Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Cold skate, great workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Polar Vortex hype > sun angle hype, you will be seeing the vortex again if Euro GEFS are right Yes we will...polar vortex will trend worse than "derecho" after the DC event that summer if/when we see the next arctic outbreak later this month. Its looking more likely that we will. At the very least, we're going to have legit cold back in the northern tier at least...and a good pattern for amplifying shortwaves in the east. Potential for Miller Bs is there. 2nd half of Jan and first half of Feb seems to be a prime period for good Miller Bs historically. Lack of blocking in the Atlantic will make it harder to get the high end ones though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet. Should I be concerned for my life or does this mean snow chances increase?? ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Should I be concerned for my life or does this mean snow chances increase?? ha ha ha Combined with the polar vortex and increasing sun angle this CME is bad bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Combined with the polar vortex and increasing sun angle this CME is bad bad news. ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 ha ha ha hopefully it erases whatever computer the NAM is run on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 X-FLARE: Giant sunspot AR1944 erupted on Jan 7th at approximately 1832 UT, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. First-look coronagraph images from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft appear to show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site. If so, the CME is almost certainly heading for Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data arrive from the NASA-ESA Heliophysics Fleet. I'll be in Stowe Thursday-Sunday... would love to get some aurora!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 So we looking at a wash out for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 hopefully it erases whatever computer the NAM is run on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 So we looking at a wash out for the weekend? Sunday looks dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Will, Do we see any sign that the Atlantic will improve? Is there any sign that there may be a slighly negative NAO by the time we get this resurge of cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Will, Do we see any sign that the Atlantic will improve? Is there any sign that there may be a slighly negative NAO by the time we get this resurge of cold air? It is not looking like Atlantic blocking will establish itself in the near future. The only blocking over there would be transient east-based blocks. There are some signs that blocking could occur later in the season. This happened in late Feb and Mar 2005 and also in 1984 after mostly +NAO conditions. However, other -EPO/+NAO years such as 1993-1994 and 1960-1961 did not see Atlantic blocking form for any sustained period all the way to the end of the winter. As those latter two example show, you can still have big winters without it...though you largely need to rely on the excellent Pacific pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'll be in Stowe Thursday-Sunday... would love to get some aurora!!! That's what I'm buckin' for, too. I saw some earlier in the year from here in Ayer as a very faint green tinted glow, and that was off an M6, so seeing as X1 is whatever order(s) of magnitude more intense... A night like tonight would be ideal, but yeah should reach Terran space later Thursday. You'll be in a great spot up there! Man, if it is clear you should hit a mountain summit somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Agreed. How much do you have on the season? I'm at 28.3 but truthfully that's from memory...haven't really been meticulous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I'm at 28.3 but truthfully that's from memory...haven't really been meticulous. Yea, Boston def. has a greater sf anomaly than does the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 That's what I'm buckin' for, too. I saw some earlier in the year from here in Ayer as a very faint green tinted glow, and that was off an M6, so seeing as X1 is whatever order(s) of magnitude more intense... A night like tonight would be ideal, but yeah should reach Terran space later Thursday. You'll be in a great spot up there! Man, if it is clear you should hit a mountain summit somewhere... They have this bizarre system, its kinda like the Richter scale. X1 is uncommon, but not earth-shattering. Go see what happened in the 1800's if you want scary, there was a storm that knocked out all telegraph lines across the nation. There were aurora in Hawaii and Honduras. Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 1 to 8 ångströms X-rays near Earth, as measured by the GOES satellites. Each X-ray class category is divided into a logarithmic scale from 1 to 9. For example: B1 to B9, C1 to C9, M1 to M9. An X2 flare is twice as powerful as an X1 flare, and is four times more powerful than an M5 flare. The X-class class category is slightly different and doesn't stop at X9 but continues on. The strongest solar flare ever detected by a GOES satellite was a X28 solar flare which occurred in November 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 it's interesting that our last system actually had a well timed block. frankly, it waddled a little too far S... which had a trickle down affect on the PV, forcing the system SE of the BM. am I looking at this correctly? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Sunday looks dry. Well that's good, at least we'll be able to get some yard work done..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don S is chuckin em for cold to return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don S is chuckin em for cold to return It's amazing how fast things turn. Some years when it's warm the ensembles cool us but it collapses quickly. This one is the polar opposite. We may pile up some nice negatives for the month and all BOS needs is another 25 inches to be Leontine...