CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I guess I shouldn't say it's been mundane. It certainly hasn't. And yes I am above normal with snowfall and below normal with temps..so again that is all very good. I just hate torch cutters. I know my climo and know that i don't hold CAD and know I'll lose snow as will most folks south of pike. That's why I worry so much. So when someone starts talking about a cutter in the wintertime, when there's good snowpack..i start to shake and have diarreaha. I just wish we could thru 3-4 weeks without one. Or if we have a mild up..why can't they just be in the 40's, rain and then be gone? Instead they have to be near 60 and 6 inches of snow disappears faster than the straps of Ray's leggins when he's measuring snow in neighbor's yards. You have to accept it at some point. We don't live in a place that has wire to wire snowpack. This is why leading up to events and as the event is occurring is so enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 You have to accept it at some point. We don't live in a place that has wire to wire snowpack. This is why leading up to events and as the event is occurring is so enjoyable. excellent post, Kev is a riot, funny stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 By the time winter comes back its half over Happens every year and just when you think you get used to it, it's depressing all over again. I wouldn't mind just having seasonal temps with some snow events peppered in instead of these wild swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 You have to accept it at some point. We don't live in a place that has wire to wire snowpack. This is why leading up to events and as the event is occurring is so enjoyable. I'd agree with that overall..but this winter in particular we havn't been to fully enjoy them at 100%. I'd say the enjoyment level has been in the 60-75% tile because we knew looming over our heads was a nasty cutter. The week in December was good because we had about 10 days after the first snowfall..but last week we knew what was coming..and it was kind of like drinking 20 beers in one night and feeling great..only to throw up all over your wife that night in bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 That was an impressively warm run of the operational Euro last night ... I mentioned yesterday not to get too warm with the expectations, and that I thought the pattern was really more like a winter-relaxation sort of scenario but now I dunno - heh. That's a solid three days of +850's on a WSW continental flow. Could be 60F with tepidly warm sun in that depiction. That would have to constitute a thaw, albeit perhaps briefer than some of those of lore. Maybe that is the way to go, even though the GFS is more transient and with cool-warm turn-overs. ... Thing is, I have never experienced an end to end winter in New England. Something always happens to disrupt and go unseasonable ... be it a Jan thaw, Feb thaw, x-mass rain storm... I mean something always murks it up for a stint. 1995-1996 was probably the most prolific winter season for winter weather in modern times, and even it blew the coop for 10 days mid-way through. We'll see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 LOL at the GFS op. That is a Miller B pattern. I think looking at the GFS at the most basic, non specific way has been the way to go quite often. Euro too. We'll have some cooling around the 15th-18th with some threats that depending on timing could be white or wet. A nice cold dump after that but again transient and we'll walk the oscillating line. All we've got going on here for the next 7 days is a more protected period of mild. It looks good after the 15th or so, but I don't see anything locking in and I see the weather continuing to alternate between icebox and torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I guess I shouldn't say it's been mundane. It certainly hasn't. And yes I am above normal with snowfall and below normal with temps..so again that is all very good. I just hate torch cutters. I know my climo and know that i don't hold CAD and know I'll lose snow as will most folks south of pike. That's why I worry so much. So when someone starts talking about a cutter in the wintertime, when there's good snowpack..i start to shake and have diarreaha. I just wish we could thru 3-4 weeks without one. Or if we have a mild up..why can't they just be in the 40's, rain and then be gone? Instead they have to be near 60 and 6 inches of snow disappears faster than the straps of Ray's leggins when he's measuring snow in neighbor's yards. really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I'd agree with that overall..but this winter in particular we havn't been to fully enjoy them at 100%. I'd say the enjoyment level has been in the 60-75% tile because we knew looming over our heads was a nasty cutter. The week in December was good because we had about 10 days after the first snowfall..but last week we knew what was coming..and it was kind of like drinking 20 beers in one night and feeling great..only to throw up all over your wife that night in bed You are killing me....lol. Hey I went through hell up to a year ago and enjoyed whatever I got. And for whatever reason I decided to put myself through more hell by talking about a storm that would dump 6-10" over you and give me rain. Don't ever say I'm a snow snob..lol. In any case, I just enjoy the moment. I can't worry about cutters and things like that..just deep snow as it is falling. I'm starting to get that itch..that feeling of a possibly real good pattern for a time...but I want to see how it looks after this weekend's mild wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Its funny to see how as a chunk fo the PV retrogrades over AK/Bering Straight...that coincides with our torch coming up. Almost never fails. That is why we always say fear the AK/Bering Death Vortex. Luckily for us, it is transient, and continues to retrograde toward the Aleutians and set up a really nice -EPO/+PNA pattern for us. Agree...back in 11-12 it set up there and never budged. Thus our almost wall to wall inferno save for one week in January, horrendous winter for snowlovers. )heck we couldn't even get rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 LOL..what threat are you talking about/? Right....bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. It harkens back to I think what 40/70 has often said (or at least I think it was him), if only we lived at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It harkens back to I think what 40/70 has often said, if only we lived at 500mb. Many times we have patterns resemble epic years, but it only takes a very slight difference to totally change the temp and snow distribution. I get what Jerry and Steve are saying regarding the behavior across the CONUS, but that was a special year for me and despite the overall look....it's not there quite yet. Hopefully those two human Dead Sea Scrolls will be correct by March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. Everyone expects carbon copies. Kevin calls this mundane but I suspect he's above normal to date in snow and below in temperatures since 11/1. He also forgot last years great torches in early to mid January when he closed the shades. And dont forget the post 12/26/10 snow obliterating torch with no meaningful snow for another 10 