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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I lived in Randolph in 1978 and we had somewhere between 45-50 inches.  The bull's-eye was in that southwest corridor from sw of Boston to northern RI.

That's why your name IS 78Blizzard haha! I certainly didn't measure since I wasn't alive for a decade after but through the Booooouts of research and people's accounts and that I'm almost Positive it's eerie that I live here because the top of Diamond Hill 3 minutes from here in my town jackpotted, I think the Compact total was 40" + hence with that much snow you can tac on the 20% loss on compaction. I'm sure 50" was the storm Total. All the greatest storms of all time peep out a 50" Total from 1888 to 1993 and beyond.

I'm standing outside to see how long I can stand. We may not see 8 days of single digits at night almost in a row for 25 years. In going to miss this. Deeply.

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If we measured by modern standards that would have been a 60+ snowstorm.

 

Nothing like surpassing yearly climo snowfall total in one storm.  Some people forget that we had an 18 inch storm around January 19-20 that same year, all of which melted away in a torch before the Feb blizzard.  So there's hope beyond the coming torch.  We will be entering a favorable period if 1978 is any indicator.

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That's why your name IS 78Blizzard haha! I certainly didn't measure since I wasn't alive for a decade after but through the Booooouts of research and people's accounts and that I'm almost Positive it's eerie that I live here because the top of Diamond Hill 3 minutes from here in my town jackpotted, I think the Compact total was 40" + hence with that much snow you can tac on the 20% loss on compaction. I'm sure 50" was the storm Total. All the greatest storms of all time peep out a 50" Total from 1888 to 1993 and beyond.

I'm standing outside to see how long I can stand. We may not see 8 days of single digits at night almost in a row for 25 years. In going to miss this. Deeply.

According to Kocin and Uccellini in their Northeast Snowstorms Volumes, there was an area in northern RI that received in excess of 50 inches, so I'm sure that was your area.  Are you still standing? :lmao:

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I was just about to post that. Watch next Thursday. That one I think will deliver some snoiw.

 

Euro and GFS both have it in one form or another.

 

There is the likelihood of another warm up near the 20th. The ensembles are still AN in the 11-15 day, but the pattern also supports more storminess. We will ride the line it appears as very mild air is just west and southwest of us. It isn't a lock for cold and snow at all...but the GEFS did improve quite a bit.

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There is the likelihood of another warm up near the 20th. The ensembles are still AN in the 11-15 day, but the pattern also supports more storminess. We will ride the line it appears as very mild air is just west and southwest of us. It isn't a lock for cold and snow at all...but the GEFS did improve quite a bit.

The op Euro looks bad day 10 nationwide..It's funny because the 20th initially loooked like a very cold period.

 

How warm is warm around the 20th? Is ait another snowpack eraser?

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The op Euro looks bad day 10 nationwide..It's funny because the 20th initially loooked like a very cold period.

 

How warm is warm around the 20th? Is ait another snowpack eraser?

 

 

Just accept that the winter of 2013-2014 will be remembered as a winter that produced moderate snow amounts with a really crappy 'snow-on-the-ground'  history and a lot of rain..  A winter that had periods of alternating milder and cooler weather.  Yawn.

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The op Euro looks bad day 10 nationwide..It's funny because the 20th initially loooked like a very cold period.

 

How warm is warm around the 20th? Is ait another snowpack eraser?

 

Well there will be warmth everywhere. So it may sneak in here...not really a cutter..but just mild wx near the 20-21 before it cools again. It's a close call. The overall pattern though seems like it could be stormy and sort of yo-yoish.

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Well there will be warmth everywhere. So it may sneak in here...not really a cutter..but just mild wx near the 20-21 before it cools again. It's a close call. The overall pattern though seems like it could be stormy and sort of yo-yoish.

OT..but Palm Beach County in FL had 12-18 inches of rain overnight!! That is sick

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So overall it's not a perfect pattern, it does have potential. I don't really see much cold through the 22 or so, but there looks to be a rebuild of it in Canada waiting to come south around that time. That's about all you can say.

 

Edit: there will be a cold shot maybe near the 18-19th, but nothing like we just had.

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So looking at the long range, it strikes me that we are going to 1993-94 with more and spectacular warm spikes to 1992-93. I'm changing Leon to maya Angelou..lol who I watched deliver some words at Clinton's first inauguration on a very warm day. It was a great snow winter in February and March so naturally I'd take it.

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So looking at the long range, it strikes me that we are going to 1993-94 with more and spectacular warm spikes to 1992-93. I'm changing Leon to maya Angelou..lol who I watched deliver some words at Clinton's first inauguration on a very warm day. It was a great snow winter in February and March so naturally I'd take it.

 

We literally may be in our own little world.  I would favor near to below after next week...but I envision a mild up near the 20-21 or so before another shot comes in. This is a pattern where at first it doesn't look cold or stormy to some...but you'll get a spurt of redevelopers if things work out.  It's real close, but our lat and long may save us. I'm actually looking forward to the end of the month and beginning of Feb. That looks like a real interesting time...but I do not want to get too far ahead.

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Euro ensembles look better than yesterday in the LR....we get a cold shot MLK weekend...then we may try and moderate for a day or two before the next -EPO/+PNA push as they retro the ridge a bit. You can clearly see the ridge retrograding betwene Jan 20 and 25. That's what I really like becuase it will spread the cold a little bit more west and the trough axis too which is good for storminess.

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So looking at the long range, it strikes me that we are going to 1993-94 with more and spectacular warm spikes to 1992-93. I'm changing Leon to maya Angelou..lol who I watched deliver some words at Clinton's first inauguration on a very warm day. It was a great snow winter in February and March so naturally I'd take it.

More of the same for us, less cold maybe more frequent mild ups but also more frequent storm chances. No surprises really.

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Euro ensembles look better than yesterday in the LR....we get a cold shot MLK weekend...then we may try and moderate for a day or two before the next -EPO/+PNA push as they retro the ridge a bit. You can clearly see the ridge retrograding betwene Jan 20 and 25. That's what I really like becuase it will spread the cold a little bit more west and the trough axis too which is good for storminess.

Looks great, Jerry really Maya Angelou? you need a pizzaz name.

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