weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Well the temperatures this wine have been of the best of my lifetime - No reason to complain there. But 18.75" of snow? What the heck is that. The North Shore got that +5 in 1 storm and we've had 4 measurable storms so far. I Do LOVE how the weather is the#1 National News story every day. I CAN'T GET MORE FAMOUS THAN JUSTIN BIEBER BUT POLAR VORTEX CAN!!!! In my mind you're more famous! But re snow: what is your average to this date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Man what a cutter this weekend. 50's to Dendrite!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Op Euro looks like pretty quick retrun to winter 15h on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Op Euro looks like pretty quick retrun to winter 15h on Slightly above normal verbatim 1/15-17, then just beyond the range around 1/18 we freeze. Scooter ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Slightly above normal verbatim 1/15-17, then just beyond the range around 1/18 we freeze. Scooter ftw? You guys are making this too hard, all in all the longer range models have been terrific in pointing in the very general and often correct way we're going. You watch the OP GFS won't be far off with the first chill down occurring in about 6 days and a threat around 1/15 Looks to me like the mountains may make out better this next round too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 test8.gif That looks pretty dang amplified. I like how the ridge crests inside the west coast as that allows for a good coastal track with some amplitude. Am I correct in this and in the assumption that the building West and North Atlantic blocking will start to slow down storms. Also, do you think the PNA and NA ridges are about to connect? I can't see how that pattern isn't both cold AND stormy. Man.... and I'll be home from Jan 17-26 Could be quite the stretch. Looks like my trip to London Jan 26-31 might be cold and snowy too based on that pattern progression. Perhaps the Atlantic has had its disco nap and is finally coming to the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 test8.gif Nice look, and best is CMC with the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Nice look, and best is CMC with the block Yeah cmc is sweet. I wish it was a better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 That looks pretty dang amplified. I like how the ridge crests inside the west coast as that allows for a good coastal track with some amplitude. Am I correct in this and in the assumption that the building West and North Atlantic blocking will start to slow down storms. Also, do you think the PNA and NA ridges are about to connect? I can't see how that pattern isn't both cold AND stormy. Man.... and I'll be home from Jan 17-26 Could be quite the stretch. Looks like my trip to London Jan 26-31 might be cold and snowy too based on that pattern progression. Perhaps the Atlantic has had its disco nap and is finally coming to the party? Yes, it's a good looking pattern upcoming. Cold, yes. Snowy, probably. As far as slowing down storms, I think we play wait and see on that. The PNA ridging will promote bringing the cold back in here as well as a better storm track overall but we can still get cutters without help. Nice look, and best is CMC with the block Yeah, way overdone more than likely. Notice the GFS and Euro are more East based with the blocking. Not optimal but I don't think it hurts us. Yeah cmc is sweet. I wish it was a better model. Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Kind of funny how the EC is coldest of all ensembles. The GEFS bring the PV to the other side of the pole. We'll have to watch how this transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 CMC has the best looking Atlantic...but the PAC isn't that great...its pretty flat with the ridge out there. Euro ensembles are on steroids this AM with the PNA ridging poking up into the Arctic Ocean. They actually poke to the Siberian Coast on the other side. Don't count on any Atlantic help...it isn't coming outside of a flukey transient block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Kind of funny how the EC is coldest of all ensembles. The GEFS bring the PV to the other side of the pole. We'll have to watch how this transpires. GEFS aren't even that cold...or good looking. They have a flatter PNA ridge beyond 276-300h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 CMC has the best looking Atlantic...but the PAC isn't that great...its pretty flat with the ridge out there. Euro ensembles are on steroids this AM with the PNA ridging poking up into the Arctic Ocean. They actually poke to the Siberian Coast on the other side. Don't count on any Atlantic help...it isn't coming outside of a flukey transient block. Well if we have to have best pacific, we can take cautious comfort that the best guidance is showing it. Let's hope they're right because I'm not impressed with GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 GEFS aren't even that cold...or good looking. They have a flatter PNA ridge beyond 276-300h. Yeah they sort of bring PAC garbage east. The op runs have showed it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Yeah they sort of bring PAC garbage east. The op runs have showed it as well. Thankfully they have been terrible recently....they got taken to Ray's beast of a man in the woodshed over the past 2 weeks by the EC ensmebles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Thankfully they have been terrible recently....they got taken to Ray's beast of a man in the woodshed over the past 2 weeks by the EC ensmebles. Yeah hopefully. I could see us sort of living in our own little winter world while everyone west of the MS river is enjoying Tanuary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 GFS has an impressive low level jet Saturday night. Might be looking at a decent wind event if we can mix some of that down..Maybe some gust to 50 if things break right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Two torching cutters on the Euro. Even the glen might be wiped out. Saturday finishes me off probably so I don't care if I have endure another as long as we get cold after the 15th. Snow is scarce down here near Poughkeepsie where I am today. Interesting band across the Mid Hudson valley toward nw CT where that disturbance came through the other day. Up to two inches of powder fell in that narrow belt. GFS has an impressive low level jet Saturday night. Might be looking at a decent wind event if we can mix some of that down..Maybe some gust to 50 if things break right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Two torching cutters on the Euro. Even the glen might be wiped out. Saturday finishes me off probably so I don't care if I have endure another as long as we get cold after the 15th. Snow is scarce down here near Poughkeepsie where I am today. Interesting band across the Mid Hudson valley toward nw CT where that disturbance came through the other day. Up to two inches of powder fell in that narrow belt. I