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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Although the banter has been fun, the chances of the 12z gefs/Gfs verifying long term is really low. Biases in a split flow aside I thought it was fine.

Another week roughly of crap then game back on

 

Might actually have a six day window of warmer weather before we get some snow once again on the 15-16th if the models in the 12z and 18z cycles are correct.

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Although the banter has been fun, the chances of the 12z gefs/Gfs verifying long term is really low. Biases in a split flow aside I thought it was fine.

Another week roughly of crap then game back on

 

Might actually have a six day window of warmer weather before we get some snow once again on the 15-16th if the models in the 12z and 18z cycles are correct.

Kevin's on the verge of wiping with said models.

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You guys flirt with something that seems akin to clinical paranoia in this snow ocd... You can't enjoy what you got, because the pattern might be warm .... 3 f weeks from now?!

gee wiz.

Tip, honestly I am glad you posted this, every time I do, I am called a Frigidaire. Still waiting for Ryans interpretation of the Euro and it's Ens. He was calling for torches and cutters when the GFS, GEFS came out at noon. I wondered if he still thinks that?
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Nice look on 18z gfs

Powderfreak you know you should "have some wintery chances in the next ten days" just be patient. It doesn't snow every day. Lol

Really its not thaaaat bad up there. Its just the ebb and flow , curious how did you do in 09-10 winter up there?

 

 

depending on what you like to use snow for, it is OK to pretty damn bad.  If backcountry skiing is your thing, you're screwed right now.  If snowmobiling is your thing, you're ok in some spots.  Nordic skiing?  It was OK until last weekend, and will be a while until the ice gets covered/trails fill in again.  It's definitely not great, but you have to make lemonade sometimes.

 

Went for a skate today on Lake Morey- awesome ice conditons and pretty cold.  Some says it's the best the ice has ever been (that gets said a lot).  Public Service announcement:  Then rental shop at Lake Morey is only open on weekends, and the ice is great. 

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fair weather weenie, lol

Lol I have a little bit of that Tolland guy in me but my weenie's been refined enough to enjoy a thaw too. Have to admit that car windows frozen in place, inside of car so cold that internal side of windows frost over, and car gear stuck in drive because of the cold gets a little old after a while.
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Lol I have a little bit of that Tolland guy in me but my weenie's been refined enough to enjoy a thaw too. Have to admit that car windows frozen in place, inside of car so cold that internal side of windows frost over, and car gear stuck in drive because of the cold gets a little old after a while.

better than tp stuck to your butt anyday
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Nice look on 18z gfs

Powderfreak you know you should "have some wintery chances in the next ten days" just be patient. It doesn't snow every day. Lol

Really its not thaaaat bad up there. Its just the ebb and flow , curious how did you do in 09-10 winter up there?

 

It is pretty bad compared to SNE as our storm before the ice event underperformed by half or worse in a lot of areas (a 10-14" forecast ended up being 5 or lower for some). The ice storm was the most significant event, followed by the most recent storm that missed south (We had -10F and 2" of snow compared to double digits in portions of MA). After that was the cutter of death and now a coming thaw/torch. In between we have had some nickel and dime events. Ginxy I should have clarified the punt being in terms of ski conditions. In my area we are still awaiting our first warning criteria snow. The most impressive event I have seen this winter in all honesty so far was the very brief greater than 3" per hour rate snow squall in November with 1.8" in 30 minutes. Pic of that I took:

post-139-0-64564300-1389325835_thumb.jpg

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I lived in Randolph in 1978 and we had somewhere between 45-50 inches.  The bull's-eye was in that southwest corridor from sw of Boston to northern RI.

 

If we measured by modern standards that would have been a 60+ snowstorm.

 

Anyway,

 

MARTHAS VNYRD  CLEAR      5   0  79 CALM      30.63F

 

And we've dipped to 7, yes cheap cold but impressive nonetheless.

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