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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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So looking at the long range, it strikes me that we are going to 1993-94 with more and spectacular warm spikes to 1992-93. I'm changing Leon to maya Angelou..lol who I watched deliver some words at Clinton's first inauguration on a very warm day. It was a great snow winter in February and March so naturally I'd take it.

As I look outside at my 12+ on the ground,

And the light snow falling down,

With 6 degrees farenheit all around...

Though the incoming monsoon makes me frown,

Now I know why the caged weenie sings...

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Euro ensembles look better than yesterday in the LR....we get a cold shot MLK weekend...then we may try and moderate for a day or two before the next -EPO/+PNA push as they retro the ridge a bit. You can clearly see the ridge retrograding betwene Jan 20 and 25. That's what I really like becuase it will spread the cold a little bit more west and the trough axis too which is good for storminess.

Looks great, Jerry really Maya Angelou? you need a pizzaz name.

I know...but it was so blah..lol. Maybe billary?

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It's definitely not the same pattern.

 

Who cares...the results won't be terribly different.

 

It's fun to go 50 pages deep talking about the nuances of model runs 10-15 days away but the meat of it is for the northeast we'll still be cold enough to snow a significant portion of the time but will walk the line maybe even more tightly than before.  No deep sustained multi week cold, no protracted warm shots either just more of the same.

 

Technical pattern may be different but only weenies and traders really care about that...the other 99.8% of the world will see it snowing some in between mild ups and think not much has changed.

 

After all....we still have the polar vortex to worry about, I heard it's basically a big winter hurricane.

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Who cares...the results won't be terribly different.

 

It's fun to go 50 pages deep talking about the nuances of model runs 10-15 days away but the meat of it is for the northeast we'll still be cold enough to snow a significant portion of the time but will walk the line maybe even more tightly than before.  No deep sustained multi week cold, no protracted warm shots either just more of the same.

 

Technical pattern may be different but only weenies and traders really care about that...the other 99.8% of the world will see it snowing some in between mild ups and think not much has changed.

 

After all....we still have the polar vortex to worry about, I heard it's basically a big winter hurricane.

agree.  Sensible weather is not favorable for snow lovers....we're not even close with these warm cutters every 4-6 days

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In fact, Steve texted me a COOP summary.

 

 

"In the year of thy Lord 1642, thou hast snow up to thy weenie in early January. A cutter costeth many lives of cattle along the Pawcatuck river, followed by snow up to they knickers in early February.."

 

 

Meh, you sent me one back. " It might be cold next week then again it might be warm, we could get a Miller B but it could miss. I am concerned about the EPO but the typhoon recurve has me thinking not to be. I will be sure 6 hours before" 

:lol: Haven't looked, but models must have turned south because the natives are at each other's throats.

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Who cares...the results won't be terribly different.

 

It's fun to go 50 pages deep talking about the nuances of model runs 10-15 days away but the meat of it is for the northeast we'll still be cold enough to snow a significant portion of the time but will walk the line maybe even more tightly than before.  No deep sustained multi week cold, no protracted warm shots either just more of the same.

 

Technical pattern may be different but only weenies and traders really care about that...the other 99.8% of the world will see it snowing some in between mild ups and think not much has changed.

 

After all....we still have the polar vortex to worry about, I heard it's basically a big winter hurricane.

 

I don't know about that. The pattern is different and it's too early to say that we will see the same results from a change in the pattern.

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agree.  Sensible weather is not favorable for snow lovers....we're not even close with these warm cutters every 4-6 days

 

We will be fine in a week or so.  This mild up was well advertised.

 

My only point is we're approaching page 50 and what's really changed?  It cools down around the 15th and that is when the threats begin again.  We knew that like 35 pages ago :)

 

What comes after that is probably a less cold version of what we had but with ample opportunity.  Sure it is definitely a different pattern but the results up here probably aren't terribly different.

 

Rest of the country different story.

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I don't know about that. The pattern is different and it's too early to say that we will see the same results from a change in the pattern.

 

 

Without any Atlantic blocking to speak of it's not going to be terribly different.   Luckily for us the Pac is somewhat favorable or we'd torch here too.  I'm just hoping we're all on the right side of the warm/cold line most of the time. 

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We literally may be in our own little world.  I would favor near to below after next week...but I envision a mild up near the 20-21 or so before another shot comes in. This is a pattern where at first it doesn't look cold or stormy to some...but you'll get a spurt of redevelopers if things work out.  It's real close, but our lat and long may save us. I'm actually looking forward to the end of the month and beginning of Feb. That looks like a real interesting time...but I do not want to get too far ahead.

