RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yea thanks mets and weenies...my bathroom breaks at work take longer, my boss wonders if i have a weak stomach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 So is a cutter on the 15th baked in the cake? HPC talking about a heavy precip event moving up the eastern seaboard. Is that a cutter or are there any synoptic reasons for having this be a colder more eaasterly storm? And then there is a followup threat 17th, cold dump 18-20th with a possible storm? Then slight warm up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not me but I won't quibble. 1993-94 was the best but 1992-93 was as epic as a feb/mar could be. I think most of the interior would take '92-'93. Boston points se, '94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think most of the interior would take '92-'93. Boston points se, '94. Certainly along and north of the pike...probably not for south of there though. '92-'93 is my favorite winter of all time...so for me, its a no brainer. Further south in the interior, not so obvious. '93-'94 was pretty darn good there...and they were quite tainted a couple of the big events in '92-'93. (namely Mar 4-5, 1993 and Jan 12-13, 1993...of course the valley got shafted too in Dec 1992). But choosing between those winters is a lotbetter than choosing between two dead ratters. I'm optimistic this one gets jump-started again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Certainly along and north of the pike...probably not for south of there though. '92-'93 is my favorite winter of all time...so for me, its a no brainer. Further south in the interior, not so obvious. '93-'94 was pretty darn good there...and they were quite tainted a couple of the big events in '92-'93. (namely Mar 4-5, 1993 and Jan 12-13, 1993...of course the valley got shafted too in Dec 1992). But choosing between those winters is a lotbetter than choosing between two dead ratters. I'm optimistic this one gets jump-started again. Agreed, I think that is the point we've tried to drive home. I feel the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Big change on the OP GFS at day 4 over the Lakes, which is suspicious. But at face value it looks very promising. PNA ridge building and energy both cresting the ridge and diving into the central US trof, which looks pretty well aligned. The flow over the atlantic is not great, but that's not news and we don't absolutely need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 NNE can rejoice on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 NNE can rejoice on the GFS. 12z GFS delivering the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 NNE can rejoice on the GFS. Not sure about that. I still might prefer to be near the coastal plain for more excitement with that kind of setup. You're gonna say temps look marginal, which they do... but a coastal SLP track could get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Not sure about that. I still might prefer to be near the coastal plain for more excitement with that kind of setup. You're gonna say temps look marginal, which they do... but a coastal SLP track could get the job done. Well I'm talking about the GFS verbatim obviously. But, the track sucks for the CP. We'll see this change anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Heh, GFS is furthest west and Euro furthest east with that "threat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Well I'm talking about the GFS verbatim obviously. But, the track sucks for the CP. We'll see this change anyways. The last several runs of the GFS have favored the coast over NNE. I think we would need a pretty mature trof or some kind of GFS/Euro compromise to pound ski country, esp western NNE. But yeah, it will definitely change. But I think it looks pretty sweet for a day 5 prog in a bad stretch. Recent GEFs individuals have included a handful of hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The last several runs of the GFS have favored the coast over NNE. I think we would need a pretty mature trof or some kind of GFS/Euro compromise to pound ski country, esp western NNE. But yeah, it will definitely change. But I think it looks pretty sweet for a day 5 prog in a bad stretch. Recent GEFs individuals have included a handful of hits. Yes I agree it looks tasty. These events where we have a follow up s/w always cause hardships with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Looks fine to me, is what it is. We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true). I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond. I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us. I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do. It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year. Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter Take out 2/8/13 and Boston had a mediocre winter. Seriously though take off 25 years and I'm in my early 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You don't know from one run to the next with the GFS what this one will be as 06z had it as a scraper east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 something to track Still holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Take out 2/8/13 and Boston had a mediocre winter. Seriously though take off 25 years and I'm in my early 40s. Yeah, I hate that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 does the GFS still having me tilling soil and planting seeds in the longer term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Take out 2/8/13 and Boston had a mediocre winter. Seriously though take off 25 years and I'm in my early 40s. Take out one scene and Lincoln had a good night at the theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just to add to the 92-93 vs the 93-94 discussion, my all time favorite winter is still 92-93 simply because our long local nightmare was finally over. After living through the 80's that was a godsend of a late winter comeback. Feb/march was the first time in my life that I experienced snow 3 of 4 times ion one week for several weeks. Amazing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Certainly along and north of the pike...probably not for south of there though. '92-'93 is my favorite winter of all time...so for me, its a no brainer. Further south in the interior, not so obvious. '93-'94 was pretty darn good there...and they were quite tainted a couple of the big events in '92-'93. (namely Mar 4-5, 1993 and Jan 12-13, 1993...of course the valley got shafted too in Dec 1992). But choosing between those winters is a lotbetter than choosing between two dead ratters. I'm optimistic this one gets jump-started again. 1) How T F do you remember those obscure vents. 2) Very true...I was only thinking about Boston points n and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The 12z GFS completely lost the sharp s/w over the Great Lakes that it had been showing for several runs. This sudden s/w disappearance makes me uneasy. The result is less s/w interference and the baroclinic zone stays right along the coastal plain, a little too far west in fact for coastal SNE. If it's right, the energy diving into the trof could really amplify the whole structure and set the stage for a strong system. The Euro had a strong lead wave that enabled a slp to cut just west and then the followup was shunted just SE. That progression is still very much in play IMO. But there is room in here to spin up something respectable. We also have to bleed in enough cold at lower levels before any precip arrives. I still favor a coastal or offshore solution with a possible weak primary preceding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yeah, I hate that logic. Yea, I mean....alter the mean position of a trough or two, and we had some great winters in the late 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 NNE can rejoice on the GFS. This would be comical at this point...any excuse not to snow in VT, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just to add to the 92-93 vs the 93-94 discussion, my all time favorite winter is still 92-93 simply because our long local nightmare was finally over. After living through the 80's that was a godsend of a late winter comeback. Feb/march was the first time in my life that I experienced snow 3 of 4 times ion one week for several weeks. Amazing winter. That was definitely a big aspect that made '92-'93 that much more enjoyable...we ended our nightmare run in grand fashion. Kicking that season off with Dec '92 made "breaking the drought" even sweeter (with apologies to the CT Valley and SE MA folks who got screwed in that one). Funny that we mention that winter because one of the D11 analogs had been early Feb 1993...though it is not there on today's set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I enjoyed 1992-1993 despite it not being a huge winter. I estimate maybe 65-70" where I was in Brockton. Solid winter and broke the back of the garbage years. The gradient literally was near my head though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Yeah the 80's still make me shudder. Boston went four years without cracking double digits in a single storm (I think 88-92). I spent the last five years of my school years getting maybe two or three snow days off. horrible time for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Just another day........ http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=46.85103469060768&lon=-121.75907135009765 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 GEFS are north too for the 15th. That also fits the EC ensembles, although the EC had a redeveloper on the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think most of the interior would take '92-'93. Boston points se, '94. 92-93 was only half a winter in all but extreme S.Maine, though what a half! That season ranks dead last of my 13 in Gardiner for snow depth days thru Jan 31. Then Feb/Mar and early April went crazy. Farmington COOP recorded their snowiest Feb/Mar in 120 yr records, and their snowpack went from "Trace" on 1/31 to 56" in March, 2nd highest on record. However, for snowpack, 93-94 was far superior. It had 21" less snowfall than 92-93 (and 51" less than 95-96) yet had about 50% more SDDs than either of those winters. Like most of us, I'd take either one. 2" of Jan snow through 10days (and probably thru at least 14) is hardly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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