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January 2014 pattern discussion


CapturedNature

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I don't hate the New Year potential...it doesn't look overwhelming right now, but a lot of ensemble members have a clipper-esque system. Those would obviously be difficult to track more than a few days out. As we saw with last Tuesday, quick moving clipper systems that move south of SNE can produce nice surprises.

 

It's funny in a way how it seems the models are tuned directly into nerve-button of the winter wagon trainers .    I see posts start coming out about a specific threat and it seems like on purpose, the very next cycle starts fumbling around with it just to see how people will react - muah hahahaha.    

 

Actually, I wasn't even aware of any NY thing.   The PNA is slated to go positive here in a couple of pulses, ending some +1SD.  In fact, the signal is even a tad louder than yesterday, when the agencies both had the same idea.  The NAO is neutralizing, and the EPO is staying somewhat negative.  I tell you what ... if no specific event falls out of all that potential in the larger scope, it should result in one helluva gradient pattern again.   AO is tanking too, btw

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I think Jerry means the other minor storms. Those were borderline but man we threaded the needle in each one.

Just one of those years when everything close tipped in our favor....even the ones that had no bussiness doing so.

 

Only large exception was the bust in early Feb....we had warnings up for 1', only to be drenched by an inch of rain while the foothills of ME rejoiced.

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Just one of those years when everything close tipped in our favor....even the ones that had no bussiness doing so.

 

Only large exception was the bust in early Feb....we had warnings up for 1', only to be drenched by an inch of rain while the foothills of ME rejoiced.

 

The end of the month sure made up for it..lol. Will's favorite event. Still some of the hardest snows I have ever seen, night of 2/28/05.

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I'm not sure we are moving away from it. 

 

 

The PNA spike will probably shove things further SE in terms of temp gradients...but the PNA doesn't look like long term big positive values. Oscilliating between neutral and positive...and with a +NAO, its definitely still going to have gradient-esque properties.

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I don't know guy's, the index changes are coming.

 

 

Just remember that Jan 1994 had a neutral PNA, a negative AO, and a strongly positive NAO....that was a huge gradient pattern...but the cold anomalies were pressed well south of DC. However, the storm track still favored snow in New England. Those are similar teleconnection values that are projected for the first half of January. The PNA may be slightly more positive,..but we'll have to wait and see.

 

I don't think the SE ridge will be nearly as robust as this December, but I sitll think there will be a large temp gradient in the anomalies with the warmest being SE US and the coldest probably the northern tier of the lakes into NNE.

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Euro ensembles just keep getting colder for the EPO look.

 

I think 1/1 and 14 are two potential events to watch. The periods where the PNA spikes could be potential redeveloping clippers and Miller Bs if one can dig enough.

 

I like as how you go out in time, the anomalies grow. Leads to high confidence of EPO ridging.

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I was just looking at the stratosphere products and look out!  Big warm column over eastern Siberia, extends through the entire depth from 10hPa to the 100hPa levels, indicating a massive block and cross polar flow would evolve from N Asia into N Canada.  That's beginning D7+ --> until further notice.  That is NOT was warm first 10 days of January by any stretch.

 

I also believe the NAO is neutralizing, and that could be an early signal for actually going negative.  The AO is tanking in all members ... but I am almost thinking it is that insane AA/-EPO strength just encroaching upon and stressing the AO domain.

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Those forecasts appear to have been largely based on the 12/19 run of the CFSv2:

 

CFSv212192013.jpg

 

If so, that's kind of risky, as the CFSv2's best skill lies within 5-10 days of the succeeding month. Needless to say, one shouldn't assume that other information was not also used, but the similarity to the CFSv2 when it's outside its best skill range suggests risk.

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