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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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well I'm almost halfway to my "normal " total of 58".and it's Jan 11. If that's not way above then I guess I'm drunk

 

 

You are halfway to 52"....that is your normal?

 

 

At any rate, 26" there is probably about 130% of normal, so you are doing well. But I wouldn't consider that WAY above average...esp this early. Its easy to be above in terms of percentages this early. A place like Philly is way way above average.

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Meteorologist Andy Gregorio WTEN YW. So far for Albany 31.6" Normal snowfall through 1/7 20.4" so we're 11.2" above normal on the snow. Normal snowfall for Albany is about 59/60 inches. So we're about half way to normal snowfall.

 

that would be 150% above normal

 

In contrast I have close to 80% of my seasonal snowfall.

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Meteorologist Andy Gregorio WTEN YW. So far for Albany 31.6" Normal snowfall through 1/7 20.4" so we're 11.2" above normal on the snow. Normal snowfall for Albany is about 59/60 inches. So we're about half way to normal snowfall.

 

that would be 150% above normal

 

 

This is turning into one strange winter ...   Strange Winter 2013-2014

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There may or may not be potential events in this type of circulation, but I recall posting two weeks ago (or more...) that the character of the winter pattern was changing toward a new paradigm ... and well, here we are.

 

No more -EPO ... In fact, the NP has changed ... still looks a bit "AA" -like but it's retrograded whatever blocking there is more to the Siberian side of the pole, such that the N-latitude Rosby orientation has effectively cut off the cold supply to latitudes below ~50N. This may or may not be a temporary scenario.  

 

In any event, this has exposed a fraudulent winter in a lot of ways.  Basically ... we had highly anomalous -WPO/-EPO persistence that spanned some two months.  Remove that predominating drive and it shows how one dimensional this winter is ... one trick pony. Kind of like an NFL analogy, where a team has a 10-0 record, then something happens to their roster and they get bounced out of the playoffs.

 

But, it is hard to ignore the near record rate of ice/snow recovery in the polar domain that occurred in the Autumn.  There was something about the polar region that was on a fast track to cryospheric recovery.   What I have noticed is that we cannot seem to relax the gradient this year.  My personal hypothesis is that there is something unusual about the polar region that is drilling more cold, and this is supplying an usually high gradient everywhere, against the erstwhile 30-year warming climate modality.   ... partially culpable in these dramatic sensible weather oscillations.  

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Tip your post was a few days ago I think. But I'm not sure we're dumping the EPO in its entirety.

 

I posted it several times over a span, ...one has to do that with the amount of traffic there is, or pages scroll and it becomes a waste of one's effort.

 

Not that spending time here isn't to begin with...  

 

But who cares "when"    

 

The statement was all about the singular reason we had any cold/snowier aspects to this winter, appearing to be correlated to a single potent teleconnection -- removing that, exposes a lot.

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