HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It is hard to convey science in 10-20 words...that is really the crux of the issue in social media. You have to carefully choose your words, otherwise it can get taken out of context so easily. Not a lot of mets are able to do that...or they don't quite understand that hyping on twitter can go viral pretty quick even if they intend to reel it in when they go on air or write their "official forecast". Hell on this forum where we can write more in depth thoughts, we still have people take our words out of context all the time. Tippy would never be able to do Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 It is hard to convey science in 10-20 words...that is really the crux of the issue in social media. You have to carefully choose your words, otherwise it can get taken out of context so easily. Not a lot of mets are able to do that...or they don't quite understand that hyping on twitter can go viral pretty quick even if they intend to reel it in when they go on air or write their "official forecast". Hell on this forum where we can write more in depth thoughts, we still have people take our words out of context all the time. Tweeting horrible snow maps knowing they are wrong, unstable thoughts on winter storms and 2 Cat II hurricanes within 6 weeks...just some examples. It goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Tippy would never be able to do Twitter Burgeoning twittersphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 By the time winter comes back its half over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We'll have to see how this goes as we get closer, but the analog dates for 1/18 down the road have some pretty significant cold shots near or just after the analog date. This could signal that we see another round of arctic intrusion into the region. This time though, it would likely be centered further east near NE. The analog dates include early February 1995, early January 1981, mid January 1965, mid/late January 1961, and early February 1962. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Feb 1995 was bitter after the snow. The others were pretty dam cold too upon looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Stick to this forum. All you need IMHO.basically although I have gotten some incredible stuff from Tweeter. PV anamoly the Met in AK who used to post here is fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 OKaaay, i think that about covers hyping.... I always see EPO being thrown around but how much of an affect does the WPO have on our weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 We'll have to see how this goes as we get closer, but the analog dates for 1/18 down the road have some pretty significant cold shots near or just after the analog date. This could signal that we see another round of arctic intrusion into the region. This time though, it would likely be centered further east near NE. The analog dates include early February 1995, early January 1981, mid January 1965, mid/late January 1961, and early February 1962. some great snows near those dates too. 1961, big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 OKaaay, i think that about covers hyping.... I always see EPO being thrown around but how much of an affect does the WPO have on our weather? Ask Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 WPAC warm pool alive and well for now. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 WPAC warm pool alive and well for now. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml This would more or less keep the west ridge/ east trough pattern in place correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 OKaaay, i think that about covers hyping.... I always see EPO being thrown around but how much of an affect does the WPO have on our weather? WPO is just a further west version of the EPO...its not as strong in correlating to our cold weather because there are certain setups where a -WPO can coincide with a vortex in AK...usually that isn't the case but it does happen sometimes...and when it does, we will not benefit from the WPO cross polar flow...it all flows into AK and then gets bottled up there. But most of the time, we will be colder than normal in a -WPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 What would it take to get that western atlantic ridging to build north toward Greenland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 This would more or less keep the west ridge/ east trough pattern in place correct? It can HELP keep it in place, but there are other factors that can overwhelm it. My point is that it's just good to see it where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. Everyone expects carbon copies. Kevin calls this mundane but I suspect he's above normal to date in snow and below in temperatures since 11/1. He also forgot last years great torches in early to mid January when he closed the shades. And dont forget the post 12/26/10 snow obliterating torch with no meaningful snow for another 10 days. People forget.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Its funny to see how as a chunk fo the PV retrogrades over AK/Bering Straight...that coincides with our torch coming up. Almost never fails. That is why we always say fear the AK/Bering Death Vortex. Luckily for us, it is transient, and continues to retrograde toward the Aleutians and set up a really nice -EPO/+PNA pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. Everyone expects carbon copies. Kevin calls this mundane but I suspect he's above normal to date in snow and below in temperatures since 11/1. He also forgot last years great torches in early to mid January when he closed the shades. And dont forget the post 12/26/10 snow obliterating torch with no meaningful snow for another 10 days. People forget.... He also probably forgot the 2-3 week torch in December (remember his famous "days and days of snow" that turned into a rainstorm? LOL) that didn't break until near Christmas. This winter has been much colder than last winter thus far. Long ways to go. This upcoming torch will mitigate some of the negative we will have built up by tomorrow night, but it won't come all that close to erasing them. I'd like to see a nice 2-3 week