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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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Ginxy interior surprise on the euro next week...lol.

I'm surprised someone does not have a thread started.  It's been there for 2-3 days now on the models.

 

Steven looking to move N I see.  Lot of nice places along the eastern edge of the mountains up there.  Lovell, Stoneham, Bridgton, Bethel.  Seen some epic snow depths up there in my lifetime.4-5' in some seasons.  Lovell is great since you have Lake Kezar, Lake Kezar CC and you're 20-30 min from 4 ski areas (Shawnee, SR, Cranmore, Mt Abram) plus you have all the backcountry snowmobile trails.  Lots to do up there.

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I'm surprised someone does not have a thread started.  It's been there for 2-3 days now on the models.

 

Steven looking to move N I see.  Lot of nice places along the eastern edge of the mountains up there.  Lovell, Stoneham, Bridgton, Bethel.  Seen some epic snow depths up there in my lifetime.4-5' in some seasons.  Lovell is great since you have Lake Kezar, Lake Kezar CC and you're 20-30 min from 4 ski areas (Shawnee, SR, Cranmore, Mt Abram) plus you have all the backcountry snowmobile trails.  Lots to do up there.

Yep, have two friends up there with land and one with a house he is looking to unload in a couple of years in West Bethel. Fishing is fantastic too. here and now I mentioned Euro ens last night and got booted in the balls for it. time will tell.

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Will we have the cold or has that disappeared?

 

I think we will have a cold shot near MLK day. After that is when some questions arise, but looks cool overall. Again, it just depends on how far east that ridge axis is in the Plains. They are going to do a complete reversal of the pattern. They will torch in this +PNA pattern.

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I think we will have a cold shot near MLK day. After that is when some questions arise, but looks cool overall. Again, it just depends on how far east that ridge axis is in the Plains. They are going to do a complete reversal of the pattern. They will torch in this +PNA pattern.

I think Will mentioned this a week ago, its our turn, hopefully and from what I envision, the trough is just about where we want it. The cold is still there guys.

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Yep, have two friends up there with land and one with a house he is looking to unload in a couple of years in West Bethel. Fishing is fantastic too. here and now I mentioned Euro ens last night and got booted in the balls for it. time will tell.

 

Along the Androscoggin River or is it off the beaten path?  I think the annual snowfall up in that area is ~80-90"

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The end of the Euro ensembles were actually further west with the western ridge than 12z run...but the middle of the middle wasn't quite as good.

 

The GEFS ensembles caved in keeping the PV on our side....they had been retrograding so much of the PV that it got forced to the other side of the pole...but now it gets shoved back into Canada by the building ridge like the Euro had been showing. It's more obvious on the 06z GEFS...the 00z GEFS were still sort of trying to push it into eastern Asia.

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I don't trust any op models. of course we can look at that and think Heavy snow..but in reality we know it's not going to happen

The question was cold and here are your Ens 850s

16.01.2014 00 GMT   -10.0 °C     17.01.2014 00 GMT   -6 °C     18.01.2014 00 GMT   -8°C     19.01.2014 00 GMT   -10 °C
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It's not really a question of cold...it will avg below normal I think. My question is how stormy will it be. If it works out, it has the potential to be real good. However, if it's 150-200 miles off...then it's a much drier pattern. These details are not easy to discern right now, but if I had to guess...I don't think it's cold and dry. I hope.

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It's not really a question of cold...it will avg below normal I think. My question is how stormy will it be. If it works out, it has the potential to be real good. However, if it's 150-200 miles off...then it's a much drier pattern. These details are not easy to discern right now, but if I had to guess...I don't think it's cold and dry. I hope.

 

 

Brian1847362 and MPM just fainted.

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The end of the Euro ensembles were actually further west with the western ridge than 12z run...but the middle of the middle wasn't quite as good.

 

The GEFS ensembles caved in keeping the PV on our side....they had been retrograding so much of the PV that it got forced to the other side of the pole...but now it gets shoved back into Canada by the building ridge like the Euro had been showing. It's more obvious on the 06z GEFS...the 00z GEFS were still sort of trying to push it into eastern Asia.

That's a big win there.  If we can keep the PV on our side of the pole, we should be in good shape overall.

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The optomistic way to look at this longer range pattern is that New England holds far and away the best chance to remain colder and "wetter" than any where else in the country here. I hold the same concerns as Scott though if we have a pv lobe near baffin island or davis straights and the warm ridging pattern to the west taht trough alignment can easily be all off

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Thinking ahead, I sort of buy the EPO ridge moving west towards AK again.  This is more end of Jan beginning of Feb.

 

 

You can see how the GEFS cooled a bit...here's the D11 analogs...they are still a furnace in the Canada praries and plains, but colder for the GL and east coast:

 

compday_qd_Vw_RZ5bdd.gif

 

 

 

 

Its still not a great look rolling forward, but better than what it was yesterday. My guess is the MJO is not going to get robust...everytime it seems to want to, it fizzles. The roundy plots look kind of weak. I think we'll probably go back to the EPO ridge where the massive warm pool is absent of a strong outside influence....its hard to find a strong outside influence right now.

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You can see how the GEFS cooled a bit...here's the D11 analogs...they are still a furnace in the Canada praries and plains, but colder for the GL and east coast:

 

compday_qd_Vw_RZ5bdd.gif

 

 

 

 

Its still not a great look rolling forward, but better than what it was yesterday. My guess is the MJO is not going to get robust...everytime it seems to want to, it fizzles. The roundy plots look kind of weak. I think we'll probably go back to the EPO ridge where the massive warm pool is absent of a strong outside influence....its hard to find a strong outside influence right now.

 

It looks like the MJO itself may go east, but the convection and possible TCs in the west pac are still there so a confusing signal on the plots and hence why they may be in the COD. But yea...the warm pool and the overall hints of retrogression at the tail end of the ensembles make me think the EPO ridge will rise again. I just hope it's not cold and dry over the next two weeks until then...but again I'll take my chances and hope our lat and long are able to help us out with any redevelopers..or even waves coming up from FL.

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It looks like the MJO itself may go east, but the convection and possible TCs in the west pac are still there so a confusing signal on the plots and hence why they may be in the COD. But yea...the warm pool and the overall hints of retrogression at the tail end of the ensembles make me think the EPO ridge will rise again. I just hope it's not cold and dry over the next two weeks until then...but again I'll take my chances and hope our lat and long are able to help us out with any redevelopers..or even waves coming up from FL.

How long does it typically take for western pac TCs to have an influence on this side of the globe? (in any meaningful way). I understand there are obviously a lot of moving parts, but in general

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How long does it typically take for western pac TCs to have an influence on this side of the globe? (in any meaningful way). I understand there are obviously a lot of moving parts, but in general

 

Well if it recurves, usually 3-5 days or so once it gets east of Japan/Kamchatka. Sometimes as much as 5+ days. It just depends.

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Its still not a great look rolling forward, but better than what it was yesterday. My guess is the MJO is not going to get robust...everytime it seems to want to, it fizzles. The roundy plots look kind of weak. I think we'll probably go back to the EPO ridge where the massive warm pool is absent of a strong outside influence....its hard to find a strong outside influence right now.

Why is that map not a good look? Ridging out west....cooler east. What is it lacking?

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