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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Big spread in the handling of the shortwaves imbedded in the LW trof on the GEFS days 4-6.  A few have the sharp day 4 wave and cutter pronounced like the Euro while the rest are blended somewhere between that and the OP GFS solution, with varying degrees of interference.  I think the 12z GFS temporarily lost the first s/w and will show it in subsequent runs.  That would push the thermal boundary further east... probably good for mid-Atl and SE SNE for a coastal days 5-6.  Maybe the follow up wave dives for the GOM and spins up a beaut from Richmond to Maine.  Could happen.

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Scooter on board

 

Fast moving snow storm next week? GFS and European op models showing good agreement #NYC #Boston #Snow #WedeveCommute pic.twitter.com/y62zlrwtIB

 
 

 

Similarities in the surface progs belie significant differences in the height fields leading up to the event between the Euro and GFS op runs.  Large differences appear after day 3.  The 132hr surface chart is misleading.

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Colder trends that have occurred for next week make sense given the tropical forcing state. Good to see. Those GEFS looked very el ninoish in the 11-15 day

 

I didn't think the GEFS made sense given some of those Roundy images...but again I'm no expert. Seems like EC at least IMHO made more sense given tropics. EC looks darn good.

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That is one orgasmic run of the Euro Ensembles this afternoon if you love winter weather. Damn. Wish I could post the animation of the NH global view.

 

Looks like Jerry drew the maps, while Kevin was prancing around nude in the kitchen throwing baking soda in the air to music and Will and Scooter were standing out on the deck giggling like school girls pointing at the winter weather fools......

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That is one orgasmic run of the Euro Ensembles this afternoon if you love winter weather. Damn. Wish I could post the animation of the NH global view.

 

Looks like Jerry drew the maps, while Kevin was prancing around nude in the kitchen throwing baking soda in the air to music and Will and Scooter were standing out on the deck giggling like school girls pointing at the winter weather fools......

:lol: :lol:

Drink up!

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