days. People forget.... At the half way point, I'd give the first half a B for cold, and a B- for snow imby. Its been pretty cold, but as far as snowfall goes, nothing extraordinary. Only a couple of days after 12/17 of snowpack over a foot...peaking at 16". The cutters have kept this one from being great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 LOL at the GFS op. That is a Miller B pattern. Can we get the Atl to cooperate. Looks more or less neutral for the time being with a trend positive in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Can we get the Atl to cooperate. Looks more or less neutral for the time being with a trend positive in the extended. Good question. We may have one of those weird eastern Greenland ridges for a time, but I would hardly even call it east based for now.. This is all PNA with redevelopers nearby. Of course even with a +PNA you run the risk of redeveloping lows very close by...but I don't think you can complain about the overall look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Hopefully those two human Dead Sea Scrolls will be correct by March.Ha! I get it too, to some extent, but it's almost getting to the point at times where it seems like an analog that was thrown out in late summer and yes there are similarities, but now it will get ridden to the end no matter what. And now folks are looking for every shred of evidence that it's the same or that it's not. We are stuck with this dialog through April most likely, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Many times we have patterns resemble epic years, but it only takes a very slight difference to totally change the temp and snow distribution. I get what Jerry and Steve are saying regarding the behavior across the CONUS, but that was a special year for me and despite the overall look....it's not there quite yet. Hopefully those two human Dead Sea Scrolls will be correct by March. Luck always plays a role because the world is chatoic. The Sox could be better next year, but not win the WS....or a given player can have identical peripheral stats, yet have it translate to drastically different generals statistical output, such as HR, AVG, ERA, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. Everyone expects carbon copies. Kevin calls this mundane but I suspect he's above normal to date in snow and below in temperatures since 11/1. He also forgot last years great torches in early to mid January when he closed the shades. And dont forget the post 12/26/10 snow obliterating torch with no meaningful snow for another 10 days. People forget.... At the half way point, I'd give the first half a B for cold, and a B- for snow imby. Its been pretty cold, but as far as snowfall goes, nothing extraordinary. Only a couple of days after 12/17 of snowpack over a foot...peaking at 16". The cutters have kept this one from being great. That's close to my thoughts. Living closer to the ocean and being in bigger snows for round 2 last week I'd nudge my snow grade to B+. Well above climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Luck always plays a role because the world is chatoic. The Sox could be better next year, but not win the WS....or a given player can have identical peripheral stats, yet have it translate to drastically different generals statistical output, such as HR, AVG, ERA, etc. Right. This is true as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 That was an impressively warm run of the operational Euro last night ... I mentioned yesterday not to get too warm with the expectations, and that I thought the pattern was really more like a winter-relaxation sort of scenario but now I dunno - heh. That's a solid three days of +850's on a WSW continental flow. Could be 60F with tepidly warm sun in that depiction. That would have to constitute a thaw, albeit perhaps briefer than some of those of lore. Maybe that is the way to go, even though the GFS is more transient and with cool-warm turn-overs. ... Thing is, I have never experienced an end to end winter in New England. Something always happens to disrupt and go unseasonable ... be it a Jan thaw, Feb thaw, x-mass rain storm... I mean something always murks it up for a stint. 1995-1996 was probably the most prolific winter season for winter weather in modern times, and even it blew the coop for 10 days mid-way through. We'll see.. Maybe a few napes will tan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Incidentally, for those of us who we're concerned about the dry fall...not dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 You are killing me....lol. Hey I went through hell up to a year ago and enjoyed whatever I got. And for whatever reason I decided to put myself through more hell by talking about a storm that would dump 6-10" over you and give me rain. Don't ever say I'm a snow snob..lol. In any case, I just enjoy the moment. I can't worry about cutters and things like that..just deep snow as it is falling. I'm starting to get that itch..that feeling of a possibly real good pattern for a time...but I want to see how it looks after this weekend's mild wx. is this weekend one of those deals where we'll see the current 40's being forecast warmed to like 55-60 by the time Friday is here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 That's close to my thoughts. Living closer to the ocean and being in bigger snows for round 2 last week I'd nudge my snow grade to B+. Well above climo. That's close to my thoughts. Living closer to the ocean and being in bigger snows for round 2 last week I'd nudge my snow grade to B+. Well above climo. Agreed. How much do you have on the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Incidentally, for those of us who we're concerned about the dry fall...not dry! I'll have some humble pie on that one. Going back to thanksgiving, it's been stormy overall to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 is this weekend one of those deals where we'll see the current 40's being forecast warmed to like 55-60 by the time Friday is here? Most likely. Not sure about 60F...but I think we'll get into the 50s for sure. There's some timing problems though on the models...the Euro doesn't phase the southern stream and we end up with probably 40s on Saturday/Sunday and the more mild wx waits until Monday. So there's no reason to forecast 55F yet on Saturday...it still might not be that warm. Friday is too early for the warmth. It will be warmer, but still in the 30s probably. Maybe some low 40s tickling the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 is this weekend one of those deals where we'll see the current 40's being forecast warmed to like 55-60 by the time Friday is here? I don't see 60 on Saturday, but Sunday and Monday could be very mild, esp Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I don't see 60 on Saturday, but Sunday and Monday could be very mild, esp Monday. If I was on air..i would start talking about 60's early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 If I was on air..i would start talking about 60's early next weekTanuary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Tanuary? You think you'll escape the torch up with any snowpack before the freezedown comes back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 GEFS were sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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