CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I posted it several times over a span, ...one has to do that with the amount of traffic there is, or pages scroll and it becomes a waste of one's effort. Not that spending time here isn't to begin with... But who cares "when" The statement was all about the singular reason we had any cold/snowier aspects to this winter, appearing to be correlated to a single potent teleconnection -- removing that, exposes a lot. Well we are always under the regime of some sort of teleconnection. We had a raging +AO so remove the -EPO and you get the more classic warmer east coast look. Is that what you meant? I don't see any special underlying circumstance, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well GEFS have entirely caved to the euro ensembles of a few days ago. Nice building of another EPO at the end of the run (sorry John). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well GEFS have entirely caved to the euro ensembles of a few days ago. Nice building of another EPO at the end of the run (sorry John). Yeah great look. Like it a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well we are always under the regime of some sort of teleconnection. We had a raging +AO so remove the -EPO and you get the more classic warmer east coast look. Is that what you meant? I don't see any special underlying circumstance, but that's just me. Sort of -- but I think there are deeper systemic changes. It's just scientific conjecture and more my own personal hypothesis: the ambient hemisphere ("resting winter state") isn't doing any favors at 45 N. Maybe it never did (and there is relativity skewing matters....) But I suspect that warm air masses penetrating N happens more frequently now than it did a 100 years ago, regardless of AO/epo/nao. The problem with "-AO" or "+AO" is that there is a misconception they mean cool or warm. We lable it that way, but all they are, are roots of polynomial expressions that describe an orthogonal matrix -- I don't see in that definition any mention of snow storms in Boston and butterflies in a China-men's garden. In other words, take a -1 SD AO 100 years ago, and I bet it means a colder result than it does now. What is skewing this year, as I mentioned before (I think) is that like I said there is something odd about the polar region that started in Autumn, as is unusually cold relative to modern times. Maybe that is extra-terrestrial (solar) or something, who knows... but the rapid rate of ice/snow recovery, took place prior to the -WPO/-EPO. This year (imho) is the exception to the longer term rule. And, it may last a few more seasons --> 2020. The -WPO/-EPO we had was really a phenomenon... To see it so persistently suppressed the way the combination was, really did winter enthusiasts a giant reach-around in a modern era of climate change that is trying ream middle latitudes out of winters. Haha. Anyway, here are the WPO and EPO spanning the last couple of months... This most recent cold snap actually took place almost perfectly timed with the nadir of the most recent -EPO that is presented above. Currently both Pac indices are in positive phase states. What is interesting is that he PNA is rising ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well GEFS have entirely caved to the euro ensembles of a few days ago. Nice building of another EPO at the end of the run (sorry John). What -- haha. Why are you saying that ? I clearly stated, in black and white, this may be a temporary scenario, but for now, what blocking there is, is retrograded back to N Siberia. Geez, talk about knee jerk wrong reaction. And folks, if you believe the current modification of the air mass across the lower 48 is NOT because of the scalar, measured relaxation of the Pac circulation demoed above ... you need to request your account be closed and never log back onto a weather forum ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 What -- haha. Why are you saying that ? I clearly stated, in black and white, this may be a temporary scenario, but for now, what blocking there is, is retrograded back to N Siberia. Geez, talk about knee jerk wrong reaction. And folks, if you believe the current modification of the air mass across the lower 48 is NOT because of the scalar, measured relaxation of the Pac circulation demoed above ... you need to request your account be closed and never log back onto a weather forum ever again. I thnk you're getting too emotionally vested in this. I thnk winter will find a way to roll on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I thnk you're getting too emotionally vested in this. I thnk winter will find a way to roll on. Keep dreamin, Jer' You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ... J/K Hey I finished my novel. Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc). Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks... I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. So, it is not about the weather. That would be too easy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Keep dreamin, Jer' You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ... J/K Hey I finished my novel. Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc). Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks... I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. So, it is not about the weather. That would be too easy... Can't wait to read it john...I'm happy you did this! Euro has a pretty cold MLK weekend. Balls cold actually with a bit of snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Keep dreamin, Jer' You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ... J/K Hey I finished my novel. Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc). Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks... I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. So, it is not about the weather. That would be too easy... 50 shades of grey, weather weenie style? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Keep dreamin, Jer' You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ... J/K Hey I finished my novel. Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc). Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks... I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. So, it is not about the weather. That would be too easy... Congratulations on the novel. I hope you try pitching it to some publishers and find success there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro unloads the cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro unloads the cold again. Flirting with zilch MLK morning. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Boy a very energetic pattern. Euro is close to something nice next week and even near the 18th. Then it drops the PV into NNE with a clipper system in the Ohio Valley on the 10th moving east. I know it's the op run, but it may not be that whacky. Just unsure of the PV actually dropping into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This is turning into one strange winter ... Strange Winter 2013-2014 Most unique, I am thoroughly enjoying it and more than halfway to season average snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well euro really beings back winter MLK weekend and beyond, Cold and snowy. I hope the ensembles validate the op today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Boy a very energetic pattern. Euro is close to something nice next week and even near the 18th. Then it drops the PV into NNE with a clipper system in the Ohio Valley on the 10th moving east. I know it's the op run, but it may not be that whacky. Just unsure of the PV actually dropping into NNE. Knock knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Well euro really beings back winter MLK weekend and beyond, Cold and snowy. I hope the ensembles validate the op today. I will ask it again as it has happened since the modification, why is the 0Z run so funky, 12Z's end up being much closer to reality time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Maya kicks Leon and says....wake up muthufukka...you ain't done son..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 In contrast I have close to 80% of my seasonal snowfall. 80% of total or normal up to now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I can't wait for TWC to start naming every polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 GEFS are perfect in my mind. Cold but regular cold vs totally frigid and snow chances. Truthfully I like the move away from Leon but towards an active potentially quite snowy pattern with more pedestrian chill. Exactly my point several days ago Jerry, the pattern is changing, much better for sustained winter and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I can't wait for TWC to start naming every polar vortex. Knock knock PV2 is walking in your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I can't wait for TWC to start naming every polar vortex. I sure hope Leon is being considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I sure hope Leon is being considered. as long as its not Maya although she did speak here at the Museum and was absolutely wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I sure hope Leon is being considered.Last one was Aikman...next one is Beebe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Last one was Aikman...next one is Beebe. Followed by Chris Christie.....for the next really big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Keep dreamin, Jer' You'll never succeed at converting me to the dark side of the force, no matter how often you falsely label, or inappropriately read in/spin the content of my contribution ... J/K Hey I finished my novel. Remember a few years ago, you were telling me I was wasting time not trying to do one based on my alternate posting style ( which is/was far more rhetorical in nature...etc). Anyway, I have my detractors on this site that would disagree ( am sure ) but over years I have been urged to try something, not just by you, from all walks... I just did not want to wake up one day when I was 70 and wonder why I never tried. So, it is not about the weather. That would be too easy... The book of Napes? Short, long, tan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Seasonal total Steve. Pretty darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The book of Napes? Short, long, tan? He's a writer for Hallmark now specializing in Valentines Day cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Seasonal total Steve. Pretty darn good. Cool so you are way above normal, 80% on 1/11 when most of your snow comes from now until March like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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