stretch though without a cutter or mild period...hopefully 1/18 or so marks the beginning of such a stretch. Too early to tell right now if it is or not...analogs are mixed. Some had a 3-4 week period of great winter and others were one week on and one week off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. Everyone expects carbon copies. Kevin calls this mundane but I suspect he's above normal to date in snow and below in temperatures since 11/1. He also forgot last years great torches in early to mid January when he closed the shades. And dont forget the post 12/26/10 snow obliterating torch with no meaningful snow for another 10 days. People forget.... Well there are similarities, but that is also like saying a cutoff low south of Long Island is like December 1992. Sure there are similarities, but you have to be careful with special events like that. I feel the same with '93/'94 being thrown around. There are similarities no doubt...but I feel we throw that season around too much. I am not arguing it can't work out...but it's almost a disservice to throw that year around right this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 And to those who say we're not in a 1993-94 pattern ponder this : Sensible wx is less intense this year but I dare say the upper levels are as similar vs any other winter since. Everyone expects carbon copies. Kevin calls this mundane but I suspect he's above normal to date in snow and below in temperatures since 11/1. He also forgot last years great torches in early to mid January when he closed the shades. And dont forget the post 12/26/10 snow obliterating torch with no meaningful snow for another 10 days. People forget....exactly, and Jerry this will bring back memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Well there are similarities, but that is also like saying a cutoff low south of Long Island is like December 1992. Sure there are similarities, but you have to be careful with special events like that. I feel the same with '93/'94 being thrown around. There are similarities no doubt...but I feel we throw that season around too much. I am not arguing it can't work out...but it's almost a disservice to throw that year around right this moment. Yeah the duration isn't there (at least yet) like '93-'94...we've seen spurts similar to that season. But give me 2-3 week longer duration arctic cold stretch with several snows before really comparing the two years. I'll even deal with a very short-lived cutter intrusion. We did several times that winter too...but we did have a cutter-free 2 week stretch both from about 1/3/94-1/17/94 and then again from 1/29/94 to 2/14/94 before the mid-February furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Well there are similarities, but that is also like saying a cutoff low south of Long Island is like December 1992. Sure there are similarities, but you have to be careful with special events like that. I feel the same with '93/'94 being thrown around. There are similarities no doubt...but I feel we throw that season around too much. I am not arguing it can't work out...but it's almost a disservice to throw that year around right this moment.You are totally missing what Jerry is saying here. I posted the same as he just did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 There is a reason records set in 94 are being broken in most of the country, it's because upper levels are similar, that's all Jerry is saying. If your backyard doesn't have the same results is not important. The comparison is obviously good does not mean it continues. I would argue we are heading into a 60/61, 70/71 type regime. If we get blocking in February look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 There is a reason records set in 94 are being broken in most of the country, it's because upper levels are similar, that's all Jerry is saying. If your backyard doesn't have the same results is not important. The comparison is obviously good does not mean it continues. I would argue we are heading into a 60/61, 70/71 type regime. If we get blocking in February look out. 60/61, 70/71? are you talking 1961 and 1971 winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 60/61, 70/71? are you talking 1961 and 1971 winters?not summer lol, hopefully today's GEFS and EURO ENS are correct in their depictions 1961 is lead analog for 5H setup. TbD if they are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 i had the weather channel on for maybe five minutes.....Stephanie Abrams compared the PV to a kit kat bar, then she made fun of a temperature map trying to be funny and i thought that maybe if the red dress she had on wasnt so tight she might be able to think more clearly.....omg what has twc become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 i had the weather channel on for maybe five minutes.....Stephanie Abrams compared the PV to a kit kat bar, then she made fun of a temperature map trying to be funny and i thought that maybe if the red dress she had on wasnt so tight she might be able to think more clearly.....omg what has twc become well looks like you got my interest up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 I guess I shouldn't say it's been mundane. It certainly hasn't. And yes I am above normal with snowfall and below normal with temps..so again that is all very good. I just hate torch cutters. I know my climo and know that i don't hold CAD and know I'll lose snow as will most folks south of pike. That's why I worry so much. So when someone starts talking about a cutter in the wintertime, when there's good snowpack..i start to shake and have diarreaha. I just wish we could thru 3-4 weeks without one. Or if we have a mild up..why can't they just be in the 40's, rain and then be gone? Instead they have to be near 60 and 6 inches of snow disappears faster than the straps of Ray's leggins when he's measuring snow in neighbor's yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 You are totally missing what Jerry is saying here. I posted the same as he just did yesterday. Then I have no clue what you are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 LOL at the GFS op. That is a Miller B pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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