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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Thank God it's the GFS op, but it completely bails on winter and brings on Spring...lol. Very LOL-tastic.

 

 

That would be an absolutely epic furnace for the the last week fo January...just non-stop 50s and 60s. Amazing how different the OP GFS has been vs Euro ensembles...that's like the 3rd or 4th OP GFS run that has done that.

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Thank God it's the GFS op, but it completely bails on winter and brings on Spring...lol. Very LOL-tastic.

It'll be interesting to see if Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo are right about the return of the polar vortex and frigid cold to the east. The GFS doesn't seem to support them, although it didn't a 10 days before the recent cold surge either.

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It'll be interesting to see if Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo are right about the return of the polar vortex and frigid cold to the east. The GFS doesn't seem to support them, although it didn't a 10 days before the recent cold surge either.

 

Well the GFS op loves to just shove ridges east and be way too progressive, but like Will said..it's done that for several runs now. That is certainly the bad side of things for winter wx fans, but that is to the extreme. Somehow my guess is the ensembles are not as warm. The GFS op actually started out colder than 00z too...it just because a furnace after day11.

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It's too bad the operational models are run past 240hrs.  Humongous forecast error towards the end of the runs.  Computing power might be better spent elsewhere.  And people wouldn't waste time looking at it.

 

Well, it's not completely unusable, but the solutions can be a little ridiculous. For instance they did get the magnitude of the cold spells down despite a warmer looking ensemble mean.

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To paraphrase LA Confidential..."they're pretty fukkin far from fine"

 

They're fine IMO.  Beginning to think though the needle will tilt towards more mild days as a percentage than this last pattern.  IE, we will see an eventual compromise as the GEFS begins to cave towards cold but we're going to walk the fence much more in SNE.

 

Leon may have fumbled and instead of trying to recover the ball rolled over and took a nap for a few weeks.

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