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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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That is a total all-out 2011-2012 blowtorch on the GEFS with a Bering Vortex and PAC firehose ofmild air...it will be very interesting to see what the EC ensembles say at 12z.

 

The 06z GEFS were definitely caving toward the EC ensembles but they did a reversal...and then a lot more...at 12z today.

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That is a total all-out 2011-2012 blowtorch on the GEFS with a Bering Vortex and PAC firehose ofmild air...it will be very interesting to see what the EC ensembles say at 12z.

The 06z GEFS were definitely caving toward the EC ensembles but they did a reversal...and then a lot more...at 12z today.

Seems as if the GEFS are struggling with the MJO.
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Early spring ... ?  

 

Come on, it's January 9, not half through Meteorological winter.   But then again ... I have always hated that sort of perspective on matters.  Dates don't mean crap!  Nope, they don't.  I have seen it be 70F in every month.  The only thing I haven't seen is snow in June, July or August, but rumor has it, Tambora gave New Englanders a treat back in 1816.  

 

All dates really mean is 'you are most likely'

 

Where the hell was I going ...

 

Oh yeah, I almost hope that GEFs appeal holds, even though I don't see how it could with both the CPC and CDC showing a strong +PNA.  Something got a hold of the crack pipe, and since the +PNA has been in the tele cards for few deals longer I would argue that the 12z mean is suspect.  But, I like mild comfortable air, just as much as storminess.  I'd take either one.   It can't be exciting all the time, so you have to learn to find other aspects of the weather as entertaining ... life for that matter. 

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