I'd take '92-'93 over '93-'94 ANY day of the week...and I do mean, any......

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So is the big cold over for the N Plains and Midwest?

 

 

No I do not think so...it is for the next 10 days though...the meat of the MLK cold shot is more lakes and NE...I'm not sure how cold that airmass will be yet. Might be run of the mill.

 

If the Euro ensembles are correct, the retrograding PNA/EPO ridge will start to dump cold back into the northern plains versus just the lakes and SE Canada.

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We literally may be in our own little world.  I would favor near to below after next week...but I envision a mild up near the 20-21 or so before another shot comes in. This is a pattern where at first it doesn't look cold or stormy to some...but you'll get a spurt of redevelopers if things work out.  It's real close, but our lat and long may save us. I'm actually looking forward to the end of the month and beginning of Feb. That looks like a real interesting time...but I do not want to get too far ahead.

I'd take '92-'93 over '93-'94 ANY day of the week...and I do mean, any......

Not me but I won't quibble. 1993-94 was the best but 1992-93 was as epic as a feb/mar could be.

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Messenger, take a look at the GFS op, I think it has a good handle on the types of storm tracks we may see. This doesn't equate to an exact forecast, but a plethora of storm tracks are possible. If we see the ridge pushing east than perhaps it is milder events. If the ridge is further west than we see Miller B or even a wave coming up from FL. Notice the overall trend though is to torch the plains. The EC ensembles really only have a couple of milder days near the 20th...lets hope it stays. It's not a cold pattern overall..but I agree with others that a reload seems to be coming. I still like the end of the month into early feb.

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Messenger, take a look at the GFS op, I think it has a good handle on the types of storm tracks we may see. This doesn't equate to an exact forecast, but a plethora of storm tracks are possible. If we see the ridge pushing east than perhaps it is milder events. If the ridge is further west than we see Miller B or even a wave coming up from FL. Notice the overall trend though is to torch the plains. The EC ensembles really only have a couple of milder days near the 20th...lets hope it stays. It's not a cold pattern overall..but I agree with others that a reload seems to be coming. I still like the end of the month into early feb.

 

Looks fine to me, is what it is.  We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true).

 

I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond.  I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us. 

 

I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do.  It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year.

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Looks fine to me, is what it is. We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true).

I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond. I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us.

I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do. It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year.

Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter

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All midrange guidance has a snow threat days 5-6.  The GFS and Euro handle the lead s/w differently, but both try to dig and sharpen the follow up wave pretty rapidly.  The CMC has something too.  Def track worthy.  I can't get excited about the ouija board 10+ day ensemble games... as long as they don't look disastrous, I'm happy.  Most (not all) threats materialize in the guidance much closer in.

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Take out the Jan 3 storm and the Cape has had a mediocre winter

 

Its just started for the cape!

 

I wouldn't say mediocre, I'd say not exciting.  The "technical blizzard" of a week ago was kind of meh....if you live down here you know what I mean.  It wasn't far from freezing for 75% of the event and the snow rates although nice weren't prolific.  Poor measuring inflated some areas totals from what was a widespread 8-15" storm. with some lollis.    It felt cheaper than a lot of the true 1 footers plus but that was due to the dry fluffy nature.

 

Anyway it's been a good winter, just not exciting IMO.  We're getting a lot of snow it's just coming in spritzes.

 

This next batch may favor NNE and CNE with maybe one that gives us a shot.  Later in the month could go either way but I like the depth of the trough for more "excitement" finally.

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Looks fine to me, is what it is.  We'll have our shots and probably won't have the issue of being so cold events get squashed (opposite may be true).

 

I think NNE turns it on in this set of systems around MLK and beyond.  I could see them doing better and the Cape and the coastal areas not doing as well as they did in round 1 with the snow as we head towards the end of the month things may improve for all of us. 

 

I hate that there is no blocking though, but what can you do.  It snowed again this morning for the 2nd time this week and although it'll get torched away quickly at least it looks and feels like winter a lot of the time this year.

 

The cold will reload and move south so I feel pretty good about that for cstl folks. If the EC is right, could be fun. Usually redevelopers have a high near Maine. If they cave a bit then that is different. Not an easy call with a sort of high stakes pattern.

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