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's amazing how fast things turn. Some years when it's warm the ensembles cool us but it collapses quickly. This one is the polar opposite. We may pile up some nice negatives for the month and all BOS needs is another 25 inches to be Leontine...lol. Congrats 000NOUS41 KBOX 072001 PNSBOX CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-082200- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 300 PM EST TUE JAN 07 2014 ...BLIZZARD OF 2014 IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE REACHED AT FOUR LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE STORM THAT OCCURRED ON JANUARY 2 AND 3. THUS IT IS SAFE TO CALL THIS A BLIZZARD. THE STRICT DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS THAT FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW REDUCES VISIBILITY TO BELOW 1/4 MILE ALONG WITH WINDS THAT FREQUENTLY GUST TO 35 MPH OR MORE... AND THAT THESE CONDITIONS ARE THE PREDOMINANT REPORTED CONDITION FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE HOURS. WHEN REVIEWING WHETHER A PARTICULAR OBSERVATION LOCATION HAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WE COUNTED VISIBILITIES EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE SINCE THAT IS QUITE LOW FOR AN AUTOMATED VISIBILITY SENSOR TO BE ABLE TO DETECT. AT HYANNIS...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 543 AM TO 849 AM ON JANUARY 3. AT MARSHFIELD...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 555 PM JANUARY 2 TO 635 AM ON JANUARY 3. AT FALMOUTH...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 335 AM TO 855 AM ON JANUARY 3. AT NANTUCKET...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 729 AM TO 418 PM ON JANUARY 3. AT NANTUCKET...THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WERE MORE FROM BLOWING SNOW THAN FALLING SNOW WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER CEILINGS THAT WERE REPORTED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT CHATHAM AND PROVINCETOWN BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WERE NOT AS PERSISTENT. $$ GAF/RLG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I thought the BOX blizzard warnings were solid in that storm last week. They didn't over-extend them even though it was probably tempting. I do like remaining fairly strict on such criteria. Cape Ann fell a bit short (at least where we have obs), but not by much and there's a good chance they verifed right on the water. Overall they did quite well and the snowflal forecasts were pretty good in that storm as well. Going with the more 15 to 1 ratios (and high in spots). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 I thought the BOX blizzard warnings were solid in that storm last week. They didn't over-extend them even though it was probably tempting. I do like remaining fairly strict on such criteria. Cape Ann fell a bit short (at least where we have obs), but not by much and there's a good chance they verifed right on the water. Overall they did quite well and the snowflal forecasts were pretty good in that storm as well. Going with the more 15 to 1 ratios (and high in spots).Absolutely, there were rumbles about them using the B word but good job, Did Upton verify on LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It's amazing how fast things turn. Some years when it's warm the ensembles cool us but it collapses quickly. This one is the polar opposite. We may pile up some nice negatives for the month and all BOS needs is another 25 inches to be Leontine...lol. We'll see what happens the last 2 weeks of this month or so...the snow (or lack thereof) will determine how this month is remembered. If we get another decent sized evnt or better, then I think this will be looked at as among the better Januarys in recent years...but if its "wasted cold" like the end of January 2013 (before the February blitz happened), then the month will be remembered as merely a cold but relatively pedestrian month in our neck of the woods. The 1/2-3 storm though will always be remembered for the historic cold...you aren't going to see heavy snow and temps at 0F for a long time on the coastal plain of SNE. The big PNA/EPO ridge shown on the ECMWF ensmebles is very encouraging. EPO ridge is actually slightly displaced east which usually is very good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 We'll see what happens the last 2 weeks of this month or so...the snow (or lack thereof) will determine how this month is remembered. If we get another decent sized evnt or better, then I think this will be looked at as among the better Januarys in recent years...but if its "wasted cold" like the end of January 2013 (before the February blitz happened), then the month will be remembered as merely a cold but relatively pedestrian month in our neck of the woods. The 1/2-3 storm though will always be remembered for the historic cold...you aren't going to see heavy snow and temps at 0F for a long time on the coastal plain of SNE. The big PNA/EPO ridge shown on the ECMWF ensmebles is very encouraging. EPO ridge is actually slightly displaced east which usually is very good for us. Ridging also very evident in the GEFS and GGEM means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Corey's having a rough winter....what's your departure in temps and snow Corey? Well the temperatures this wine have been of the best of my lifetime - No reason to complain there. But 18.75" of snow? What the heck is that. The North Shore got that +5 in 1 storm and we've had 4 measurable storms so far. I Do LOVE how the weather is the#1 National News story every day. I CAN'T GET MORE FAMOUS THAN JUSTIN BIEBER BUT POLAR VORTEX CAN!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't worry, atlantic blocking will establish in april and may and june. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Don't worry, atlantic blocking will establish in april and may and june. Seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Seriously... Hopefully a weak Nino ensures drizzle through July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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