weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 If EC ensembles are correct, Leon lives another day. If GEFS rules, he's done. I'm favoring euro with the loading ssta in the NPAC. The wise play is to favor neither and assume both will be partially right. Ie more of the same. The only question is are we more torchy with brief interludes of cold or are we cold with the random but repeated brief torch? I don't see either one dominating though. More of the same. I don't think you can blend this. It's either cold or a furnace. If you are choosing more of the same, it's ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I actually think the GEFS might be wrong. They are the only model suite support a medium MJO phase 6...whereas the rest are keeping it low amplitude phase 7 (Ukie maybe medium amplitude). The latter would favor the more poleward PNA/east-place EPO ridging....the former favors the flatter look fo the GEFS. I guess if we get a robust forcing from the tropical pacific liek the GEFS want to imply, then we could shuffle the pattern that way...but if not, all else equal, I would want to favor the more robust PNA/EPO look with the strong warm pool in the GOA. Hmm I actually wasn't really considering the phase diagram forecasts here with regards to the MJO, and I didnt see the gefs running into 6 everything looks in the circle, what shows that? these phase diagrams have really been useless this winter. Anyhow I've been using Ventrice's site to diagnose the Trop forcing across the central/east pacific right now and I think that is well in support of this PNA/colder pattern we have returning in the next week-10 days..After that we will see what happens but it seems most favorable tropical wise in the next 1-2 weeks. I'm not necessarily saying a torch for new england or the southeast beyond this stretch in the 10-15 day, it just definitely looks like the really cold air masses may be on their way out of NA, or a pv lobe hanging around baffin island The EC ensembles probably would match the weeklies fairly well. I don't care about cold, just that hopefully it's a nice pattern in terms of storms. My feeling is that the Plains warm significantly, but the polar shots are more for the northeast this time around. I don't think we will see the magnitude of the cold like we've had (although I can't rule out something very cold after the 20th), but it sort of looks more "polar" in nature instead of "arctic" if that makes any sense. However, if you take the EC...that is a polar plunge into the northeast US...I just don't know if it will be like what the EC models. Scott we are pretty much in agreement I think. I'm wondering if the final stretch of Jan really starts to warm up, but I could see new england hang on to more "polar" type cold shots even then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I think we have to toss the Gefs 110%. Just have had a bad winter. Korean ens have been good if anyone follows them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Hmm I actually wasn't really considering the phase diagram forecasts here with regards to the MJO, and I didnt see the gefs running into 6 everything looks in the circle, what shows that? these phase diagrams have really been useless this winter. Anyhow I've been using Ventrice's site to diagnose the Trop forcing across the central/east pacific right now and I think that is well in support of this PNA/colder pattern we have returning in the next week-10 days..After that we will see what happens but it seems most favorable tropical wise in the next 1-2 weeks. I'm not necessarily saying a torch for new england or the southeast beyond this stretch in the 10-15 day, it just definitely looks like the really cold air masses may be on their way out of NA, or a pv lobe hanging around baffin island Scott we are pretty much in agreement I think. I'm wondering if the final stretch of Jan really starts to warm up, but I could see new england hang on to more "polar" type cold shots even then.. I got the GEFS ones from the CPC site: I could definitely see a warming right near the end of the month, but the GEFS aren't even showing that, they are showing a much much milder pattern for just about everyone by Jan 20th, so a lot sooner...New England is prob still average to perhaps slightly below...but the plains/midwest/lakes are all furnacing by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I don't think you can blend this. It's either cold or a furnace. If you are choosing more of the same, it's ECMWF. If the euro is right we will lean cold with some warm shots (similar to now but maybe not as extreme) if the Gfs is right probably more even with both warm and cold periods of equal intensity and duration.... In reality both probably are indicating that areas well west and southwest of us won't be as bad off this time but we should still do okay. My gut days is powder freak and dendrite cash in later this month while i get wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I gotta think you tone back the GFS and GEFS a bit. I'm not so sure they have the tropical PAC down and if they don't..then all bets are off. So my concern I guess is if they are somewhat correct..we may lose the cold in Canada and have more marginal air to work with. That being said, I like the overall look for now in our neck of the woods. It definitely could be a Miller B type pattern as long as the ridge axis out west is not too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I just have a feeling we are either going all in one way or all in the other way. That is essentially what's being advertised, and truthfully may not be far from a final outcome. It would he nice to have both pieces of guidance be showing favorable things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I got the GEFS ones from the CPC site: I could definitely see a warming right near the end of the month, but the GEFS aren't even showing that, they are showing a much much milder pattern for just about everyone by Jan 20th, so a lot sooner...New England is prob still average to perhaps slightly below...but the plains/midwest/lakes are all furnacing by that point. Yeah the GEFS erase the belows in the Great lakes/new england by the 23rd and that seems quick.. I just think they are hinting at where we might go with this. As for that mjo/tropical stuff, im not sure exactly where we head by the end of jan but I'm pretty sure it will be out of the central/pacific/SA which is where we are heading accoridng to Ventrice's CHI plots. Im not saying the gefs from what you show are right, but they seem to agree with roundy's prediction here perhaps? (around the 21st) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Yeah the GEFS erase the belows in the Great lakes/new england by the 23rd and that seems quick.. I just think they are hinting at where we might go with this. As for that mjo/tropical stuff, im not sure exactly where we head by the end of jan but I'm pretty sure it will be out of the central/pacific/SA which is where we are heading accoridng to Ventrice's CHI plots. Im not saying the gefs from what you show are right, but they seem to agree with roundy's prediction here perhaps? (around the 21st) See I thought looking at that and his week 1 and week 2 850/OLR products argues for more ridging further west and not such lower heights into AK. Basically more Euro or further west with ridging? You could kind iof see how the EC wanted to raise heights a bit further west if you extrapolate past hr 360. If look at the GEFS...you can also see that Kamchatka trough reform and possible argue for a retro of that ridge too. Maybe it is something like flooding the CONUS with warmth before ridging shuffles and reforms further west. Just talking out loud. