather out of this for Feb yet, but things are more promising it would seem

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It is amazing how badly the GEFS have caved to the Euro ensembles...it is almost 100%....not the 70/30 compromise you often see.

sorry... but is that a good thing or what? I'm not privy to the (decent) Euro.

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sorry... but is that a good thing or what? I'm not privy to the (decent) Euro.

 

 

It was good for winter lovers...the EC ensembles were showing the much more wintry pattern while the GEFS were showing an all out furnace for Jan 20-25 a couple days ago, but they have trended toward the EC the past couple days and now are basically in agreement...in fact, they might be even colder than the EC ensmebles now near the very end of the run.

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