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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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The ECMWF OP run doesn't indicate anything that would support the GEFs...however, we'll have to wait until the ensembles come out to really get a feel for how the Euro suite is going for beyond MLK weekend.

 

Yeah nice to see the op hold serve. I like these model battles.

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Meh, you sent me one back. " It might be cold next week then again it might be warm, we could get a Miller B but it could miss. I am concerned about the EPO but the typhoon recurve has me thinking not to be. I will be sure 6 hours before"

The only forecast I gave was that I thought the GEFS were too aggressive with the warmth. It's possible we see a mild up and the EC caves a little, but not sold on the torch.

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Hacky sack on the common, golf on the cape, coeds in daisy dukes, awesome

 

It's kind of sad... because a one afternoon taste?    Egh, kinda no thanks in a way.  The reason why is that it will get me nostalgic for the things I like about summer: gardening, disk golf, baseball, scantily clad women.   

 

It reminds me driving for 3 days to see a 3 hour concert, then driving 3 days home.   

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It's kind of sad... because a one afternoon taste?    Egh, kinda no thanks in a way.  The reason why is that it will get me nostalgic for the things I like about summer: gardening, disk golf, baseball, scantily clad women.   

 

It reminds me driving for 3 days to see a 3 hour concert, then driving 3 days home.   

Stones 1976 Philly, best drive down, best concert, worst drive home

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I've been seeing low - mid 40's forecast for Monday. Tip talking 60's.

 

 

I can see why you are into Sales as a career -- you just entirely make things up.

 

By the way folks, the 150 hour GFS really wasn't far off from a decent snow event for eastern NE.   It seems the collective has spun off into another woeism phase -- tough teleconnector to recover from, and it's correlation is the inability to see positive aspects (speaking in terms of winter enthusiasm that is...).  The Euro has a different idea, but still has a near miss.  

 

I dunno ... still see overall that the PNA rise at CPC and CDC may come along with an event or two, however poorly modeled any specific time/space may presently be.   

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I can see why you are into Sales as a career -- you just entirely make things up.

 

By the way folks, the 150 hour GFS really wasn't far off from a decent snow event for eastern NE.   It seems the collective has spun off into another woeism phase -- tough teleconnector to recover from, and it's correlation is the inability to see positive aspects (speaking in terms of winter enthusiasm that is...).  The Euro has a different idea, but still has a near miss.  

 

I dunno ... still see overall that the PNA rise at CPC and CDC may come along with an event or two, however poorly modeled any specific time/space may presently be.   

What career are you in ?

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It looks to me the GFS and it's ensembles are trying to pick up on a split flow pattern past day 8 and that may be what is causing the crazy warm look, in the absence of a strongly negative NAO the GFS and even the old AVN always had big problems being warm in split flow regimes in a -EPO in the medium or long range.

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It looks to me the GFS and it's ensembles are trying to pick up on a split flow pattern past day 8 and that may be what is causing the crazy warm look, in the absence of a strongly negative NAO the GFS and even the old AVN always had big problems being warm in split flow regimes in a -EPO in the medium or long range.

someone is so worried he is pacing back and forth, over and over in front of his computer waiting for a Met to post about the Euro Ens, his carpet is shredding, the energy shakes are spilling all over, he is worrying a marathon of worry.

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Pretty much ...  ha -- 

 

'course, then why aren't people talking about that?   5 pages of debbie downer intoned discussion, so if I am "late" there sure as shyster wasn't a lot of time given to reality. 

Anytime I mention something I see that is positive I am told that is all I think, I never worry and I use sea scrolls to forecast with. why bother. that being said the Euro wants no part of it

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Anytime I mention something I see that is positive I am told that is all I think, I never worry and I use sea scrolls to forecast with. why bother. that being said the Euro wants no part of it

 

 

Sometimes the Pilgrim Journals are worth looking at and occasionally the Clovis cave drawings are a hit...we don't want to throw all our eggs in one basket.

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