CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 The ECMWF OP run doesn't indicate anything that would support the GEFs...however, we'll have to wait until the ensembles come out to really get a feel for how the Euro suite is going for beyond MLK weekend. Yeah nice to see the op hold serve. I like these model battles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 DT says toss the GFS after day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 real edge of your seat stuff....all the amatuer youtube forecasts i watched said bitter cold and lots of snow all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Meh, you sent me one back. " It might be cold next week then again it might be warm, we could get a Miller B but it could miss. I am concerned about the EPO but the typhoon recurve has me thinking not to be. I will be sure 6 hours before" The only forecast I gave was that I thought the GEFS were too aggressive with the warmth. It's possible we see a mild up and the EC caves a little, but not sold on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Don Beebe is the 12z GEFS. More like Scott Norwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Hacky sack on the common, golf on the cape, coeds in daisy dukes, awesome It's kind of sad... because a one afternoon taste? Egh, kinda no thanks in a way. The reason why is that it will get me nostalgic for the things I like about summer: gardening, disk golf, baseball, scantily clad women. It reminds me driving for 3 days to see a 3 hour concert, then driving 3 days home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 The only forecast I gave was that I thought the GEFS were too aggressive with the warmth. It's possible we see a mild up and the EC caves a little, but not sold on the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It's kind of sad... because a one afternoon taste? Egh, kinda no thanks in a way. The reason why is that it will get me nostalgic for the things I like about summer: gardening, disk golf, baseball, scantily clad women. It reminds me driving for 3 days to see a 3 hour concert, then driving 3 days home. Stones 1976 Philly, best drive down, best concert, worst drive home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 if the Euro 12Z is right , let the hype begin now, probably overdone but man Kevs 15 day torch is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Anxiously awaiting Ryans thoughts on the 12 Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 if the Euro ens is right , let the hype begin now, probably overdone but man Kevs 15 day torch is in trouble. I'm pretty sure they're not out that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Objectively, I'd rather the GEFS warm and EC ens cold vs vise versa. Hopefully that holds. back off the Ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I'm pretty sure they're not out that far yet. on my phone meant 12Z OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Knock knock who is there? Polar Polar who Polar Vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Maybe the GEFS is picking up better on the increasing sun angle? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 no He wasn't serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 He wasn't serious. Never know -- there's no rube filter for joining this or other public forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I've been seeing low - mid 40's forecast for Monday. Tip talking 60's. I can see why you are into Sales as a career -- you just entirely make things up. By the way folks, the 150 hour GFS really wasn't far off from a decent snow event for eastern NE. It seems the collective has spun off into another woeism phase -- tough teleconnector to recover from, and it's correlation is the inability to see positive aspects (speaking in terms of winter enthusiasm that is...). The Euro has a different idea, but still has a near miss. I dunno ... still see overall that the PNA rise at CPC and CDC may come along with an event or two, however poorly modeled any specific time/space may presently be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 if the Euro 12Z is right , let the hype begin now, probably overdone but man Kevs 15 day torch is in trouble. All of us are just worried..Noone has forecast anything just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I can see why you are into Sales as a career -- you just entirely make things up. By the way folks, the 150 hour GFS really wasn't far off from a decent snow event for eastern NE. It seems the collective has spun off into another woeism phase -- tough teleconnector to recover from, and it's correlation is the inability to see positive aspects (speaking in terms of winter enthusiasm that is...). The Euro has a different idea, but still has a near miss. I dunno ... still see overall that the PNA rise at CPC and CDC may come along with an event or two, however poorly modeled any specific time/space may presently be. What career are you in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 By the way folks, the 150 hour GFS really wasn't far off from a decent snow event for eastern NE. It seems the collective has spun off into another woeism phase -- are you late for everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 All of us are just worried..Noone has forecast anything just yet the collective us, Hippy Valley and the shirts team says what us worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It looks to me the GFS and it's ensembles are trying to pick up on a split flow pattern past day 8 and that may be what is causing the crazy warm look, in the absence of a strongly negative NAO the GFS and even the old AVN always had big problems being warm in split flow regimes in a -EPO in the medium or long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 are you late for everything? Pretty much ... ha -- 'course, then why aren't people talking about that? 5 pages of debbie downer intoned discussion, so if I am "late" there sure as shyster wasn't a lot of time given to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 It looks to me the GFS and it's ensembles are trying to pick up on a split flow pattern past day 8 and that may be what is causing the crazy warm look, in the absence of a strongly negative NAO the GFS and even the old AVN always had big problems being warm in split flow regimes in a -EPO in the medium or long range. someone is so worried he is pacing back and forth, over and over in front of his computer waiting for a Met to post about the Euro Ens, his carpet is shredding, the energy shakes are spilling all over, he is worrying a marathon of worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 What career are you in ? software ... and spending way too much time correcting all the ding-dong statements you post on line. D'oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Pretty much ... ha -- 'course, then why aren't people talking about that? 5 pages of debbie downer intoned discussion, so if I am "late" there sure as shyster wasn't a lot of time given to reality. Anytime I mention something I see that is positive I am told that is all I think, I never worry and I use sea scrolls to forecast with. why bother. that being said the Euro wants no part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Anytime I mention something I see that is positive I am told that is all I think, I never worry and I use sea scrolls to forecast with. why bother. that being said the Euro wants no part of itWe all worry for now until proof that worry was not needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Anytime I mention something I see that is positive I am told that is all I think, I never worry and I use sea scrolls to forecast with. why bother. that being said the Euro wants no part of it Sometimes the Pilgrim Journals are worth looking at and occasionally the Clovis cave drawings are a hit...we don't want to throw all our eggs in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Sometimes the Pilgrim Journals are worth looking at and occasionally the Clovis cave drawings are a hit...we don't want to throw all our eggs in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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