eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Within 5 days..so this threat is probably worthy of its own thread. How's the euro Yeah I think so too. Even if it is a low prob threat, it's clearly there on all guidance. And its discussion muddles up the longrange pattern stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro probably has a solid advisory event for the eastern half of the region. But it gets 1-3 all the way back the NY border...maybe Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 This is the year when these follow up waves produce. This will trend even better too as we get closer. You could see this turning into a 3-6 or 4-8 type deal. 6 days..6 days left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Scooter on board WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy2m Fast moving snow storm next week? GFS and European op models showing good agreement #NYC #Boston #Snow #WedeveCommute pic.twitter.com/y62zlrwtIB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Big spread in the handling of the shortwaves imbedded in the LW trof on the GEFS days 4-6. A few have the sharp day 4 wave and cutter pronounced like the Euro while the rest are blended somewhere between that and the OP GFS solution, with varying degrees of interference. I think the 12z GFS temporarily lost the first s/w and will show it in subsequent runs. That would push the thermal boundary further east... probably good for mid-Atl and SE SNE for a coastal days 5-6. Maybe the follow up wave dives for the GOM and spins up a beaut from Richmond to Maine. Could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Scooter on board WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy2m Fast moving snow storm next week? GFS and European op models showing good agreement #NYC #Boston #Snow #WedeveCommute pic.twitter.com/y62zlrwtIB Hmm..a little soon perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Scooter on board WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy2m Fast moving snow storm next week? GFS and European op models showing good agreement #NYC #Boston #Snow #WedeveCommute pic.twitter.com/y62zlrwtIB Similarities in the surface progs belie significant differences in the height fields leading up to the event between the Euro and GFS op runs. Large differences appear after day 3. The 132hr surface chart is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Oh boy, here comes the Euro....JB's twitter will be lighting up like the 4th of July. JB likes the cold in day 6-10 on the Euro per twitter...lol-no mention of storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Colder trends that have occurred for next week make sense given the tropical forcing state. Good to see. Those GEFS looked very el ninoish in the 11-15 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 From Buffalo, NY... this is the opposite of what we like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Knock Knock Who is there? Polar Polar who? Polar Vortex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 From Buffalo, NY... this is the opposite of what we like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Should I start a new thread for the January 15-17th period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Knock Knock Who is there? Polar Polar who? Polar Vortex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 12z EC ensembles are nice...they have the 1/16 threat, but they also have a threat for 1/19 that the OP run didn't have...given its 9 days out, no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Colder trends that have occurred for next week make sense given the tropical forcing state. Good to see. Those GEFS looked very el ninoish in the 11-15 day I didn't think the GEFS made sense given some of those Roundy images...but again I'm no expert. Seems like EC at least IMHO made more sense given tropics. EC looks darn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 12z EC ensembles are nice...they have the 1/16 threat, but they also have a threat for 1/19 that the OP run didn't have...given its 9 days out, no surprise. Yeah..we thought they'd bring the 16th storm west.. Just keep telling myself ..get to Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yeah..we thought they'd bring the 16th storm west.. Just keep telling myself ..get to Wednesday That's not a given. You have a small margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That's not a given. You have a small margin of error. There's good ens and model agreement. This one seems like a very good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 There's good ens and model agreement. This one seems like a very good bet. Certainly on the table, but far from locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 EC ensembles really go to town on the -EPO by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 From Buffalo, NY... this is the opposite of what we like to see. Haha, that's my mother-in-law's parish in West Seneca. Just the sort of thing I'd expect from her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 EC ensembles really go to town on the -EPO by the end of the run. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a -EPO seems to be one of the top signals for cold in our region. I recall January 2009 also had a -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Oh boy, here comes the Euro....JB's twitter will be lighting up like the 4th of July. Jb said yesterday that the price of natural gas had been affected by yesterday's warm GFS run. If the EURO is right, some investors won't be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but a -EPO seems to be one of the top signals for cold in our region. I recall January 2009 also had a -EPO.Yes you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That is one orgasmic run of the Euro Ensembles this afternoon if you love winter weather. Damn. Wish I could post the animation of the NH global view. Looks like Jerry drew the maps, while Kevin was prancing around nude in the kitchen throwing baking soda in the air to music and Will and Scooter were standing out on the deck giggling like school girls pointing at the winter weather fools...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 That is one orgasmic run of the Euro Ensembles this afternoon if you love winter weather. Damn. Wish I could post the animation of the NH global view. Looks like Jerry drew the maps, while Kevin was prancing around nude in the kitchen throwing baking soda in the air to music and Will and Scooter were standing out on the deck giggling like school girls pointing at the winter weather fools...... :lol: Drink up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 :lol: Drink up! Helluva pattern Kevin. There could be lots of frontal, backal and sidal going on over the next 30 days I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 ov/un for how many times Polar Vortex Part 2 is mentioned next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 ov/un for how many times Polar Vortex Part 2 is mentioned next weekend?knock knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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