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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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So is a cutter on the 15th baked in the cake?  HPC talking about a heavy precip event moving up the eastern seaboard.  Is that a cutter or are there any synoptic reasons for having this be a colder more eaasterly storm?  And then there is a followup threat 17th, cold dump 18-20th with a possible storm?  Then slight warm up?

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I think most of the interior would take '92-'93.

Boston points se, '94.

 

 

Certainly along and north of the pike...probably not for south of there though.

 

 

'92-'93 is my favorite winter of all time...so for me, its a no brainer. Further south in the interior, not so obvious. '93-'94 was pretty darn good there...and they were quite tainted a couple of the big events in '92-'93. (namely Mar 4-5, 1993 and Jan 12-13, 1993...of course the valley got shafted too in Dec 1992).

 

But choosing between those winters is a lotbetter than choosing between two dead ratters. I'm optimistic this one gets jump-started again.

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Certainly along and north of the pike...probably not for south of there though.

 

 

'92-'93 is my favorite winter of all time...so for me, its a no brainer. Further south in the interior, not so obvious. '93-'94 was pretty darn good there...and they were quite tainted a couple of the big events in '92-'93. (namely Mar 4-5, 1993 and Jan 12-13, 1993...of course the valley got shafted too in Dec 1992).

 

But choosing between those winters is a lotbetter than choosing between two dead ratters. I'm optimistic this one gets jump-started again.

 

Agreed, I think that is the point we've tried to drive home. I feel the same.

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Big change on the OP GFS at day 4 over the Lakes, which is suspicious.  But at face value it looks very promising.  PNA ridge building and energy both cresting the ridge and diving into the central US trof, which looks pretty well aligned.  The flow over the atlantic is not great, but that's not news and we don't absolutely need it.

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Not sure about that.  I still might prefer to be near the coastal plain for more excitement with that kind of setup.  You're gonna say temps look marginal, which they do... but a coastal SLP track could get the job done.

 

Well I'm talking about the GFS verbatim obviously. But, the track sucks for the CP.  We'll see this change anyways.

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Well I'm talking about the GFS verbatim obviously. But, the track sucks for the CP.  We'll see this change anyways.

The last several runs of the GFS have favored the coast over NNE.  I think we would need a pretty mature trof or some kind of GFS/Euro compromise to pound ski country, esp western NNE.  But yeah, it will definitely change.  But I think it looks pretty sweet for a day 5 prog in a bad stretch.  Recent GEFs individuals have included a handful of hits.

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The last several runs of the GFS have favored the coast over NNE.  I think we would need a pretty mature trof or some kind of GFS/Euro compromise to pound ski country, esp western NNE.  But yeah, it will definitely change.  But I think it looks pretty sweet for a day 5 prog in a bad stretch.  Recent GEFs individuals have included a handful of hits.

 

Yes I agree it looks tasty.  These events where we have a follow up s/w always cause hardships with the models.

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Looks fine to me, is what it is. We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true).

I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond. I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us.

I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do. It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year.

Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter

Take out 2/8/13 and Boston had a mediocre winter. Seriously though take off 25 years and I'm in my early 40s.

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Just to add to the 92-93 vs the 93-94 discussion,  my all time favorite winter is still 92-93 simply because our long local nightmare was finally over.  After living through the 80's that was a godsend of a late winter comeback.  Feb/march was the first time in my life that I experienced snow 3 of 4 times ion one week for several weeks. Amazing winter.

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Certainly along and north of the pike...probably not for south of there though.

 

 

'92-'93 is my favorite winter of all time...so for me, its a no brainer. Further south in the interior, not so obvious. '93-'94 was pretty darn good there...and they were quite tainted a couple of the big events in '92-'93. (namely Mar 4-5, 1993 and Jan 12-13, 1993...of course the valley got shafted too in Dec 1992).

 

But choosing between those winters is a lotbetter than choosing between two dead ratters. I'm optimistic this one gets jump-started again.

1) How T F do you remember those obscure vents.

2) Very true...I was only thinking about Boston points n and w

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The 12z GFS completely lost the sharp s/w over the Great Lakes that it had been showing for several runs.  This sudden s/w disappearance makes me uneasy.  The result is less s/w interference and the baroclinic zone stays right along the coastal plain, a little too far west in fact for coastal SNE.  If it's right, the energy diving into the trof could really amplify the whole structure and set the stage for a strong system.  The Euro had a strong lead wave that enabled a slp to cut just west and then the followup was shunted just SE.  That progression is still very much in play IMO.  But there is room in here to spin up something respectable.  We also have to bleed in enough cold at lower levels before any precip arrives.   I still favor a coastal or offshore solution with a possible weak primary preceding.

 

post-1474-0-67621300-1389372935_thumb.jp

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Just to add to the 92-93 vs the 93-94 discussion,  my all time favorite winter is still 92-93 simply because our long local nightmare was finally over.  After living through the 80's that was a godsend of a late winter comeback.  Feb/march was the first time in my life that I experienced snow 3 of 4 times ion one week for several weeks. Amazing winter.

 

 

That was definitely a big aspect that made '92-'93 that much more enjoyable...we ended our nightmare run in grand fashion. Kicking that season off with Dec '92 made "breaking the drought" even sweeter (with apologies to the CT Valley and SE MA folks who got screwed in that one).

 

 

Funny that we mention that winter because one of the D11 analogs had been early Feb 1993...though it is not there on today's set.

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I think most of the interior would take '92-'93.

Boston points se, '94.

 

92-93 was only half a winter in all but extreme S.Maine, though what a half!  That season ranks dead last of my 13 in Gardiner for snow depth days thru Jan 31.  Then Feb/Mar and early April went crazy.  Farmington COOP recorded their snowiest Feb/Mar in 120 yr records, and their snowpack went from "Trace" on 1/31 to 56" in March, 2nd highest on record.  However, for snowpack, 93-94 was far superior.  It had 21" less snowfall than 92-93 (and 51" less than 95-96) yet had about 50% more SDDs than either of those winters.

 

Like most of us, I'd take either one.  2" of Jan snow through 10days (and probably thru at least 14) is hardly encouraging.

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