ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Was there ens agreement on the 16-17th? They show the storm, but its a bit east to really hit anyone verbatim. Maybe grazed in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 So looking at the long range, it strikes me that we are going to 1993-94 with more and spectacular warm spikes to 1992-93. I'm changing Leon to maya Angelou..lol who I watched deliver some words at Clinton's first inauguration on a very warm day. It was a great snow winter in February and March so naturally I'd take it. As I look outside at my 12+ on the ground, And the light snow falling down, With 6 degrees farenheit all around... Though the incoming monsoon makes me frown, Now I know why the caged weenie sings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 They show the storm, but its a bit east to really hit anyone verbatim. Maybe grazed in E MA.Thats a good look for now then. That will surely come west over the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 As I look outside at my 12+ on the ground, And the light snow falling down, With 6 degrees farenheit all around... Though the incoming monsoon makes me frown, Now I know why the caged weenie sings... awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thats a good look for now then. That will surely come west over the next few runs What makes you so sure in a progressive pattern? We don;t have a block to slow stuff down. Relying solely on s/w nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Euro ensembles look better than yesterday in the LR....we get a cold shot MLK weekend...then we may try and moderate for a day or two before the next -EPO/+PNA push as they retro the ridge a bit. You can clearly see the ridge retrograding betwene Jan 20 and 25. That's what I really like becuase it will spread the cold a little bit more west and the trough axis too which is good for storminess. Looks great, Jerry really Maya Angelou? you need a pizzaz name. I know...but it was so blah..lol. Maybe billary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Thats a good look for now then. That will surely come west over the next few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I know...but it was so blah..lol. Maybe billary? Think I pulled 45 inches from now until April that year, monster March, with all the cold and the cyrosphere as it is this year March could be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What makes you so sure in a progressive pattern? We don;t have a block to slow stuff down. Relying solely on s/w nuances. Every single one of these follow up waves this winter have trended closer in as we get closer. It's odd but it's happened even with progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 It's definitely not the same pattern. Who cares...the results won't be terribly different. It's fun to go 50 pages deep talking about the nuances of model runs 10-15 days away but the meat of it is for the northeast we'll still be cold enough to snow a significant portion of the time but will walk the line maybe even more tightly than before. No deep sustained multi week cold, no protracted warm shots either just more of the same. Technical pattern may be different but only weenies and traders really care about that...the other 99.8% of the world will see it snowing some in between mild ups and think not much has changed. After all....we still have the polar vortex to worry about, I heard it's basically a big winter hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I know...but it was so blah..lol. Maybe billary? I remember that super storm in the Shetland Islands when the oil tanker Braer broke up, crazy storm, think it got down to like 910 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Who cares...the results won't be terribly different. It's fun to go 50 pages deep talking about the nuances of model runs 10-15 days away but the meat of it is for the northeast we'll still be cold enough to snow a significant portion of the time but will walk the line maybe even more tightly than before. No deep sustained multi week cold, no protracted warm shots either just more of the same. Technical pattern may be different but only weenies and traders really care about that...the other 99.8% of the world will see it snowing some in between mild ups and think not much has changed. After all....we still have the polar vortex to worry about, I heard it's basically a big winter hurricane. agree. Sensible weather is not favorable for snow lovers....we're not even close with these warm cutters every 4-6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 In fact, Steve texted me a COOP summary. "In the year of thy Lord 1642, thou hast snow up to thy weenie in early January. A cutter costeth many lives of cattle along the Pawcatuck river, followed by snow up to they knickers in early February.." Meh, you sent me one back. " It might be cold next week then again it might be warm, we could get a Miller B but it could miss. I am concerned about the EPO but the typhoon recurve has me thinking not to be. I will be sure 6 hours before" Haven't looked, but models must have turned south because the natives are at each other's throats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Last one into the Sox off season thread is a rotten egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Who cares...the results won't be terribly different. It's fun to go 50 pages deep talking about the nuances of model runs 10-15 days away but the meat of it is for the northeast we'll still be cold enough to snow a significant portion of the time but will walk the line maybe even more tightly than before. No deep sustained multi week cold, no protracted warm shots either just more of the same. Technical pattern may be different but only weenies and traders really care about that...the other 99.8% of the world will see it snowing some in between mild ups and think not much has changed. After all....we still have the polar vortex to worry about, I heard it's basically a big winter hurricane. I don't know about that. The pattern is different and it's too early to say that we will see the same results from a change in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 agree. Sensible weather is not favorable for snow lovers....we're not even close with these warm cutters every 4-6 days We will be fine in a week or so. This mild up was well advertised. My only point is we're approaching page 50 and what's really changed? It cools down around the 15th and that is when the threats begin again. We knew that like 35 pages ago What comes after that is probably a less cold version of what we had but with ample opportunity. Sure it is definitely a different pattern but the results up here probably aren't terribly