was in it. Jacked with 2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Yeah they sort of bring PAC garbage east. The op runs have showed it as well. GEFS aren't even that cold...or good looking. They have a flatter PNA ridge beyond 276-300h. I think we are ultimately heading this way as this north pac regime continues to gradually shift from its early winter state. We have a nice cold period coming up by the end of next week but that is just another step in the process in my opinion with the aleutian trough and PNA ridge. Canada will be gradually warming up as that ridging stretches across.. You can see the alignment in the stratosphere shifting with time through the 11-15 day, with the euro ens slower to do so hence why they look a little better at the end still. The GEFS could be rushing this which wouldnt surprise me... Also, New England would be the last in line for warmer weather if this shift is taking place.. This isnt a forecast for the rest of winter by the way, just trying to figure out what might happen heading into early feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I think we are ultimately heading this way as this north pac regime continues to gradually shift from its early winter state. We have a nice cold period coming up by the end of next week but that is just another step in the process in my opinion with the aleutian trough and PNA ridge. Canada will be gradually warming up as that ridging stretches across.. You can see the alignment in the stratosphere shifting with time through the 11-15 day, with the euro ens slower to do so hence why they look a little better at the end still. The GEFS could be rushing this which wouldnt surprise me... Also, New England would be the last in line for warmer weather if this shift is taking place.GEFS is only flatter at day 15, a switch to a neg AO and the cold being centered in Eastern Canada seems likely. Probably a great pattern for NE snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I think we are ultimately heading this way as this north pac regime continues to gradually shift from its early winter state. We have a nice cold period coming up by the end of next week but that is just another step in the process in my opinion with the aleutian trough and PNA ridge. Canada will be gradually warming up as that ridging stretches across.. You can see the alignment in the stratosphere shifting with time through the 11-15 day, with the euro ens slower to do so hence why they look a little better at the end still. The GEFS could be rushing this which wouldnt surprise me... Also, New England would be the last in line for warmer weather if this shift is taking place. I actually think the GEFS might be wrong. They are the only model suite support a medium MJO phase 6...whereas the rest are keeping it low amplitude phase 7 (Ukie maybe medium amplitude). The latter would favor the more poleward PNA/east-place EPO ridging....the former favors the flatter look fo the GEFS. I guess if we get a robust forcing from the tropical pacific liek the GEFS want to imply, then we could shuffle the pattern that way...but if not, all else equal, I would want to favor the more robust PNA/EPO look with the strong warm pool in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I think we are ultimately heading this way as this north pac regime continues to gradually shift from its early winter state. We have a nice cold period coming up by the end of next week but that is just another step in the process in my opinion with the aleutian trough and PNA ridge. Canada will be gradually warming up as that ridging stretches across.. You can see the alignment in the stratosphere shifting with time through the 11-15 day, with the euro ens slower to do so hence why they look a little better at the end still. The GEFS could be rushing this which wouldnt surprise me... Also, New England would be the last in line for warmer weather if this shift is taking place.. This isnt a forecast for the rest of winter by the way, just trying to figure out what might happen heading into early feb The EC ensembles probably would match the weeklies fairly well. I don't care about cold, just that hopefully it's a nice pattern in terms of storms. My feeling is that the Plains warm significantly, but the polar shots are more for the northeast this time around. I don't think we will see the magnitude of the cold like we've had (although I can't rule out something very cold after the 20th), but it sort of looks more "polar" in nature instead of "arctic" if that makes any sense. However, if you take the EC...that is a polar plunge into the northeast US...I just don't know if it will be like what the EC models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I actually think the GEFS might be wrong. They are the only model suite support a medium MJO phase 6...whereas the rest are keeping it low amplitude phase 7 (Ukie maybe medium amplitude). The latter would favor the more poleward PNA/east-place EPO ridging....the former favors the flatter look fo the GEFS. I guess if we get a robust forcing from the tropical pacific liek the GEFS want to imply, then we could shuffle the pattern that way...but if not, all else equal, I would want to favor the more robust PNA/EPO look with the strong warm pool in the GOA. Roundy's stuff seemed to favor the EC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I'm pretty sure the bias corrected GEFS MJO progs have been the worst this winter. In fact, I am very sure they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The analog dates on the GEFS are an absolute furnace for most of the country and most of Canada. The EC ensembles are almost totally the opposite...they are quite cold for at least central and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The analog dates on the GEFS are an absolute furnace for most of the country and most of Canada. The EC ensembles are almost totally the opposite...they are quite cold for at least central and eastern areas. If EC ensembles are correct, Leon lives another day. If GEFS rules, he's done.I'm favoring euro with the loading ssta in the NPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 If EC ensembles are correct, Leon lives another day. If GEFS rules, he's done. I'm favoring euro with the loading ssta in the NPAC. The one interesting part of the GEFS analog dates is the top 3 dates aren't furnaces but rather quite cold...they are Jan 17, 1961, Jan 19, 1965, and Jan 6, 2003....but the rest of the dates overwhelm the composite into a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 If EC ensembles are correct, Leon lives another day. If GEFS rules, he's done. I'm favoring euro with the loading ssta in the NPAC. The wise play is to favor neither and assume both will be partially right. Ie more of the same. The only question is are we more torchy with brief interludes of cold or are we cold with the random but repeated brief torch? I don't see either one dominating though. More of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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