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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I posted it several times over a span, ...one has to do that with the amount of traffic there is, or pages scroll and it becomes a waste of one's effort.

 

Not that spending time here isn't to begin with...  

 

But who cares "when"    

 

The statement was all about the singular reason we had any cold/snowier aspects to this winter, appearing to be correlated to a single potent teleconnection -- removing that, exposes a lot.

 

Well we are always under the regime of some sort of teleconnection. We had a raging +AO so remove the -EPO and you get the more classic warmer east coast look. Is that what you meant? I don't see any special underlying circumstance, but that's just me.

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Well we are always under the regime of some sort of teleconnection. We had a raging +AO so remove the -EPO and you get the more classic warmer east coast look. Is that what you meant? I don't see any special underlying circumstance, but that's just me.

 

Sort of -- but I think there are deeper systemic changes.  

 

It's just scientific conjecture and more my own personal hypothesis:  the ambient hemisphere ("resting winter state") isn't doing any favors at 45 N.  

 

Maybe it never did (and there is relativity skewing matters....)  But I suspect that warm air masses penetrating N happens more frequently now than it did a 100 years ago, regardless of AO/epo/nao.   The problem with "-AO" or "+AO" is that there is a misconception they mean cool or warm.  We lable it that way, but all they are, are roots of polynomial expressions that describe an orthogonal matrix  -- I don't see in that definition any mention of snow storms in Boston and butterflies in a China-men's garden.  

 

In other words, take a -1 SD AO 100 years ago, and I bet it means a colder result than it does now.  What is skewing this year, as I mentioned before (I think) is that like I said there is something odd about the polar region that started in Autumn, as is unusually cold relative to modern times.  Maybe that is extra-terrestrial (solar) or something, who knows... but the rapid rate of ice/snow recovery, took place prior to the -WPO/-EPO.  This year (imho) is the exception to the longer term rule.  And, it may last a few more seasons --> 2020.

 

The -WPO/-EPO we had was really a phenomenon...  To see it so persistently suppressed the way the combination was, really did winter enthusiasts a giant reach-around in a modern era of climate change that is trying ream middle latitudes out of winters.  Haha. 

 

Anyway, here are the WPO and EPO spanning the last couple of months... 

 

post-904-0-57743200-1389464346_thumb.jpg

 

 

This most recent cold snap actually took place almost perfectly timed with the nadir of the most recent -EPO that is presented above.  Currently both Pac indices are in positive phase states.

 

What is interesting is that he PNA is rising ...

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Well GEFS have entirely caved to the euro ensembles of a few days ago. Nice building of another EPO at the end of the run (sorry John).

 

What -- haha.  Why are you saying that ?   

 

I clearly stated, in black and white, this may be a temporary scenario, but for now, what blocking there is, is retrograded back to N Siberia.  

 

Geez, talk about knee jerk wrong reaction.

 

And folks, if you believe the current modification of the air mass across the lower 48 is NOT because of the scalar, measured relaxation of the Pac circulation demoed above ... you need to request your account be closed and never log back onto a weather forum ever again. 

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What -- haha.  Why are you saying that ?   

 

I clearly stated, in black and white, this may be a temporary scenario, but for now, what blocking there is, is retrograded back to N Siberia.  

 

Geez, talk about knee jerk wrong reaction.

 

And folks, if you believe the current modification of the air mass across the lower 48 is NOT because of the scalar, measured relaxation of the Pac circulation demoed above ... you need to request your account be closed and never log back onto a weather forum ever again.

I thnk you're getting too emotionally vested in this. I thnk winter will find a way to roll on.

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I thnk you're getting too emotionally vested in this. I thnk winter will find a way to roll on.

 

Keep dreamin, Jer'  

 

You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ...

 

J/K 

 

Hey I finished my novel.   Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc).   Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks...  

 

I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. 

 

So, it is not about the weather.  That would be too easy...

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Keep dreamin, Jer'  

 

You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ...

 

J/K 

 

Hey I finished my novel.   Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc).   Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks...  

 

I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. 

 

So, it is not about the weather.  That would be too easy...

Can't wait to read it john...I'm happy you did this!

Euro has a pretty cold MLK weekend. Balls cold actually with a bit of snow as well.

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Keep dreamin, Jer'  

 

You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ...

 

J/K 

 

Hey I finished my novel.   Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc).   Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks...  

 

I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. 

 

So, it is not about the weather.  That would be too easy...

 

50 shades of grey, weather weenie style?

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Keep dreamin, Jer'  

 

You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ...

 

J/K 

 

Hey I finished my novel.   Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc).   Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks...  

 

I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. 

 

So, it is not about the weather.  That would be too easy...

Congratulations on the novel. I hope you try pitching it to some publishers and find success there.

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Boy a very energetic pattern. Euro is close to something nice next week and even near the 18th. Then it drops the PV into NNE with a clipper system in the Ohio Valley on the 10th moving east. I know it's the op run, but it may not be that whacky. Just unsure of the PV actually dropping into NNE.

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Boy a very energetic pattern. Euro is close to something nice next week and even near the 18th. Then it drops the PV into NNE with a clipper system in the Ohio Valley on the 10th moving east. I know it's the op run, but it may not be that whacky. Just unsure of the PV actually dropping into NNE.

Knock knock

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GEFS are perfect in my mind. Cold but regular cold vs totally frigid and snow chances.

Truthfully I like the move away from Leon but towards an active potentially quite snowy pattern with more pedestrian chill.

Exactly my point several days ago Jerry, the pattern is changing, much better for sustained winter and snow

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Keep dreamin, Jer'

You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ...

J/K

Hey I finished my novel. Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc). Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks...

I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried.

So, it is not about the weather. That would be too easy...

The book of Napes? Short, long, tan?
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