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/wavemaps/weeks1to2.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The wise play is to favor neither and assume both will be partially right. Ie more of the same. The only question is are we more torchy with brief interludes of cold or are we cold with the random but repeated brief torch? I don't see either one dominating though. More of the same. I agree , just did my next six week outlook from the 19th on, basically 2 weeks of cold and snow chances, 7-10 day thaw then back to normal then a snowy cold end to Feb. Lets see how it plays out. I do think it will be stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 See I thought looking at that and his week 1 and week 2 850/OLR products argues for more ridging further west and not such lower heights into AK. Basically more Euro or further west with ridging? You could kind iof see how the EC wanted to raise heights a bit further west if you extrapolate past hr 360. If look at the GEFS...you can also see that Kamchatka trough reform and possible argue for a retro of that ridge too. Maybe it is something like flooding the CONUS with warmth before ridging shuffles and reforms further west. Just talking out loud. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/wavemaps/weeks1to2.png Yeah I see what you are saying and that would make sense if roundy/gefs were correct.. Hadnt looked at roundy or noticed that gefs mjo forecast when I made my original post. Original post was based off of where we are at now in the trops, guessing where we would be heading..and also noting the stratosphere forecasts. Notice the shift in alignment from the stable NA-Siberia axis we've seen early winter , I am assuming that 360hr panel is a good reflection of more north pac troughing and the pna ridging possibly spilling over more of NA, but I could be wrong there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Yeah I see what you are saying and that would make sense if roundy/gefs were correct.. Hadnt looked at roundy or noticed that gefs mjo forecast when I made my original post. Original post was based off of where we are at now in the trops, guessing where we would be heading..and also noting the stratosphere forecasts. Notice the shift in alignment from the stable NA-Siberia axis we've seen early winter , I am assuming that 360hr panel is a good reflection of more north pac troughing and the pna ridging possibly spilling over more of NA, but I could be wrong there. stratcast.png I honestly don't know what guidance is right or wrong...just trying to see why one set is showing a solution vs another and seeing if it makes sense. I did notice the 50mb vortex definitely moves east from where it is now. As if 00z, I would guess the GEFS may be a bit too progressive with the CONUS warmth, but we also have a +NAO which if aligned right could help assist in bring warmth east too. So a few things to watch out for, but overall for SNE..I still like the look. We may not have the cold shots like we've had, but seems like it could be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Actually a P6-7 blend wouldn't shock me here. http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I honestly don't know what guidance is right or wrong...just trying to see why one set is showing a solution vs another and seeing if it makes sense. I did notice the 50mb vortex definitely moves east from where it is now. As if 00z, I would guess the GEFS may be a bit too progressive with the CONUS warmth, but we also have a +NAO which if aligned right could help assist in bring warmth east too. So a few things to watch out for, but overall for SNE..I still like the look. We may not have the cold shots like we've had, but seems like it could be active. Yeah, this is a very tricky forecast time frame end of Jan into early Feb. Not sure what to do with it either, but my initial reaction is to support the over-all conus/canada warm up late jan after our arctic shot for MLK weekend..The East Coast would be last in line for any torching and I could see it linger cool though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Yeah, this is a very tricky forecast time frame end of Jan into early Feb. Not sure what to do with it either, but my initial reaction is to support the over-all conus/canada warm up late jan after our arctic shot for MLK weekend..The East Coast would be last in line for any torching and I could see it linger cool though. Of course it's easy for me to just discuss and not be in the hot seat like you are. FWIW, the GEFS really warm up the GL region and then sort of redevelop troughing while really trying to spike ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Chris what links do you usually use on Mike's site? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Hasn't using MJO to predict been fail all season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Hasn't using MJO to predict been fail all season? No not necessarily. I also don't think anyone is using it directly to forecast, but you can't just ignore it. It's all part of the puzzle. You shouldn't completely hug it, but you cannot just ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 No not necessarily. I also don't think anyone is using it directly to forecast, but you can't just ignore it. It's all part of the puzzle. You shouldn't completely hug it, but you cannot just ignore it. Not saying thats saying it has continually shown amplitude only to quickly COD, any forecaster who tried to use it in the equation had trouble, sort of like all the +AO nonsense spilled in Nov causing torching in the entire USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 And yes shades drawn for a while. Maybe take a peek and poke your head out after the 15th, but I wouldn't open them completely until after the 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Gonna be a long long 10 days the Euro says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Gonna be a long long 10 days the Euro says Nothing new here. There will be a cold shot after the 15th, but it's pointless as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 May have time to get some gardening done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Plenty of cause for consternation. Fingers crosses that GEFS aren't scoring a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Chris what links do you usually use on Mike's site? Just curious. http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/tropical-waves.html If you scroll down a bit you will find the break down of the tropical state via Current Veloctity potential 200hpa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 When your balls freeze together instantly on perspiration, its time for a slight warmup......Baby powder can only do so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 No wonder bob says the cold is NBD. EWB 23 PVD 21 PYM 21 OWD 21 Magical TAN 27 Is that a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well , at least picnic tables will snow in active pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 No wonder bob says the cold is NBD. EWB 23 PVD 21 PYM 21 OWD 21 Magical TAN 27 Is that a joke? 15.2 here. Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 At least we have this Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 27m ECWMF usual error is being to slow with southern branch. Big ticket weather woes develop next week. storm day 6-8 no slouch either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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