different. Rest of the country different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Haven't looked, but models must have turned south because the natives are at each other's throats. Just a few jumpers from yesterday's GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I don't know about that. The pattern is different and it's too early to say that we will see the same results from a change in the pattern. Without any Atlantic blocking to speak of it's not going to be terribly different. Luckily for us the Pac is somewhat favorable or we'd torch here too. I'm just hoping we're all on the right side of the warm/cold line most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 We literally may be in our own little world. I would favor near to below after next week...but I envision a mild up near the 20-21 or so before another shot comes in. This is a pattern where at first it doesn't look cold or stormy to some...but you'll get a spurt of redevelopers if things work out. It's real close, but our lat and long may save us. I'm actually looking forward to the end of the month and beginning of Feb. That looks like a real interesting time...but I do not want to get too far ahead. I'd take '92-'93 over '93-'94 ANY day of the week...and I do mean, any...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 So is the big cold over for the N Plains and Midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 So is the big cold over for the N Plains and Midwest? No I do not think so...it is for the next 10 days though...the meat of the MLK cold shot is more lakes and NE...I'm not sure how cold that airmass will be yet. Might be run of the mill. If the Euro ensembles are correct, the retrograding PNA/EPO ridge will start to dump cold back into the northern plains versus just the lakes and SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 We literally may be in our own little world. I would favor near to below after next week...but I envision a mild up near the 20-21 or so before another shot comes in. This is a pattern where at first it doesn't look cold or stormy to some...but you'll get a spurt of redevelopers if things work out. It's real close, but our lat and long may save us. I'm actually looking forward to the end of the month and beginning of Feb. That looks like a real interesting time...but I do not want to get too far ahead. I'd take '92-'93 over '93-'94 ANY day of the week...and I do mean, any...... Not me but I won't quibble. 1993-94 was the best but 1992-93 was as epic as a feb/mar could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Messenger, take a look at the GFS op, I think it has a good handle on the types of storm tracks we may see. This doesn't equate to an exact forecast, but a plethora of storm tracks are possible. If we see the ridge pushing east than perhaps it is milder events. If the ridge is further west than we see Miller B or even a wave coming up from FL. Notice the overall trend though is to torch the plains. The EC ensembles really only have a couple of milder days near the 20th...lets hope it stays. It's not a cold pattern overall..but I agree with others that a reload seems to be coming. I still like the end of the month into early feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Messenger, take a look at the GFS op, I think it has a good handle on the types of storm tracks we may see. This doesn't equate to an exact forecast, but a plethora of storm tracks are possible. If we see the ridge pushing east than perhaps it is milder events. If the ridge is further west than we see Miller B or even a wave coming up from FL. Notice the overall trend though is to torch the plains. The EC ensembles really only have a couple of milder days near the 20th...lets hope it stays. It's not a cold pattern overall..but I agree with others that a reload seems to be coming. I still like the end of the month into early feb. Looks fine to me, is what it is. We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true). I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond. I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us. I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do. It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Looks fine to me, is what it is. We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true). I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond. I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us. I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do. It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year. Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 All midrange guidance has a snow threat days 5-6. The GFS and Euro handle the lead s/w differently, but both try to dig and sharpen the follow up wave pretty rapidly. The CMC has something too. Def track worthy. I can't get excited about the ouija board 10+ day ensemble games... as long as they don't look disastrous, I'm happy. Most (not all) threats materialize in the guidance much closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter LOL, that is not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter Its just started for the cape! I wouldn't say mediocre, I'd say not exciting. The "technical blizzard" of a week ago was kind of meh....if you live down here you know what I mean. It wasn't far from freezing for 75% of the event and the snow rates although nice weren't prolific. Poor measuring inflated some areas totals from what was a widespread 8-15" storm. with some lollis. It felt cheaper than a lot of the true 1 footers plus but that was due to the dry fluffy nature. Anyway it's been a good winter, just not exciting IMO. We're getting a lot of snow it's just coming in spritzes. This next batch may favor NNE and CNE with maybe one that gives us a shot. Later in the month could go either way but I like the depth of the trough for more "excitement" finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Looks fine to me, is what it is. We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true). I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond. I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us. I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do. It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year. The cold will reload and move south so I feel pretty good about that for cstl folks. If the EC is right, could be fun. Usually redevelopers have a high near Maine. If they cave a bit then that is different. Not an easy call with a sort of high stakes pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 OT but a quick thanks to those who take the time to discuss pattern possibilities in this thread...great discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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